Some of the pattern progression that the models are showing are very similar to both the Fall of 1989 and 2010. 1989 was entering a 2nd year LaNina like this year…temperatures were roughly around average to slightly above for most of the Fall but then there was a first real big push of cold air right before Thanksgiving along with a big east coast winter storm on the holiday. Then of course we saw that December stay quite cold with another big winter storm for the western and central Carolinas around the 10th and then of course the big Arctic outbreak and coastal blizzard right around Christmas. After about 3-4 more weeks of average to slightly below average, the SER flexed in late January and the rest of the season was above average minus a just a few quick in and out cold shots.
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Pattern October Thread
- Thread starter SD
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Maybe some storm potential way out there at day 10
JHS
Member
One thing we are missing from the fall of 1989 is of course a major hurricane hitting the southeast coast. I think that shook up the pattern a good bit and then of course that major system in mid November that caused a major tornado in Huntsville AL. That's the one that set the stage for late November and all of December I believe. I may be wrong, but I think that big arctic outbreak before Christmas may be the last time I saw single digit temps here. Jan 2014 came awfully close but did not make it.
I think the system in mid November that year had a bigger overall impact on the pattern than Hugo did… as things stayed fairly close to average for the most part minus a couple CADs until that system in mid November. Speaking of which that system brought some severe with into the Carolinas as well… the home I grew up in actually had two more trees fall from that system… most likely they had been weakened by Hugo a couple months before… and then one more fell during the winter storm around 12/10 due to the weight of ice
tennessee storm
Member
You're welcome now those that know the song will have it in their head the rest of the day
Dewpoint Dan
Member
The wind chills were calculated differently back then weren't they ?
6z GFS was somewhat entertaining for the NC crowd! Especially if you animate it! 
I wonder how many times we are going to see the phrase "step down to colder" over the next 2 weeks with the consecutive rockies/plains systems
There should be 3 maybe 4 but it's going to take until the 3rd or 4th for us to feel any effects and unless they build a -nao it isn't going to be a true step down to colder pattern at last for the SE and probably the EC in general
There should be 3 maybe 4 but it's going to take until the 3rd or 4th for us to feel any effects and unless they build a -nao it isn't going to be a true step down to colder pattern at last for the SE and probably the EC in general
smast16
Member
As long as things don't turn to crap with the upper low in the next couple of days we might be reeling this one in. It's really a good setup for atleast 1-2 days of heavy rain
tennessee storm
Member
Yes. They were
tennessee storm
Member
It’s going take a big powerful system pretty much to change the pattern, and unfortunately that would include a severe wx outbreak …
Everybody loves second severe weather season ?
I noticed the 00z GFS really backed off on the retrogression of that closed off low.
In fact, it even pops a couple 594dm ridges over Texas in the long range.
In fact, it even pops a couple 594dm ridges over Texas in the long range.
cd2play
Member
Otherwise we’ll just have to wait for the pattern to run it’s course. That could take months.
Drought killer 
BTW, models have been busting big time with the rain here so far.
Finally getting our first overcast/cool day today, but it's looking mostly dry.
Finally getting our first overcast/cool day today, but it's looking mostly dry.
weatherfide
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12z GFS is printing out 4" to 5" totals over the Atlanta area now, through 144 hours. My soil is still wet from the last round of September rains. This is like September, the sequel. Sequels are never as good as the originals. this upper level low is holding up the delivery of dryer/cooler continental air and pumping in the Gulf of Mexico!
Now 6.2" over my county through 159 hours... I'm not complaining about the rain, though. This is usually a dry month for me. Just would like some cold air!
Now 6.2" over my county through 159 hours... I'm not complaining about the rain, though. This is usually a dry month for me. Just would like some cold air!