Here’s your SER thankfully it’s far in fantasy land but that’s about as classic as it gets 
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Pattern Novemburrr
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
If that had gone out further, I think you would have seen that this is a fairly progressive SER… of course like you said this is out in fantasy land and will change 100 times
Yes I know I figure I gotta be a little impartial to future possibilities.. wave lengths still not at their best so variability is going to be high in this upcoming pattern
We worried about cold air in November.. lol. ???
John1122
Member
The Euro dropped a bomb imby on the Cumberland Plateau in East Tennessee. Southeast Kentucky too. Early November snowfalls aren't unheard of here but this would be an epic if it were to come to pass.
This looks to be the first chase event. 6”+ easily on the GFS for VA/WV, I may drive up to blowing rock for scattered snow showers should be an easy drive too warm for accums more than a coating.
This will be a fun cold front to track.. business in the front and party in the back 
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Man I really hope we can get something similar to this in January.
You can! Cold rain doesn’t discriminate! November, January, you’ll have all you can handle!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I smell a CAD coming on. We get a little more stream separation w/ the trough axis on the East coast, that's all she wrote.
Honestly a 1032 High in that position and low pressure taking that track probably works in mid December…. It just seems like it’s been so long since that set up actually happened
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Yeah very impressive. We will probably never see that from December-March. Probably will in April though
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 12z EPS is settling into what will be the first of many cold rain CADs for NC, SC, & VA this winter.
Get that snowpack going in Tahoe!!!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This will feel really nice. I think the GEFS is probably too warm by comparison, it's progressing the pattern a little too much east of the Rockies and usually has a weak/SE bias w/ cyclones near the east coast like the one late this week. The more wound up cyclone and trough axis on the ECMWF & EPS transports more cold from the plains into the SE US. The Canadian ensemble (while definitely cold biased) is also showing the more wound up solution like the ECMWF/EPS & makes that colder camp more believable than the GEFS/GFS. I think the EPS is the closest to reality of the major guidance atm & is in between the two cold & warm extremes presented on the GEPS & GEFS respectively.
Worried about what comes after this.. definitely looks like somewhat of a ridge progression for the East but maybe not sustained probably will be nice after being this chilly
LickWx
Member
Man I haven’t seen any blue over Canada this year at all. Bodes great for winter ! All the colds over the south where we need to build the snowpack for a good winter ! It’s our source region!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah the reason there isn’t any cold there is because the GOA trough is pumping mild pacific air into the entire continent (minus Alaska), and what cold air is left after that is all getting evacuated out of Canada.
Looks like the mild pacific firehose is gonna come back, continues getting closer and closer
The last couple weeks has basically been presenting Classic last nina type things, the pattern has been mostly warm this October and quite AN, with a dominating pacific trough which has mostly been keeping a pacific firehose over NA, but little changes in the pacific with retrogression is gonna result in this, when the cold happens in la ninas it’s typically more potent 
but we’re already getting this look back again, it’s a La Niña actually acting like a La Niña for once 
but we’re already getting this look back again, it’s a La Niña actually acting like a La Niña for once