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Pattern Novemburrr

NickyBGuarantee said:
Our Dewpoint’s at least stay under 60 from here on out for the most part and once that cold shot moves through we will dip into the 20s Dewpoint wise .. glad we finally got rid of humidity around here
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I only like humidity when Im surrounded by palm trees, golden tans, and a packed cooler!!!
 
I was just looking at something that showed the 11-15 day forecast from the GEFS/EPS as of five days ago (10/23) for 11/2-6 and it had mainly near normal in the E 2/3 of the US. Now that same period of 11/2-6 has moved into the 6-10 day period and it is much colder. So, the models didn’t do a good job of seeing this cold that far in advance. The cold has also slipped back in time somewhat.
 
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GaWx said:
I was just looking at something that showed the 11-15 day forecast from the GEFS/EPS as of five days ago (10/23) for 11/2-6 and it had mainly near normal in the E 2/3 of the US. Now that same period of 11/2-6 has moved into the 6-10 day period and it is much colder. So, the models didn’t do a good job of seeing this cold that far in advance. The cold has also slipped back in time somewhat.
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Interesting I would’ve never thought with the amount of warm talk that’s spoken about in here ?
 
00z ICON with an impressive cold push! Earlier than expected. Tuesday evening front moves through and Wednesday and Thursday stay in the low 50s for high (some will stay in the 40s closer to the mountains) and ICON also wants to bring our first freeze Wednesday night but if not then Thursday night has an even better chance. Average first freeze is the 5th so looks like we will hit this mark with ease if the ICON is correct.
 
Interestingly, after perhaps a small moderation to not as cold, the 0Z GEFS now brings in a 2nd Canadian high 11/8-10 into the E US. Is this the start of a new trend toward a delay in the end of the chill? It sure wouldn't be the first time. For example, note that post I just did about how much colder 11/2-6 is now looking vs how it looked as of just 5 days ago.
 
5 day mean days 5-10.
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Some hints of cold air damming in the pattern around Nov 8-12, really depends on how much stream separation we see east of the Rockies.

If CAD were to materialize, it could be of concern for the mountains or far western Piedmont of NC into VA if enough cold air enters the picture. Simply too early in the calendar year for ice much elsewhere.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Verbatim That’s probably wet snow for parts of the Piedmont of NC given the flatness of the wave not introducing much WAA, BL temps being the only issue View attachment 93953View attachment 93954View attachment 93955
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Time of day would also have to be in our favor but hey this time frame has peaked other models interest.. snow? Probably not but a cold rain sure .. hope trends could continue in this direction but I’m not getting my hopes up especially this early .. I’ll do that in January when it really hurts
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
If you bring that trough in Canada down a little more with deeper/colder airmass that’s a early season snow, that southern stream wave placement in Texas is great View attachment 93959
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I’ve noticed this that on models if that vortex in Canada can dip that little finger southwest it would definitely have to be a perfect scenario for an early season snow… hmmmm don’t reel me in like this FRO
 
It’s not gonna work on the GFS, there’s some northern stream Energy on the Icon around the NE which effectively removes any sort of retreat of the cold air source, and effectively “presses” down on the system (note the NS energy around Maine DA76D2A4-0559-477B-9120-6376AED32140.png
Meanwhile the GFs is flatter/faster and doesn’t have much of a press and weak N/S energy near the lakes, and tries to build heights off the SE coast allowing
Minimal retreat of the marginal cold air source, likely mostly meaning cold rain 62E40ABD-B8D0-4698-A674-E6D41084431D.pngit’s awesome to track something this early..
 
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