October Odyssey

[Brent]

nm, you had one last year.. lol

Yup Halloween last year if I remember and then we had an almost winter storm in mid November(hit 22 degrees which I believe may have been our coldest temperature all winter or close to it) before the actual winter was lame

There was a winter since I've been here it wasn't til December

Actually last year was very similar with a major cold snap before Halloween with the current runs for next week there was a couple days with a high below 50

 

[SD]

39 this morning

 

[RBR71]

39 this morning

38.7 hah

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Got down to 38.1

 

[smast16]

36 for me! Frost on cars

 

[jackendrickwx]

My station reported a low of 43F, others around reported 39-40
We suck

 

[Fountainguy97]

My station reported a low of 43F, others around reported 39-40
We suck

Eh we toss. Your low was 32 ✌??

 

[Philstorm91]

12z GFS looking interesting for the 27th for the deep south. Too bad it's out past 180 hours. There does seem to be consistency for an Eastern trough around this date. It would be nice to get a Snowtober down here.

 

[BufordWX]

Euro looking good.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Geez euro would be something

 

[Ollie Williams]

Interesting...

 

[BufordWX]

It was in the 70’s two hours ago. Gotta love those Great Plains cold fronts!

 

[BufordWX]

Happy Halloween!

 

[Tarheel1]

DBQ picked up .4” of snow yesterday! I missed it, was in Wisconsin! ?

 

[Tarheel1]

?

 

[jackendrickwx]

45F this AM

 

[cd2play]

I hope this week is the last extended run of 80+ temps.

 

[BufordWX]

Fall severe weather season may be on its way.

 

[Tarheel1]

Come to papa!

 

[SD]

Looking good for @Tarheel1 @Brent @BufordWX might have to fire up a Midwest thread lol

 

[BufordWX]

Come to papa!View attachment 50665

That band is rocking Des Moines. It even has some thunder snow it looks like.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This look reminds me of last spring, nice hail setup with long straight Hodographs (supports left splits as well) keep this look and a large hail setup may be possible

 

[SimeonNC]

This look reminds me of last spring, nice hail setup with long straight Hodographs (supports left splits as well) keep this look and a large hail setup may be possible View attachment 50671View attachment 50672View attachment 50673View attachment 50674

Hail is the only severe weather type I don't hate so bring it on lol.

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[Myfrotho704_]

My warmer November prediction may be going down the drain

 

[wxdaniel]

My warmer November prediction may be going down the drain

Honestly, I really didn’t want to see that trading toward the west, this early.


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[Webberweather53]

Honestly, I really didn’t want to see that trading toward the west, this early.


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Yep because cold November pattern in this case with Nina forcing means when the wavelengths reach their full maturity (& lengthen) in DJF, we are going to be in the crest of a ridge. This definitely looks like one of those winters where we will probably need to score early and often in December and January, as most signs point towards a raging +AO/NAO/-PNA in late winter and spring.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yep because cold November pattern in this case with Nina forcing means when the wavelengths reach their full maturity (& lengthen) in DJF, we are going to be in the crest of a ridge. This definitely looks like one of those winters where we will probably need to score early and often in December and January, as most signs point towards a raging +AO/NAO/-PNA in late winter and spring.

That’s Probably gonna be the build up to a big severe weather pattern when we move towards spring

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Nice signal for the MJO to go into PH7-8 into November, even a signal on the analogs, time for “only if Was a month later” setups

 

[tennessee storm]

Nice signal for the MJO to go into PH7-8 into November, even a signal on the analogs, time for “only if Was a month later” setups View attachment 50677

Yep to bad we’re not going into late December with that look... probably going be a wet n cooler November

 

[avlsnow]

So are phases 7 through 2 what bring cooler weather to the SE?

 

[Tarheel1]

Currently 37 and...

 

[whatalife]

So are phases 7 through 2 what bring cooler weather to the SE?

Here’s the answer to your question...

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[Webberweather53]

Yep to bad we’re not going into late December with that look... probably going be a wet n cooler November

Climo is just warm enough to give us cold rain in a good Nov pattern

 

[Chazwin]

Yep because cold November pattern in this case with Nina forcing means when the wavelengths reach their full maturity (& lengthen) in DJF, we are going to be in the crest of a ridge. This definitely looks like one of those winters where we will probably need to score early and often in December and January, as most signs point towards a raging +AO/NAO/-PNA in late winter and spring.

It always seems like with 1st years or single year LaNinas that the window for southern winter storms is early... late November to mid January.... 2000-01 and 2010-11 come to mind. Do you think this LaNina is a multi-year event, because if it is that’s bad news for next year... for example 2011-12 was the 2nd year of a LaNina and we all remember how horrible that was

 

[weatherfide]

Currently 37 and...View attachment 50679View attachment 50680View attachment 50679View attachment 50680

It looks like you need to get into darkness before that's going to stick.

 

[wxdaniel]

Yep because cold November pattern in this case with Nina forcing means when the wavelengths reach their full maturity (& lengthen) in DJF, we are going to be in the crest of a ridge. This definitely looks like one of those winters where we will probably need to score early and often in December and January, as most signs point towards a raging +AO/NAO/-PNA in late winter and spring.

There is an anomaly however, which may cause a temporary displacement for this wavelength. TS EPSILON. I read a blog from Cosgrove and he seems to agree.

 

[SD]

There is an anomaly however, which may cause a temporary displacement for this wavelength. TS EPSILON. I read a blog from Cosgrove and he seems to agree.

Id watch the west PAC too here's as we may get a couple of typhoons in the coming weeks. Probably just going to lead toward a nice western trough and SE ridge

 

[wxdaniel]

Currently 37 and...View attachment 50679View attachment 50680View attachment 50679View attachment 50680

I remember the day where Mack and myself were one of the last ones to see snow on the board. (Climatology speaking)


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[LickWx]

Currently 37 and...View attachment 50679View attachment 50680View attachment 50679View attachment 50680

Only 7 more months of this ! Sometimes 8! . Crazy how you can snow in October and we can barely snow in winter lol.

 

[Webberweather53]

It always seems like with 1st years or single year LaNinas that the window for southern winter storms is early... late November to mid January.... 2000-01 and 2010-11 come to mind. Do you think this LaNina is a multi-year event, because if it is that’s bad news for next year... for example 2011-12 was the 2nd year of a LaNina and we all remember how horrible that was

Usually ~50% of La Nina events last more than one consecutive boreal winter. As for snow, it's slightly higher on average in first year La Ninas, but this certainly isn't always true or are the difference(s) between 2nd and first year La Ninas statistically significant