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Pattern October Thread

SD said:
Looking at the eps spreads the large % of members are 85 or less. We are getting to the point of the year where it's hard to be truly hot I believe RDUs records fall below 90 next week. If anything it's just an incredibly annoying pattern when most of us would rather be in the 70s for highs 50s for lows with dews in the 40s & 50s
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Reminds me of 2002 when true fall air was very slow to come.
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah, because honestly looking at the forecast the next 10-14 days, high temperatures aren’t bad at all… mostly upper 70s to around 80 which is nothing unusual for this time of the year. Where we’re getting above average is our lows which is obviously due to the higher dews
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Right, which sucks. One thing I do look forward to in Oct is much lower DP's, temps in upper 70s meh ok but then dropping back to upper 40s low 50s which isn't going to happen in this pattern. Those daytime highs though as we approach mid Oct will be slightly above normal.
 
16 more days. OCT 20 will be the flip, + or - 24 to 36 hrs. Well survive it. Personally I can use the rains this week and I guess the higher dps at night will help with germination. But im in the corner with others, ready for Fall to kick in high gear. Always think mid Oct to turkey day is by far the best wx in NC all year. Perfect for outdoor activities.
 
SD said:
Gotta think there's more to it here. I wish the raleighwx mjo composite page was still live
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I’ve been trying to find professor Paul roundy from twitter MJO/tropical forcing page but I can’t find it anymore
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
The pattern sort of makes sense but doesn’t, trop forcing isn’t great for warmth but the pattern currently resembles that of a canonical La Niña
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Something is acting to put the pac jet into overdrive. My guess which may be wrong is the BN heights from Siberia into AK and the attempts to force ridging to its south is acting to accelerate the jet and turns a pattern that is relatively decent from a forcing perspective into a bad one. It's kind of what we saw in the 19/20 winter where we kept trying to ridge but couldn't dislodge the AK vortex so we kept a fast flow.
 
EF
Myfrotho704_ said:
The pattern sort of makes sense but doesn’t, trop forcing isn’t great for warmth but the pattern currently resembles that of a canonical La Niña
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maybe that is why we aren’t completely torching with highs staying below/average and lows above average by a good bit.. plus models seem to really try to keep that low pressure system around for quite a while around the SE coast feeding us clouds and showers and basically the same weather for a while
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
EF

maybe that is why we aren’t completely torching with highs staying below/average and lows above average by a good bit.. plus models seem to really try to keep that low pressure system around for quite a while around the SE coast feeding us clouds and showers and basically the same weather for a while
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Okay sike I didn’t see morning data I just woke up!
 
Cfs looks pretty cold as we hit the transition from October to November … will have to wait until then to see any significant cool down or fresh fall front
 
NorthDFWwx said:
Since you're a met student, what is your scientific reasoning behind this comment?

And what does "being this back out in December" mean?
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I thought mjo correlation doesn’t really have much effect until you get into the winter months when you see large scale patterns hold much easier than when wave lengths are shorter and weather changes more frequently… everyone has talked about it every year on here
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I thought mjo correlation doesn’t really have much effect until you get into the winter months when you see large scale patterns hold much easier than when wave lengths are shorter and weather changes more frequently… everyone has talked about it every year on here
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Typically effects cane season more June - October And starts to work on the H5 pattern much more in September/October
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I thought mjo correlation doesn’t really have much effect until you get into the winter months when you see large scale patterns hold much easier than when wave lengths are shorter and weather changes more frequently… everyone has talked about it every year on here
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I've heard that explanation about the teleconnections, but not the MJO. That's definitely a new one.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I thought mjo correlation doesn’t really have much effect until you get into the winter months when you see large scale patterns hold much easier than when wave lengths are shorter and weather changes more frequently… everyone has talked about it every year on here
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MJO only matters when it works out for winter storms. MJO is only one tool in the tool box.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Typically effects cane season more June - October And starts to work on the H5 pattern much more in September/October
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Yeah the mjo is still a driver but it loses some influence at times and can be trumped by other global circulation. I'd really like to see mjo composites when you add in other factors like enso, +/- pdo, +/-amo, +/-aam. Until you drill down to a more granular level the composites are helpful but aren't telling the complete story then you have the chicken/egg issue of is the mjo the cause? If I could find a way to get the mjo data in a spreadsheet I would do it but most of the data I have found is meh
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Typically effects cane season more June - October And starts to work on the H5 pattern much more in September/October
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Okay .. but if we’re suppose to be in a cool phase right now then why aren’t we cool? I’m assuming because it doesn’t have as much correlation right now as it will in 2 months. That’s literally my only point and I’m getting shat on for it lol like damn
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Okay .. but if we’re suppose to be in a cool phase right now then why aren’t we cool? I’m assuming because it doesn’t have as much correlation right now as it will in 2 months. That’s literally my only point and I’m getting shat on for it lol like damn
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I blame La Niña forcing and the PV hanging out on the other side right now
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Okay .. but if we’re suppose to be in a cool phase right now then why aren’t we cool? I’m assuming because it doesn’t have as much correlation right now as it will in 2 months. That’s literally my only point and I’m getting shat on for it lol like damn
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I aint smart but I would think those maps don't work anymore. Prob have to start around 1990 to 2021 to get a better idea. IDK
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Okay .. but if we’re suppose to be in a cool phase right now then why aren’t we cool? I’m assuming because it doesn’t have as much correlation right now as it will in 2 months. That’s literally my only point and I’m getting shat on for it lol like damn
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The mjo isn't an easy button for effects. It's like other teleconnection/analog/composite, it'll give you an idea but it's not perfect. Just like the composites that Fro posted what is the criteria? Is it all mjo phase 5 days in a single composite? If so, do el nino years yield a stronger -500mb height responsein the east so the whole map looks blue but in reality la nina years are neutral to slight ridge? It's much deeper than mjo phase x = result y no questions asked
 
SD said:
The mjo isn't an easy button for effects. It's like other teleconnection/analog/composite, it'll give you an idea but it's not perfect. Just like the composites that Fro posted what is the criteria? Is it all mjo phase 5 days in a single composite? If so, do el nino years yield a stronger -500mb height responsein the east so the whole map looks blue but in reality la nina years are neutral to slight ridge? It's much deeper than mjo phase x = result y no questions asked
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I agree and feel the same way but I know in winter months they are least have stronger correlation I feel like in the past we’ve pulled up the mjo phases in say December January and February and what ever phase we are in (as long as it’s a strong phase signal) it’s usually correlated to the temperature and precip plots whether that be warm or cold even though yes there are other factors still in the winter but the correlation is stronger then right?
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
You must be new here cause MJO correlation is talked about every year
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I meant the comment about the MJO not being as relevant in the warm season because of the short wavelengths. Most of us know the MJO isn't the be all / end all, but that specific explanation why is definitely a new one.

The posts @SD made is more along the line of what I was looking for in terms of an explanation. The answer isn't that it's too early to be using the MJO (as you stated earlier), rather the MJO is still important now but just not the only relevant indicator.
 
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