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Pattern Novemburrr

NickyBGuarantee said:
Here’s your SER thankfully it’s far in fantasy land but that’s about as classic as it gets View attachment 94018
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If that had gone out further, I think you would have seen that this is a fairly progressive SER… of course like you said this is out in fantasy land and will change 100 times
 
Chazwin said:
If that had gone out further, I think you would have seen that this is a fairly progressive SER… of course like you said this is out in fantasy land and will change 100 times
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Yes I know I figure I gotta be a little impartial to future possibilities.. wave lengths still not at their best so variability is going to be high in this upcoming pattern
 
The Euro dropped a bomb imby on the Cumberland Plateau in East Tennessee. Southeast Kentucky too. Early November snowfalls aren't unheard of here but this would be an epic if it were to come to pass.
sn10_acc.us_ov.png
 
This looks to be the first chase event. 6”+ easily on the GFS for VA/WV, I may drive up to blowing rock for scattered snow showers should be an easy drive too warm for accums more than a coating.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Man I really hope we can get something similar to this in January.
View attachment 94025
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Honestly a 1032 High in that position and low pressure taking that track probably works in mid December…. It just seems like it’s been so long since that set up actually happened
 
Chazwin said:
Honestly a 1032 High in that position and low pressure taking that track probably works in mid December…. It just seems like it’s been so long since that set up actually happened
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Yeah very impressive. We will probably never see that from December-March. Probably will in April though
 
This will feel really nice. I think the GEFS is probably too warm by comparison, it's progressing the pattern a little too much east of the Rockies and usually has a weak/SE bias w/ cyclones near the east coast like the one late this week. The more wound up cyclone and trough axis on the ECMWF & EPS transports more cold from the plains into the SE US. The Canadian ensemble (while definitely cold biased) is also showing the more wound up solution like the ECMWF/EPS & makes that colder camp more believable than the GEFS/GFS. I think the EPS is the closest to reality of the major guidance atm & is in between the two cold & warm extremes presented on the GEPS & GEFS respectively.


ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t2m_f_anom-6221600.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
This will feel really nice. I think the GEFS is probably too warm by comparison, it's progressing the pattern a little too much east of the Rockies and usually has a weak/SE bias w/ cyclones near the east coast like the one late this week. The more wound up cyclone and trough axis on the ECMWF & EPS transports more cold from the plains into the SE US. The Canadian ensemble (while definitely cold biased) is also showing the more wound up solution like the ECMWF/EPS & makes that colder camp more believable than the GEFS/GFS. I think the EPS is the closest to reality of the major guidance atm & is in between the two cold & warm extremes presented on the GEPS & GEFS respectively.


View attachment 94035
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Worried about what comes after this.. definitely looks like somewhat of a ridge progression for the East but maybe not sustained probably will be nice after being this chilly
 
Webberweather53 said:
This will feel really nice. I think the GEFS is probably too warm by comparison, it's progressing the pattern a little too much east of the Rockies and usually has a weak/SE bias w/ cyclones near the east coast like the one late this week. The more wound up cyclone and trough axis on the ECMWF & EPS transports more cold from the plains into the SE US. The Canadian ensemble (while definitely cold biased) is also showing the more wound up solution like the ECMWF/EPS & makes that colder camp more believable than the GEFS/GFS. I think the EPS is the closest to reality of the major guidance atm & is in between the two cold & warm extremes presented on the GEPS & GEFS respectively.


View attachment 94035
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Man I haven’t seen any blue over Canada this year at all. Bodes great for winter ! All the colds over the south where we need to build the snowpack for a good winter ! It’s our source region!
 
Lickwx said:
Man I haven’t seen any blue over Canada this year at all. Bodes great for winter ! All the colds over the south where we need to build the snowpack for a good winter ! It’s our source region!
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Yeah the reason there isn’t any cold there is because the GOA trough is pumping mild pacific air into the entire continent (minus Alaska), and what cold air is left after that is all getting evacuated out of Canada.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah the reason there isn’t any cold there is because the GOA trough is pumping mild pacific air into the entire continent (minus Alaska), and what cold air is left after that is all getting evacuated out of Canada.
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Looks like the mild pacific firehose is gonna come back, continues getting closer and closer 7817DBB5-877C-41DF-92ED-81CC38AD4C24.pngA4186715-90CC-462C-A981-4DDA2A5F2D9B.png
 
The last couple weeks has basically been presenting Classic last nina type things, the pattern has been mostly warm this October and quite AN, with a dominating pacific trough which has mostly been keeping a pacific firehose over NA, but little changes in the pacific with retrogression is gonna result in this, when the cold happens in la ninas it’s typically more potent 12814FAF-E418-4FCF-A398-53FBA033BD02.pngbut we’re already getting this look back again, it’s a La Niña actually acting like a La Niña for once CB56EA9B-5FED-4F43-B00A-D26CD5F5211C.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The last couple weeks has basically been presenting Classic last nina type things, the pattern has been mostly warm this October and quite AN, with a dominating pacific trough which has mostly been keeping a pacific firehose over NA, but little changes in the pacific is gonna result in thisView attachment 94041but we’re already getting this look back again, it’s a La Niña actually acting like a La Niña for once View attachment 94042
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I hope that's not going to last all winter. :(
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The last couple weeks has basically been presenting Classic last nina type things, the pattern has been mostly warm this October and quite AN, with a dominating pacific trough which has mostly been keeping a pacific firehose over NA, but little changes in the pacific with retrogression is gonna result in this, when the cold happens in la ninas it’s typically more potent View attachment 94041but we’re already getting this look back again, it’s a La Niña actually acting like a La Niña for once View attachment 94042
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This is why I have believed since July that we’re gonna see a highly variable winter (especially the first half) with mild stretches and cold stretches.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looks like the mild pacific firehose is gonna come back, continues getting closer and closer View attachment 94039View attachment 94040
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In the dead of winter w/ larger wavelengths and an equatorward displaced jet, that's a good pattern for me to score. To get a big snow in Arizona & New Mexico, you look for a ridge that noses into the Gulf of Alaska and upper trough that slides down the west coast, cutting off in the process and digging into far northern Mexico ahead of a ridge over eastern Canada and the Lakes.
 
I’m really liking the -WPO models are showing tho eventually. which is the difference in the repeating patterns we’ve been seeing, that -WPO is gonna a unload some big cold toward our side/Canada if it’s persistent, only thing you risk with a -WPO tho is getting a southeast ridge
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I’m really liking the -WPO models are showing tho eventually. which is the difference in the repeating patterns we’ve been seeing, that -WPO is gonna a unload some big cold toward our side/Canada if it’s persistent, only thing you risk with a -WPO tho is getting a southeast ridge
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2007, 2010, 2011, 2017 all attempted or did get the ridge into AK in November with varying results across the conus into the SE.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I smell a CAD coming on. We get a little more stream separation w/ the trough axis on the East coast, that's all she wrote.
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Screams onset sleet this week after several mornings of dry chilly weather. CAD will show last minute with 30s and mixed bag to rain due to low level dry air getting stuck east of the mtns. MTN snows could develop with stronger storm systems in this pattern.
 
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