Yeah, I hate those warmer normals. It almost feels like cheating. But the weeklies I see use 1981-2010. 3 F below that in KATL is pretty chilly for a lot of people with lows that could average in the high 30s if it is 3 BN.
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Pattern Novemburrr
- Thread starter SD
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Yeah, I hate those warmer normals. It almost feels like cheating. But the weeklies I see use 1981-2010. 3 F below that in KATL is pretty chilly for a lot of people with lows that could average in the high 30s if it is 3 BN.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Slightly below normal temps in November are still well above average for DJF. Hardly consider that unpleasant
LickWx
Member
Ehh, slightly below normal in November would be normal February/December weather in many cases. In particular Late February type temp. Still pleasant nonetheless.
That's your opinion. Opinions will vary. 3 BN for November at ATL based on 1981-2010 likely means lots of lows in the 30s, which is unpleasantly cold to many people that I know. But I love it and will walk in it whenever I get the chance.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Urban Heat Island will have something to say about that
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Late February is basically the end of winter lol. Kinda doesn’t count
1. Not on windy nights and not much effect in the burbs.
2. I just checked and ATL-ATH corridor actually averaged slightly cooler in Nov 1991-2020 vs Nov 1981-2010.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Its usually not windy when the coldest portion of an air mass is overhead, the winds are typically light at its peak underneath the cold core high, which will cut into the overnight lows in the city. There were a few outlier years in the mid 80s whose average lows were well into the 50s, the means at Atlanta haven’t really changed at all for Nov overnight lows. Also worth keeping in mind that the anomaly map Maue tweeted is for mean temperature not overnight lows which have been warmer anomaly wise than daytime maximums. Much more likely to be closer to average or even above slightly
pcbjr
Member
Who can complain (although I'm certain some can)? ...
Friggin awesome walkin' weather ...
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I looked at Novembers since 1991 at KATL that were 2-4 F BN (within a degree of where the Euro weeklies have them this Nov) or 50-52 F and counted the lows of 39 or colder:
1991: 17
1992: 13
1996: 13
2000: 13
2002: 12
2008: 14
2013: 11
2018: 13
- So, average 13 days of 39 or colder lows in Novembers that were 2-4 BN since 1991. This compares to only 10 for all Novembers since 1991. So, a decent increase to 43% of all days on average having lows of 39 or lower
- But people don't normally live at the airport. So, when I talk about what people experience in Atlanta, I don't mean at the airport, which is easily the warmest station for average lows. For example Jonesboro, a southern suburb, averaged 17 days at 39 or colder in these same Novembers. Athens, which is pretty comparable to ATL burbs was at 16 days.
Prestige Worldwide
Member
LickWx
Member
I swear some of these wx Twitter accounts are worse than used car salesman .
Thanks for posting. BAMwx probably wants higher "natgas" prices because some of their clients are likely energy companies. So, BAMwx will naturally hype the cold whenever it shows in the models.. They don't even try to hide it as they hash tag natgas. Bastardi is similar.
Aside: Companies like Maxar don't do this. They don't try to influence the price of natgas or any commodity. They're much more objective in that regard and thus have more credibility. So, when Maxar says it is going to be cold, I take notice.
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I don't recall the last Bleaklies to generate this much publicity. It's chilly but it's not like it is MB. And it isn't exactly accurate, especially in later weeks. Watch it be wrong a la Lucy pulling away the football lol though I hope not and really do expect the chill for at least the first half of the month.
Mr. Golf
Member
It's pretty tough to get winter weather in November outside of higher elevations. I wished we could hold off on it getting colder until December. November is just a tough month.
Brent
Member
I think WeatherBug has been smoking some weed
Webb you don’t know what it’s felt like (actually I’m sure you may have a few memories of humidity left) but it’s been just bad recently haven’t felt a true fall feeling in a Little this will let us know cold temperatures actually still do exist ?
True. 75-80% of the entire years here don't even get a trace of wintry precip. I just want it BN for a change.
By the way, credit to @Rain Cold for the "Bleaklies" reference. I'm not the originator but rather just a proliferator because it is so appropriate.
The pattern some of these models have been putting us in.. the blocking pattern seems to be entering something interesting and anomalous for someone
Brent
Member
I can't believe it wasn't that long ago I thought the heat would never end ? I'm still hugely skeptical of snow anywhere close to here but like this is crazy to even see modeled
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You love to see it, at least if you’re me
Lol 
It’s funny at how cold wants to settle in the central US every time 
Where is this in January?
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That system in the plains is set to track way north of us. Georgia is firmly in the warm sector. The cold doesn't make it very far south. The bright side is we save on natural gas usage, which is really more important these days than cold and snow. I think Maxar is going to bust big time on a colder than average November in the southeast.Where is this in January?
We get lots of east-based -NAOs and cutters in January lolWhere is this in January?
That western ridge looks nice, though. The core of the cold will be in the upper Midwest and northeast. Need that Atlantic ridging more west, and then we'd be in business big time.
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Yes, it’s a nice look for KY if it was December through February. I’ll take 50’s at night and 70’s in the day, all day long, until December. Bring me the cold in December!
360 hours
Ensembles start pumping the pac jet just a little past day 10 tho..
Maxar hasn’t forecasted a colder than average November in the SE or anywhere in the US for that matter. They do have a slightly colder than average 11/1-9 SE before warming back up as the Aleutian trough comes back to the Gulf of Alaska. They’re near normal overall for November in the SE. Near normal would be a win from my perspective. Normals for November haven’t warmed recently unlike those for winter. Regardless, models and guidance changes daily making it more fun to follow this time of year vs the doldrums of summer.
Eh I mean not that late ensemble images mean anything but this looks alright with me ridging somewhere around the west coast.. blocking still going strong over top and a trough somewhere in the SE ??
I’m sure eventually things will flip flop but at this point we gotta see in in the medium range across all models 
smast16
Member
I got excited for a millisecond yesterday for my upcoming trip to Gatlingburg.
Yep which is what is what im saying above as well, with that coming back it would make it hard to get legit cold again, hopefully that day 8 trough happens
Thought I was crazy seeing the trough continually back off with more of a resistant ridge.
smast16
Member
You can see The EPo beginning to reverse the PNA and crashing the party and reloading the Pacific trough just as out trough gets here.
Craptastic pattern boys.
I’m really not gonna put much stock in anything passed day 7 pattern wise. I’m noticing the models(especially the GFS) want to go back to La Niña climo after 270hrs or so consistently just as default.
True at least averages are still going down so if it ends up above normal it’ll probably still feel nice and not mid 80s ?
iGRXY
Member
GFS has continued to pump the ridge in the medium and long range. Also this time yesterday every model showed a clear pattern change. This is still over a week away and model fluxes during pattern changes are usually pretty big. I bet within a day or so we go right back to seeing a east coast trough again.