Nice little thundershower pushed through in Jasper. Tornado warned area was to the north, but it was canceled relatively quickly. Not sure of any issues. Quick shot of rain and some good thunder.
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Pattern October Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Nice little thundershower pushed through in Jasper. Tornado warned area was to the north, but it was canceled relatively quickly. Not sure of any issues. Quick shot of rain and some good thunder.
Mr. Golf
Member
We would want to see a colder pattern develop with longer wavelengths instead of shorter wavelengths. Something else that's of importance moving forward
Today's high was 84*F at DFW.
Oh the Gfs 00z going to make people here scramble tomorrow ??? it’s really funny seeing these model discrepancies
00z icon: wet fart for severe weather and barely drops our temps with the first wave and then a fairly hearty upper level system but overall it’s cold air is eh and just really brings us back to averages
00z cmc: much more hearty with the severe threat and in that case pulls more cold air down in a quick shot of below average temps we rise before the next big blow with a low pressure developing on the edge of that upper level low and riding up the coast and then it brings down that below average air .. nothing tremendously cold but heck of a drop from how things have gone and more than the icon showed
And last but not least the main course of the night
00z Gfs: at first glance it’s eh with the first wave like the icon but brings a quick temp relaxing then shoots us above average before the nor’easter type system appears but it’s pretty lazy with it’s cold air production and skirts off real fast … but directly after it gets caught in a storm of blocking and we go straight into late fall early winter mode for almost the entire run .. boy oh boy that would certainly shock the system highs in the 50s lows in the 30s oh and of course in fantasy land we have the first onset ice cold rain CAD event .. GOOD HEAVENS
00z cmc: much more hearty with the severe threat and in that case pulls more cold air down in a quick shot of below average temps we rise before the next big blow with a low pressure developing on the edge of that upper level low and riding up the coast and then it brings down that below average air .. nothing tremendously cold but heck of a drop from how things have gone and more than the icon showed
And last but not least the main course of the night
00z Gfs: at first glance it’s eh with the first wave like the icon but brings a quick temp relaxing then shoots us above average before the nor’easter type system appears but it’s pretty lazy with it’s cold air production and skirts off real fast … but directly after it gets caught in a storm of blocking and we go straight into late fall early winter mode for almost the entire run .. boy oh boy that would certainly shock the system highs in the 50s lows in the 30s oh and of course in fantasy land we have the first onset ice cold rain CAD event .. GOOD HEAVENS
Too bad probably no support for this but it’s looking pretty likely we go average to below average by Halloween time
Some warmth, some transient cool shots on the Euro and D10 eps, I've seen worse.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
6 days out severe weather area ???. 
Getting closer! Start the November thread! ?
Thanks for reminding me
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Euro looks more ominous with windfields. Wish euro had instability as a parameter to see. None the less may be a decent severe weather episode. As it's been a while since I've seen a 6 day out severe area. Looks like difluent flow aloft and with. A surface low in north Missouri surface winds will be veering from the southeast. So there should be ample amount of instability.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
ForsythSnow
Moderator
At least we're getting rid of this short term heat. Didn't seem to last on the modeling for too long.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
My goodness. I know this doesn't mean squat. But it shows similar events have produced some tornadoes in this setup
Went ahead and started threads for both potential severe episodes coming up.
Certainly like the closed low feature on the euro for severe potential
Yeah I didn’t expect the mid 80 temp train to last long but it certainly looked impressive
smast16
Member
What's the potential for this to trend more of a CAD in the CAD regions?
First legit chilly/windy/ partly to mostly cloudy/ maybe highs in the 50s day coming?
Probably enough CAD to keep severe away not enough to get widespread rain for your area