Something we can all agree on… daylight savings time ending soon which means we get model runs quick asf ?? And we don’t have to stay up too late to see the euro and ensembles
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Pattern October Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Wet fart 
Ah it’s the ICON we TOSS.. Gfs will surely give us a severe dose
Cold front that will bring a return to exactly what it should be this time of year 
That is very close to getting really cold in a hurry.
Back the pacific trough up a few hundred/several hundred miles and I’m more convinced, we’ve seen how it can completely ruin/alter a pattern if it ends up buckling/adjusting further east. For exThat is very close to getting really cold in a hurry.
Now it’s this
If it happens where it adjusts further east again, it’s just gonna become a fast trough that’s in and out quickly then another ridge because how fast/progressive the pac jet is. I will say tho the wavebreaking in the Atlantic looks legit and that’s 1 step to making it harder for us to get warm
I wouldn’t be feeling a more optimistic if the Euro wasn’t following the same trend with the improving Pacific. That said this general theme is how I expect winter to go; Very progressive. When it lines up it’s really good and when it doesn’t it’s really bad.
Your not lying when you say when it lines up to be good it can be really good, some of the biggest snow events (for the Carolinas at least) have occurred with that same pacific trough but a wavebreak under a -NAO block
Thank you! I'm just holding out hope we get a decent snow or two. I think we all know below average temps are very very unlikely.
We’ll have some snow/ice threat threads that’s for sure, it’s hard to get something big in the SE but it’s hard to also get nothing in 3-4 months
BHS1975
Member
Well this is a little surprising to see.
Well this is certainly more impressive that blocking trying to give us several goes at some cool pushes and dare I say this is getting a bit colder but further out so less likely but we will monitor 00z of course 
Yes … storm sirens going off in Jasper.
Hmmm 18z Gfs seemed to have followed the 12z euro .. we need more model runs though 
Just the start to a blockbuster winter! It’s coming boys, get your firewood!
Yeah i dont know if It has any staying power but certainly a change of pace we needed and just in time for Halloween hopefully so that would be nice .. we need that blocking pattern to stay around to keep upper level low possibilities and help mediate a shotty pacific pattern right now .. but it’s hard stuff to do
Current Temps
Current Radar
Morning temps from the HRRR
Maybe a shower in the morning on the way to work
A few areas of heavier rain with the ongoing storms overnight
Temps tomorrow afternoon from the HRRR
And finally maybe a few showers in ERN NC tomorrow
Current Radar
Morning temps from the HRRR
Maybe a shower in the morning on the way to work
A few areas of heavier rain with the ongoing storms overnight
Temps tomorrow afternoon from the HRRR
And finally maybe a few showers in ERN NC tomorrow
Mr. Golf
Member
I've heard possibilities of a -MT and propagation of mjo that should realign the Pacific, especially for mid November and further out. Even if it happens, its rather difficult to get any sustained cold and snow chances other than the higher elevations. Any merit to that?