LickWx
Member
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Novemburrr
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The SE US invents new ways to lose out on cold/snow. Now there's too much SE trend!
I was Very quiet lol, shi I was seeing snow potential at one point lol like a weenie, if we’re gonna cold rain on Thursday, at least hope I see a sleet pellet and I’ll stop bitching
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'm so glad I don't have to deal w/ cold rain anymore. This week's setup gives me Vietnam flashbacks to all the 33 & rains I saw last winter in NC
I’m so glad I get to work in it on Thursday !
Hugging the euro a cool drier day is 1000x better
RAH has adjusted thursday temps down. Now w/ 51 here.
So close to onset IP/RN 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Decent advisory snow in WNC on 18Z NAM
These spreads are crazy, getting above 30F 
Wow we have a NAM’ing
I’m All in
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Same. I mean why wouldn’t we be for the first of November? All house money at this point anyway.
NWS snow map is out…4-5” for mount Mitchell…1-2” beech…2-3” roan…3-4” mount guyot.
18z NAM was a little faster with the front would be kind of awesome to get a mid afternoon passage
DFW made to 80*F again today, with mostly sunny skies.
New Bleakies are slightly cooler for November at ATL vs the prior run with -1.5 vs -1.0 on the prior run. The run from one week ago had -2.5, the coldest of all the runs for Nov. The first half of Dec is only 1 F AN vs the cooler 1981-2010 30 year average. I'd take that! That's near to slightly BN vs 1991-2020.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Novemburrrrrrrr
Some sleet might actually be a legitimate possibility with this, evap cooling never fails in the cold season to produce onset IP/RN with large low level dry layers and wet bulb temps aloft below 0C, only problem is 940mb-sfc is above freezing 
Euro nailed October 
Cant get more beautiful than this! 
tennessee storm
Member
Always some hope way out in fantasy land guess , lol
Looks like the GEFS is coming to reality 
Downeastnc
Member
Just a wee little bit of a west shift on the 06Z ICON
Playing with fire wrt severe wx with this look 
NCSNOW
Member
Pretty good agreement of a Trash Can lid Topper for the Northern mtns & above3500 feet central southern apps off the latest runs. Novelity stuff, but 1st week of Nov, who's complaining.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Welp. That was fun while it lasted. No more novemburrrr on the gfs 
NCSNOW
Member
CFS did a good job a few weeks back showing the transition to normal, last 10 days of Oct into Nov.
I was just browsing seeing what it was coughing up for late Nov. Saw some board wide pics, to good to pass up. Only about 28 days till verefication lol. When I'm teeing off in 55 degree air Nov 30th, I'll come back and revisit this post and remind myself the CFS lucked up with this current, new found success. Close your eyes Myfrotho704
Enjoy. Think thats the 1st digital snow for everyone. I average about 300 inches per year.
I was just browsing seeing what it was coughing up for late Nov. Saw some board wide pics, to good to pass up. Only about 28 days till verefication lol. When I'm teeing off in 55 degree air Nov 30th, I'll come back and revisit this post and remind myself the CFS lucked up with this current, new found success. Close your eyes Myfrotho704
Enjoy. Think thats the 1st digital snow for everyone. I average about 300 inches per year.
I do like the building pac ridge, hopefully transient cool shots also mean transient warm shots
Agreed. Not really seeing anything hanging around too long right now. We're transitioning to longer wavelengths, which will make things interesting.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
As weenie as these runs are, I always like looking at them (not just for the solutions they produce), but it shows us how we can win/score. A study on CFSv2 (or any other model) and the patterns in the model that produce big winter storms would be revealing, arguably perhaps even more so than a historical study, because we get so many runs every winter and it doesn't take us that many years to obtain enough runs to possess a sufficient sample of events in the model world to analyze, which also means the climate is fairly static over that time.
Notice in the days leading up to that event, there's a huge blocking high over the Bering Sea and eastern Siberia. This seeds the N American continent and preceding west-central US with Siberian air (the coldest air in the entire N hemisphere), which then gets tapped into by a wave interacting w/ the southern branch of the jet whose progression is accentuated by the subsequent trough over Alaska.
smast16
Member
I'm not really sure what this is saying, but i like the big ridge over the west coast.
I was thinking the same exact thing.
LickWx
Member
After Saturday keeps trending warmer in the forecast . Nice .
smast16
Member
It was the 18Z GFS at 300+ hours. what did you expect? This is also 384 hours out, this is wrong too
All those highs in the 50s are almost gone.
Snow opportunity for the NE and Northern mid Atlantic mid to late November. Only really good thing for us is the potential building blocks for a -nao.
You can see how the gfs is bouncing around post d10 and the 30 degree spreads in the eps. Get the trough/ ridge position right and you have something if you live to our north for us it's the difference in cold/SER
smast16
Member
If we get into a super wavy but progressive pattern we might scorch away snow pack across the conus anyway.
Looks like a decent amount of snow in Canada though on the gfs/cmc so that'll be helpful down the road