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Pattern October Thread

Gfs is going steal one here or be way wrong for our rain totals. Once it develops that strong coastal trough it just cuts off and rain and no other model really has that
 
SD said:
Gfs is going steal one here or be way wrong for our rain totals. Once it develops that strong coastal trough it just cuts off and rain and no other model really has that
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Regardless we’re looking at a period of lots of cloud cover which means at least below normal highs which would feel nice but the humidity and Southerly flow will lead to above normal low temps .. but who cares I’m sleeping lol
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Regardless we’re looking at a period of lots of cloud cover which means at least below normal highs which would feel nice but the humidity and Southerly flow will lead to above normal low temps .. but who cares I’m sleeping lol
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Gfs has a NEly flow at the sfc but 80s for highs and upper 60s dews, then it has a good amount of divergence aloft but no rain. Does not compute with me I just don't understand
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Is the gfs doing something wonky in the mid levels keeping that area dry? I dont know if That would effect the actual rain output but honestly events like these usually end up on the wetter side than usual .. what about the Gfs ensembles?
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To be honest I can't really figure out why the gfs is dry other than the thing off shore. The gefs are a little drier this run but they are going to follow the OP closely anyway. Like you said this pattern is usually a big rain winner for us. The cmc and UK seem more realistic but probably a little overdone in the case of the cmc
 
SD said:
To be honest I can't really figure out why the gfs is dry other than the thing off shore. The gefs are a little drier this run but they are going to follow the OP closely anyway. Like you said this pattern is usually a big rain winner for us. The cmc and UK seem more realistic but probably a little overdone in the case of the cmc
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The NAM will figure this all out for us! Our king!
 
SD said:
To be honest I can't really figure out why the gfs is dry other than the thing off shore. The gefs are a little drier this run but they are going to follow the OP closely anyway. Like you said this pattern is usually a big rain winner for us. The cmc and UK seem more realistic but probably a little overdone in the case of the cmc
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What does low and mid level moisture transport look like on the GFS?
 
This evolution is similar to may 2020s upper level low, worth noting as the ULL pulled away to our NE, there was a MCS 2 days later as a MCV got caught in the flow, sucks tho because cape is less now
Per climo 492E32CD-E9D4-4D16-B5FF-60E2E099C91E.png1B5D28C7-BEE5-4E9F-9875-3ABBBCF960A1.png31188C16-C1A7-44B2-B22A-31670C619BE9.png
 
I need rain! They actually mentioned drought begets drought in the AFD the other day! It’s been so dry, I’m worried it will continue into winter! It was supposed to be in the 70s today and cloudy and rainy, it’s full sun, no rain in sight, tomorrow is drying up too! This makes 7 days in a row in the 80s, there is a 0.07% chance of that happening in September, per the local news last night! ?
 
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