Pattern Novemburrr

[SD]

There are quite a few ways to get really warm or really cold in the 7-21 day. Watch how the western ridge/goa trough/Aleutian ridge evolve. We are likely to see the western ridge retrograde over top of the GOA trough and link with the ridge in the Aleutian. That may open the door for the vortex in East Canada/Greenland to move poleward or west itself opening the door for a round of -nao. But there will be another round of western trough in there

Before that depending on high tightly wound the vortex over the lakes and SE Canada is and what undercuts the ridge makes a big difference between low amp SE ridge, cold air, wedge in the 40s, outside snow flake chance, piedmont cutter

 

[SD]

The west canada ridge on the gfs is problematic for a strong cold push already at least initially. Don't want to string out the vortcity like that along the US Canada border. Might get a phase though in the lee of the rockies

 

[SD]

Going to get a SER on the gfs then a cold shot behind it. Might get a wedge as a piece of the bigger high in the west breaks off.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

We live in such a great region for cold. good thing this isn’t winter or there would be a total meltdown

 

[SD]

Not much difference between what gives us cold
And what doesn't

Meh on to the next run

 

[SD]

Interesting mjo forecasts as well p4/5 aren't terrible in November

 

[Brent]

Oh so close to a flizzard watch ?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

We live in such a great region for cold. good thing this isn’t winter or there would be a total meltdown View attachment 93685View attachment 93686View attachment 93687

While this gets us at worst case this during the day (with nighttime lows In the upper 40s)
Its not that bad when you have a big area of cold that has to move out at eventually
And subsequently does

but at the end of the day there are a lottttt of moving parts here and all the possibilities are certainly on the table especially with wave lengths still short they can cause lots of variability even with ridges and blocking

 

[Webberweather53]

I’m gonna need some new pants after that GFS run.
Even snows here at day 9. Apparently, it’s snowed in my part of New Mexico 3x during in October just since 1980, including last year where we got several inches on the 28th.

??????

 

[GaWx]

12Z GEFS setting up to be similar to the 6Z GEFS, which was colder than the 0ZZ/18Z in the E US later in the run./longer before warming.

 

[tennessee storm]

I’m gonna need some new pants after that GFS run.
Even snows here at day 9. Apparently, it’s snowed in my part of New Mexico 3x during in October just since 1980, including last year where we got several inches on the 28th.

??????

View attachment 93697

just maybe the trough with the colder weather will sit up out west for u this winter webber...

 

[Brent]

It's like February all over again ?

 

[Snowman63]

It's like February all over again ?View attachment 93698

The new norm?

 

[cd2play]

The new norm?

What’s so new about it? It’s too hard, powdered.

 

[smast16]

We live in such a great region for cold. good thing this isn’t winter or there would be a total meltdown View attachment 93685View attachment 93686View attachment 93687

Hit it @NoSnowATL

 

[RBR71]

I’m gonna need some new pants after that GFS run.
Even snows here at day 9. Apparently, it’s snowed in my part of New Mexico 3x during in October just since 1980, including last year where we got several inches on the 28th.

??????

View attachment 93697

Don't make me pull out the "this is Southernwx forum not desert SWwx forum" card modernweenie

 

[NoSnowATL]

Hit it @NoSnowATL

 

[Webberweather53]

Don't make me pull out the "this is Southernwx forum not desert SWwx forum" card modernweenie

We’re all southern wx! I’m just south(western) ?. Good thing is if it snows around here I’ll be sure to send pics and video to make everyone jealous

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

We’re all southern wx! I’m just south(western) ?. Good thing is if it snows around here I’ll be sure to send pics and video to make everyone jealous

Dubuque isn't southern!

 

[RBR71]

Dubuque isn't southern!

Neither is Carmel, IN.... not by a long shot.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Neither is Carmel, IN.... not by a long shot.

Indiana is the most southern state in the Midwest! They even call it the Alabama of the North which I don't think is a compliment ?

 

[Webberweather53]

I hope the SE ridge blocks all the cold air from leaving my backyard ?

 

[RBR71]

I hope the SE ridge blocks all the cold air from leaving my backyard ?

Now your just being rude lol

 

[Tarheel1]

Dubuque isn't southern!

It’s SE of Minnesota

 

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

Dubuque isn't southern!

Mack endured his fair share of upstate pain. Let the man gloat……..

 

[Tarheel1]

Mack endured his fair share of upstate pain. Let the man gloat……..

Getting close!

 

[Webberweather53]

I just got Barney’d by the Euro and GFS ?

 

[Brent]

We’re all southern wx! I’m just south(western) ?. Good thing is if it snows around here I’ll be sure to send pics and video to make everyone jealous

Oh it'll be the same here whenever it happens ?
snow climo is way better than Dallas. Only three years have had a trace or less

 

[olhausen]

Webb you don’t know what it’s felt like (actually I’m sure you may have a few memories of humidity left) but it’s been just bad recently haven’t felt a true fall feeling in a Little this will let us know cold temperatures actually still do exist ?

Low temps have been way above avg here. Even in the warmer Octobers of the past I cold usually wait until November to due a final mow of the season after the first weekend of October. This season I’ve had to mow all this month and I’m going to have to mow agin this weekend. My lowest temp so far this month is only 39 and was the only time I’ve hit the 30s for lows.

 

[GaWx]

12z EPS much colder than 0Z. More at 11.

 

[Webberweather53]

The cold shot looks delayed (again) for the SE US and the core of it is shifting west on guidance.
Come to papa ?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

The cold shot looks delayed (again) for the SE US and the core of it is shifting west on guidance.
Come to papa ?

Quick! I’m countering you with the 384 GFS! dark days are ahead for you WEBB! ?

 

[Tarheel1]

Agree 100% with this map! ?

 

[Cadi40]

I’m simply blocking anybody who does not live in the SE this winter and yes it’s out of pure spite and jealousy. If you don’t have to suffer with us then I don’t care about your opinions.

 

[Webberweather53]

I’m simply blocking anybody who does not live in the SE this winter and yes it’s out of pure spite and jealousy. If you don’t have to suffer with us then I don’t care about your opinions.

Hoes mad

 

[Webberweather53]

Quick! I’m countering you with the 384 GFS! dark days are ahead for you WEBB! ?View attachment 93703

Oh no! Whatever will I do about being in the 70s with wall to wall sunshine and low humidity!?! ?

 

[Tarheel1]

I’m simply blocking anybody who does not live in the SE this winter and yes it’s out of pure spite and jealousy. If you don’t have to suffer with us then I don’t care about your opinions.

It’s almost November and I’ve only had a coldest low of 27! The struggle is real! ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Oh no! Whatever will I do about being in the 70s with wall to wall sunshine and low humidity!?! ?

Eat this Ratio

 

[Brent]

I’m simply blocking anybody who does not live in the SE this winter and yes it’s out of pure spite and jealousy. If you don’t have to suffer with us then I don’t care about your opinions.

Of course I went through 5 horrible snowless winters in Dallas before the miracle of February ? (and last year despite the fact it snowed in Abilene and Waco before that had a rough start)

 

[Webberweather53]

RatioView attachment 93706

I’ll take that every day of the week if it means I get snow on Christmas Eve (big snowstorm in El Paso that Xmas Eve). ?