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Pattern Novemburrr

Brent said:
Of course I went through 5 horrible snowless winters in Dallas before the miracle of February ? (and last year despite the fact it snowed in Abilene and Waco before that had a rough start)
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The question on my mind is how many winters do I have to go through to pay off 12/8/17.
 
Arcc said:
The question on my mind is how many winters do I have to go through to pay off 12/8/17.
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Yeah see before I moved to Dallas they had the 2010 foot the 2011 super bowl storm the 2013 ice storm

The first winter I was there we had 4 inches at the end of February March but yeah(which was coming off my last winter in Alabama when January 2014 happened) so initially it didn't bother me because 15/16 sucked everywhere

But then 2017 2018 we watched it snow to the south and east

Believe me it wasn't fun
 
Starting to see another sign of the pacific jet buckling again, getting under hour 200, if this is the case watch for a brief Return to warm conditions/severe wx in early-mid November, this change in the pac jet will try to bring that Aleutian trough to the west coast and make it our future problem 53F65A26-9D00-4581-8A7D-3C393A751080.png1CDA9D8E-E567-4154-B1BD-D884AB73DDCF.png
 
EPS supports the GFS on getting cold in here much faster. Warmest days are just a couple of days in the mid 60's before the real cold dives south. Even on the warmest days the EPS is till a good 5-7 degrees cooler than the Euro in most places in the southeast.
 
iGRXY said:
EPS supports the GFS on getting cold in here much faster. Warmest days are just a couple of days in the mid 60's before the real cold dives south. Even on the warmest days the EPS is till a good 5-7 degrees cooler than the Euro in most places in the southeast.
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The trend has not been your friend on any of the major ensemble suites. Both the gefs and eps have been delaying the cold shot over the last few days. Odds are it still gets here but I’m not buying how fast it is on the GFS. We’ll see what the next few runs show
 
Webberweather53 said:
The trend has not been your friend on any of the major ensemble suites. Both the gefs and eps have been delaying the cold shot over the last few days. Odds are it still gets here but I’m not buying how fast it is on the GFS. We’ll see what the next few runs show
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Yeo that EPS trend the last 2 days is obvious, I remember when models had just a EC cold shot now it’s back in the central US first
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeo that EPS trend the last 2 days is obvious, I remember when models had just a EC cold shot now it’s back in the central US first
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Its almost exactly the vibe of that big cold shot in February and the SER decided to flare its muscles at the exact same time … except this time around that ridge looks fairly deflated if it were to show up and very progressive .. I think it’s safe to say this cold shot WILL make it through at some point I don’t expect to see much more delaying than what’s been shown already
 
Webberweather53 said:
The trend has not been your friend on any of the major ensemble suites. Both the gefs and eps have been delaying the cold shot over the last few days. Odds are it still gets here but I’m not buying how fast it is on the GFS. We’ll see what the next few runs show
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Expect to see that trend most winter be honest. Models are having hard time with the strength of the La Niña. Seems be underestimating it….
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Its almost exactly the vibe of that big cold shot in February and the SER decided to flare its muscles at the exact same time … except this time around that ridge looks fairly deflated if it were to show up and very progressive .. I think it’s safe to say this cold shot WILL make it through at some point I don’t expect to see much more delaying than what’s been shown already
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Yeah the biggest difference between now and February is the MJO. Back in February, it moved into an unfavorable phase that promoted a strong SER, now it’s going into a favorable phase for early November which should keep any ridging fairly progressive
 
GFS slowed by a day. Pumped the ridge out ahead. Temps in the upper 60's and lower 70's before the front clears.
 
iGRXY said:
GFS slowed by a day. Pumped the ridge out ahead. Temps in the upper 60's and lower 70's before the front clears.
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I already see where this is going. What we are seeing right now with the models delaying the cold is giving me February flashbacks. The cold front keeps getting delayed until ether doesn't pass the mountains at all or so weak that we are looking only slightly below average temperatures for 1-2 days before warming up again after the front passes instead of actual cold. Not at all good for people east of the Appalachians if you want arctic cold.
 
Faco Thomas said:
I already see where this is going. What we are seeing right now with the models delaying the cold is giving me February flashbacks. The cold front keeps getting delayed until ether doesn't pass the mountains at all or so weak that we are looking only slightly below average temperatures for 1-2 days before warming up again after the front passes instead of actual cold. Not at all good for people east of the Appalachians if you want arctic cold.
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Stop being so negative !
 
Much more cold air to work with this run but it’s still showing up in medium range if the cold was denied past 240 at any point now that would be an actual model delay of cold air where I would start being worried about it being a mirage but this is not that BF41855E-9E53-4DEE-B290-9EC44E1EB85F.jpeg47F82F52-4D84-4363-AC30-ADE49FA3AB1D.jpeg
 
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