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Pattern October Thread

NickyBGuarantee said:
Also @GaWx you better start getting in on the action before these models flip on us!
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I’m thoroughly enjoying the models continuing to forecast the big change. Going to be enjoyable. I’m not worried. And we have climo on our side to favor overall cooling for the next 2.5 months along with it remaining mainly cool the subsequent 2.5 months. So any subsequent warmth will be more than counteracted later. The sun’s warmth is losing the battle as it gets lower in the sky.

Meanwhile, I’m about to stroll outside in the pleasantly cool evening. Low 60s temp with mid 50s dewpoint is pretty good.
 
No storms here front passed too early but man it feels incredible out patio open ?

And oh yeah after that 80 on Tuesday there is nothing even close after thatScreenshot_20211024-193548.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Less E Asia positive torque still can have a similar effect as negative mountain torque because relatively speaking both instances will favor a retreat of the N Pacific jet as the downstream baroclinicity decreases. In any case, planetary waves often retrograde westward under their own power irrespective of what the MJO, etc are doing due to planetary vorticity advection (difference in coriolis w/ latitude causes very large + strong troughs to retrograde west against the mean flow). This mechanism is definitely at play here and 98W is also contributing to what the height field looks like over N America in early Nov.
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Web do these mtn torgue, continental torgues that cause planetary waves move around the globe like fronts? Forgive my ignorance. But are these the bigger wx pattern drivers of things like longwave troughs, MJO, teleconnections,etc
Seems the - NAO, + PNA, end results are caused by these torgue events, which create planetary waves, which effect TC signals.
If thats so, which im probably way off here. Then why dont, or can we just forecast, figure out torgue events?
 
Apparently, we had a rogue t'storm come through a little while ago (I was asleep).

It doesn't seem to have been severe though.

1635129415381.png
 
Also, a million dollar question is going to be whether DFW makes it through the enter month of October without a sub-70*F high.

Thursday and Friday are both cutting it close, but right now forecast highs are just above 70*F.

Once those 2 days pass though, we should be in the clear.
 
Winds are ripping! Had a gust to 44 mph last hour! If it’s 44 degrees, is that a 0 degree windchill?
 
NorthDFWwx said:
Also, a million dollar question is going to be whether DFW makes it through the enter month of October without a sub-70*F high.

Thursday and Friday are both cutting it close, but right now forecast highs are just above 70*F.

Once those 2 days pass though, we should be in the clear.
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Definitely done here after Tuesday. Nothing even close and for the first time temps are dropping throughout the 10 day. Fall is here
 
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