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Pattern October Thread

Webberweather53 said:
Keep an eye on Rick in the E Pacific as well as 98W in the West Pac.

Certainly would be a record breaking storm for the Gulf of Alaska if the Euro is correct. Downstream wave pattern emanating from a trough like this would send a motherload of arctic air down the spine of the Rockies to kickoff November.

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BOMB CYCLONE per accuweather. 8 feet of accum snow on mtn passes.
 
When the Pacific jet finally decides to relax/retract & the strong planetary-scale trough retrogrades from the Gulf of Alaska, that'll be when it gets legitimately cold in the east-central CONUS as the amount of cross-polar flow will start to increase into N America & heights begin to rise over NW N America w/ the mean trough pulling back towards the Aleutians.

We're still on track to see this occur sometime in early Nov. Hard to get into too much detail this far out, but the overall planetary-scale wave behavior is pointing towards an anomalously cooler stretch of weather along/east of the Rockies after Halloween.
 
I do have a question. Is this pattern evolution tied in to mainly the -MT event shaping up and phase 1 of mjo or does it have to do with something else? I think I mentioned this earlier this week.
 
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Mr. Golf said:
I do have a question. Is this pattern evolution tied in to mainly the -MT event shaping up and phase 1 of mjo or does it have to do with something else? I think I mentioned this earlier this week.
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Less E Asia positive torque still can have a similar effect as negative mountain torque because relatively speaking both instances will favor a retreat of the N Pacific jet as the downstream baroclinicity decreases. In any case, planetary waves often retrograde westward under their own power irrespective of what the MJO, etc are doing due to planetary vorticity advection (difference in coriolis w/ latitude causes very large + strong troughs to retrograde west against the mean flow). This mechanism is definitely at play here and 98W is also contributing to what the height field looks like over N America in early Nov.
 
Webberweather53 said:
When the Pacific jet finally decides to relax/retract & the strong planetary-scale trough retrogrades from the Gulf of Alaska, that'll be when it gets legitimately cold in the east-central CONUS as the amount of cross-polar flow will start to increase into N America & heights begin to rise over NW N America w/ the mean trough pulling back towards the Aleutians.

We're still on track to see this occur sometime in early Nov. Hard to get into too much detail this far out, but the overall planetary-scale wave behavior is pointing towards an anomalously cooler stretch of weather along/east of the Rockies after Halloween.
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I will say one of our TV mets has been hyping November for awhile. We'll see ? he thinks we see a snow before Thanksgiving
 
Webberweather53 said:
Less E Asia positive torque still can have a similar effect as negative mountain torque because relatively speaking both instances will favor a retreat of the N Pacific jet as the downstream baroclinicity decreases. In any case, planetary waves often retrograde westward under their own power irrespective of what the MJO, etc are doing due to planetary vorticity advection (difference in coriolis w/ latitude causes very large + strong troughs to retrograde west against the mean flow). This mechanism is definitely at play here and 98W is also contributing to what the height field looks like over N America in early Nov.
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Thanks webber. Hopefully it's a pattern change that has some legs because outside of higher elevations in the south, it's rather difficult to see a good winter storm unless a very anomalous pattern ensues imo
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Less E Asia positive torque still can have a similar effect as negative mountain torque because relatively speaking both instances will favor a retreat of the N Pacific jet as the downstream baroclinicity decreases. In any case, planetary waves often retrograde westward under their own power irrespective of what the MJO, etc are doing due to planetary vorticity advection (difference in coriolis w/ latitude causes very large + strong troughs to retrograde west against the mean flow). This mechanism is definitely at play here and 98W is also contributing to what the height field looks like over N America in early Nov.
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I know JB likes to hype stuff, but he posted the euro ensembles showing the epo/wpo trending negative
 
Brent said:
I will say one of our TV mets has been hyping November for awhile. We'll see ? he thinks we see a snow before Thanksgiving
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It does seem like the further west you are the better odds you have of seeing ice/snow in November historically. I'm pretty sure Dallas has seen more winter events in November than Atlanta has.
 
Brent said:
I'm tempted to laugh too because he predicted the end of the 90s like a month before they actually ended

But it wouldn't be unheard of either especially with talk of the pattern change. Heck last year had an ice storm at the end of October in most of the state
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I'm ready for a midsouth ice storm ??
 
Chazwin said:
Is it just me or are there a lot of areas in the south that are way overdue for a major ice storm? I know the NC southern Piedmont and SC Upstate haven’t had a big one since December 2005
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We had 3/4- 1in inch ice in December 2018 and they didnt issue a ISW until the event was about done.
 
Chazwin said:
Is it just me or are there a lot of areas in the south that are way overdue for a major ice storm? I know the NC southern Piedmont and SC Upstate haven’t had a big one since December 2005
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Yeah I never saw one the last few winters in Alabama or any of the 6 years I was in Dallas(they had a big one in 2013 though)
 
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