Pattern Novemburrr

[Webberweather53]

To pour even more salt on the wounds, here's the last 4 days of 12z EPS runs.

Lol

 

[Ollie Williams]

The Euro control says snow the first week of November.

 

[Webberweather53]

It is interesting how the models keep trending slowly to the west with each run but then also intensify the cold once it finally comes. This delay from run to run is quite possibly due to the convective forcing from near record very warm W Pacific/Maritime Continent anomalies and the inherent biases of models being slowly corrected with each run from a pro met I’ve talked to. It does remind me of Feb of 2021.

The tropical W Pacific is definitely on fire right now. We all know what that means!

An all you can eat buffet of SE ridge!

 

[Tarheel1]

Don't worry, delayed but not denied! Only 11 days out!

View attachment 93808

But the source region is soooo torchy! ?

 

[Mr. Golf]

Looks good for me ??

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

To pour even more salt on the wounds, here's the last 4 days of 12z EPS runs.

Lol

View attachment 93816

This would hurt if we were actually going above normal and miss the cold completely .. instead we stay average with cool nights before the cold eventually makes it here ??‍ If anything it’s more of a trend for the whole US to get in on the action

 

[Webberweather53]

This would hurt if we were actually going above normal and miss the cold completely .. instead we stay average with cool nights before the cold eventually makes it here ??‍ If anything it’s more of a trend for the whole US to get in on the action

I mean, I wouldn't rule that out just yet.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I mean, I wouldn't rule that out just yet.

You’re right I’ll give it a 2% chance that cold air won’t hit us at all. At the end of the day this pattern is transient so any “warm up” or “cool down” won’t last too long and instead they’ll go back and forth as they have been but I don’t see many scenarios that big ole lump of cold misses us completely. Probably first freeze potential with it

 

[Myfrotho704_]

You’re right I’ll give it a 2% chance that cold air won’t hit us at all. At the end of the day this pattern is transient so any “warm up” or “cool down” won’t last too long and instead they’ll go back and forth as they have been but I don’t see many scenarios that big ole lump of cold misses us completely. Probably first freeze potential with it

I remember we was saying the same thing back in February ? it didn’t even get below freezing here with that when there was precip

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I remember we was saying the same thing back in February ? it didn’t even get below freezing here with that when there was precip

The true definition of fire and ice … the only time all winter the SER wanted to flex like that .. maybe the cold shot was so amplified it really sparked the SER .. i dont know us Cold lovers shake at night thinking about that cruel week

 

[Myfrotho704_]

You can see the GFS slowly shifting things to the plains

 

[Myfrotho704_]

If that energy entering the plains doesn’t get crushed, we might see our first modeled snow outside the mountains

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Why.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Fail. Way to flat

 

[Brent]

?

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Fail. Way to flat View attachment 93843View attachment 93844View attachment 93845

Suppression is great at this range. ?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

You can see the GFS slowly shifting things to the plains View attachment 93835View attachment 93836

Core moves a bit away but still coming towards us and we are staying below normal here .. no strong SER yet.. but I’ll be happier if it’s at 150 or under

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Fail. Way to flat View attachment 93843View attachment 93844View attachment 93845

Hey this is alright maybe enough for some ensembles to get going ??‍ At the end of the day it’s early November snow ain't suppose to happen just yet ..

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Is this a sick joke? I get a nice warm day while FRO gets cold rain CAD! No fair!