Pattern Novemburrr

[SD]

There are quite a few ways to get really warm or really cold in the 7-21 day. Watch how the western ridge/goa trough/Aleutian ridge evolve. We are likely to see the western ridge retrograde over top of the GOA trough and link with the ridge in the Aleutian. That may open the door for the vortex in East Canada/Greenland to move poleward or west itself opening the door for a round of -nao. But there will be another round of western trough in there

Before that depending on high tightly wound the vortex over the lakes and SE Canada is and what undercuts the ridge makes a big difference between low amp SE ridge, cold air, wedge in the 40s, outside snow flake chance, piedmont cutter

 

[SD]

The west canada ridge on the gfs is problematic for a strong cold push already at least initially. Don't want to string out the vortcity like that along the US Canada border. Might get a phase though in the lee of the rockies

 

[SD]

Going to get a SER on the gfs then a cold shot behind it. Might get a wedge as a piece of the bigger high in the west breaks off.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

We live in such a great region for cold. good thing this isn’t winter or there would be a total meltdown

 

[SD]

Not much difference between what gives us cold
And what doesn't

Meh on to the next run

 

[SD]

Interesting mjo forecasts as well p4/5 aren't terrible in November

 

[Brent]

Oh so close to a flizzard watch ?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

We live in such a great region for cold. good thing this isn’t winter or there would be a total meltdown View attachment 93685View attachment 93686View attachment 93687

While this gets us at worst case this during the day (with nighttime lows In the upper 40s)
Its not that bad when you have a big area of cold that has to move out at eventually
And subsequently does

but at the end of the day there are a lottttt of moving parts here and all the possibilities are certainly on the table especially with wave lengths still short they can cause lots of variability even with ridges and blocking

 

[Webberweather53]

I’m gonna need some new pants after that GFS run.
Even snows here at day 9. Apparently, it’s snowed in my part of New Mexico 3x during in October just since 1980, including last year where we got several inches on the 28th.

??????

 

[GaWx]

12Z GEFS setting up to be similar to the 6Z GEFS, which was colder than the 0ZZ/18Z in the E US later in the run./longer before warming.

 

[tennessee storm]

I’m gonna need some new pants after that GFS run.
Even snows here at day 9. Apparently, it’s snowed in my part of New Mexico 3x during in October just since 1980, including last year where we got several inches on the 28th.

??????

View attachment 93697

just maybe the trough with the colder weather will sit up out west for u this winter webber...

 

[Brent]

It's like February all over again ?

 

[Snowman63]

It's like February all over again ?View attachment 93698

The new norm?

 

[cd2play]

The new norm?

What’s so new about it? It’s too hard, powdered.

 

[smast16]

We live in such a great region for cold. good thing this isn’t winter or there would be a total meltdown View attachment 93685View attachment 93686View attachment 93687

Hit it @NoSnowATL

 

[Metwannabe]

I’m gonna need some new pants after that GFS run.
Even snows here at day 9. Apparently, it’s snowed in my part of New Mexico 3x during in October just since 1980, including last year where we got several inches on the 28th.

??????

View attachment 93697

Don't make me pull out the "this is Southernwx forum not desert SWwx forum" card modernweenie

 

[NoSnowATL]

Hit it @NoSnowATL

 

[Webberweather53]

Don't make me pull out the "this is Southernwx forum not desert SWwx forum" card modernweenie

We’re all southern wx! I’m just south(western) ?. Good thing is if it snows around here I’ll be sure to send pics and video to make everyone jealous

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

We’re all southern wx! I’m just south(western) ?. Good thing is if it snows around here I’ll be sure to send pics and video to make everyone jealous

Dubuque isn't southern!

 

[Metwannabe]

Dubuque isn't southern!

Neither is Carmel, IN.... not by a long shot.