cd2play
Member
Blah.
. ?
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern October Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
. ?
Euro improving the pacific each run after hr144 onward.
I miss Arctic highs coming out of Canada and suppressing lower pressure to our south with a deep H5 vortex over us moving on but that just doesn’t happen anymore, unless it happens to our west 
Mmm 
12z eps plumes should be a good time 40 degree spreads??
People don’t like to talk about that stuff yet in here. That comes with time but it’s certainly there
A deep late season chill is all we should expect for OCTOBER lol y’all make it seem like it should be snowing or something here ?? this is perfect Halloween weather REJOICE
I’m actually kind of shocked the euro is more excited about this thing than the Gfs usually that’s the other way around lol the upgrade might be on our side this year ? we will see what happy hour gets us
The power of blocking is a real and beautiful thing. This is the type of stuff that will save patterns in the winter time and shunt that SER let’s just hope it actually shows up this winter
I mean I’m just saying man that’s 530dm heights that stuff typically means deep cold, that’s a very anomalous trough for October normally that would bring anomalous cold not barely below normal to average
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
Avalanche
Member
Things just dont work like they use to.
It's weird I glanced at the cpc analogs for D7 which was close to the euro. The years that were November were really cold the October years were cool but nothing eye popping
FWD is now forecasting 88*F for Monday and Tuesday.
Bet this thing looks structured and photogenic in person 
First thread worthy severe setup of fall ? ?
2nd thread worthy, unless you mean specifically for the SE...
For the SE
DFW's average high by 10/28 (when the next "cool down" is currently projected) would be down to 74*F.
So even with temps possibly falling, we may still be above average by then, lol.
So even with temps possibly falling, we may still be above average by then, lol.
Okay Ohio… 
Something we can all agree on… daylight savings time ending soon which means we get model runs quick asf ?? And we don’t have to stay up too late to see the euro and ensembles
Wet fart 
Ah it’s the ICON we TOSS.. Gfs will surely give us a severe dose
Cold front that will bring a return to exactly what it should be this time of year 
That is very close to getting really cold in a hurry.
Back the pacific trough up a few hundred/several hundred miles and I’m more convinced, we’ve seen how it can completely ruin/alter a pattern if it ends up buckling/adjusting further east. For exThat is very close to getting really cold in a hurry.
Now it’s this
If it happens where it adjusts further east again, it’s just gonna become a fast trough that’s in and out quickly then another ridge because how fast/progressive the pac jet is. I will say tho the wavebreaking in the Atlantic looks legit and that’s 1 step to making it harder for us to get warm
I wouldn’t be feeling a more optimistic if the Euro wasn’t following the same trend with the improving Pacific. That said this general theme is how I expect winter to go; Very progressive. When it lines up it’s really good and when it doesn’t it’s really bad.
Your not lying when you say when it lines up to be good it can be really good, some of the biggest snow events (for the Carolinas at least) have occurred with that same pacific trough but a wavebreak under a -NAO block
Thank you! I'm just holding out hope we get a decent snow or two. I think we all know below average temps are very very unlikely.
We’ll have some snow/ice threat threads that’s for sure, it’s hard to get something big in the SE but it’s hard to also get nothing in 3-4 months
BHS1975
Member
BufordWX
Member
Well this is a little surprising to see.
Well this is certainly more impressive that blocking trying to give us several goes at some cool pushes and dare I say this is getting a bit colder but further out so less likely but we will monitor 00z of course 
Yes … storm sirens going off in Jasper.
Hmmm 18z Gfs seemed to have followed the 12z euro .. we need more model runs though 
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
Just the start to a blockbuster winter! It’s coming boys, get your firewood!
Yeah i dont know if It has any staying power but certainly a change of pace we needed and just in time for Halloween hopefully so that would be nice .. we need that blocking pattern to stay around to keep upper level low possibilities and help mediate a shotty pacific pattern right now .. but it’s hard stuff to do
Current Temps
Current Radar
Morning temps from the HRRR
Maybe a shower in the morning on the way to work
A few areas of heavier rain with the ongoing storms overnight
Temps tomorrow afternoon from the HRRR
And finally maybe a few showers in ERN NC tomorrow
Current Radar
Morning temps from the HRRR
Maybe a shower in the morning on the way to work
A few areas of heavier rain with the ongoing storms overnight
Temps tomorrow afternoon from the HRRR
And finally maybe a few showers in ERN NC tomorrow
Mr. Golf
Member
I've heard possibilities of a -MT and propagation of mjo that should realign the Pacific, especially for mid November and further out. Even if it happens, its rather difficult to get any sustained cold and snow chances other than the higher elevations. Any merit to that?