• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern October Thread

As an avid watcher of models and follower of the never wrong Maxar ;), it is quite obvious that we’re headed for a much colder pattern within a week or so. A near to BN nov is very much on the table in much if the US.
I saw an article a few weeks back talking about the temperatures of last few falls. September and October have been well above normal but November below normal. Sad thing is November below temps haven't correlated to winter temps; at least for the last couple of years.
 
1/1 is not really statistically significant. But, how does he usually do? I do enjoy reading his stuff every winter.
I dont know everyone Was ratting on him after I posted his tweet and I said we should keep track of how his calls go throughout the season and see how reliable the calls were by the end
 
November of 2000, was amazeballs in Greenville! 3 or 4 events or flurries, iirc! Spring from late December on tho!
It was actually right after the first week of January 2001 that the pattern flipped that year… there was a snow event across the Deep South on New Year Eve and Day (the Independence Bowl was played in a snowstorm). The cold from November through New Year’s was very impressive indeed. The CLT area had that 2-4” snow a few days before Thanksgiving and despite the HUGE bust in early December, there were a couple of light dustings in the week before Christmas. When the pattern flipped though, it flipped!! Full on SER for basically the rest of the winter. That was a 2nd year Niña
 
Still not exactly the best way for legitimate cold but it’s certainly not bad either, I’m honestly wanting to chase the first legit mountain snow this year so I’m needing some legitimate cold airmass to enter and drop some. Still waiting on a -EPO/-WPO driven stuff
Have a feeling this is the best we’re going to get for November certainly enough for some mountain stuff I would assume
 
It was actually right after the first week of January 2001 that the pattern flipped that year… there was a snow event across the Deep South on New Year Eve and Day (the Independence Bowl was played in a snowstorm). The cold from November through New Year’s was very impressive indeed. The CLT area had that 2-4” snow a few days before Thanksgiving and despite the HUGE bust in early December, there were a couple of light dustings in the week before Christmas. When the pattern flipped though, it flipped!! Full on SER for basically the rest of the winter. That was a 2nd year Niña
There was a pretty good snow in Mid December 2000. 3-4" in the northern Atl suburbs. And then in late December 2000 I remember watching the Independence Bowl and it was snowing like crazy in Shreveport !
 
By far the most impressive look for cold this fall (it’s still not great for legitimate cold), retrogression into a Aleutian low which will help drive a western US ridge, this is sort of a evolution you’d see with a +EAMT but the SFC pattern isn’t to reminiscent of one at all, this look in winter if I saw it would make me a little excited A9C71268-8DE5-4507-ABC8-1111473F16E5.png68B731FC-DFD3-4C57-A716-70E5C1F96D99.pngD2AE2E4E-FD3F-428C-BBA1-674517A7D690.png79CBFF16-44DE-4E78-9670-4CF58C698AEE.png
 
By far the most impressive look for cold this fall (it’s still not great for legitimate cold), retrogression into a Aleutian low which will help drive a western US ridge, this is sort of a evolution you’d see with a +EAMT but the SFC pattern isn’t to reminiscent of one at all, this look in winter if I saw it would make me a little excited View attachment 93360View attachment 93357View attachment 93358View attachment 93359
Also finally looks like we got the first legitimate -WPO starting to get going here in a while which will help shuffle some of the cold from the other side/Alaska and bring it our way, a actual legitimate Arctic feed and not just polar pac garbage. just need a ridge to go up towards AK and we can dislodge some of that air towards us if we retrograde enough
 
Last edited:
Keep an eye on Rick in the E Pacific as well as 98W in the West Pac.

Certainly would be a record breaking storm for the Gulf of Alaska if the Euro is correct. Downstream wave pattern emanating from a trough like this would send a motherload of arctic air down the spine of the Rockies to kickoff November.

ecmwf_mslpa_npac_10.png of
 
Back
Top