Brent
Member
I can't believe it wasn't that long ago I thought the heat would never end ? I'm still hugely skeptical of snow anywhere close to here but like this is crazy to even see modeled
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Pattern Novemburrr
- Thread starter SD
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You love to see it, at least if you’re me
Lol 
It’s funny at how cold wants to settle in the central US every time 
Where is this in January?
weatherfide
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That system in the plains is set to track way north of us. Georgia is firmly in the warm sector. The cold doesn't make it very far south. The bright side is we save on natural gas usage, which is really more important these days than cold and snow. I think Maxar is going to bust big time on a colder than average November in the southeast.Where is this in January?
We get lots of east-based -NAOs and cutters in January lolWhere is this in January?
That western ridge looks nice, though. The core of the cold will be in the upper Midwest and northeast. Need that Atlantic ridging more west, and then we'd be in business big time.
weatherfide
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Yes, it’s a nice look for KY if it was December through February. I’ll take 50’s at night and 70’s in the day, all day long, until December. Bring me the cold in December!
360 hours
Ensembles start pumping the pac jet just a little past day 10 tho..
Maxar hasn’t forecasted a colder than average November in the SE or anywhere in the US for that matter. They do have a slightly colder than average 11/1-9 SE before warming back up as the Aleutian trough comes back to the Gulf of Alaska. They’re near normal overall for November in the SE. Near normal would be a win from my perspective. Normals for November haven’t warmed recently unlike those for winter. Regardless, models and guidance changes daily making it more fun to follow this time of year vs the doldrums of summer.
Eh I mean not that late ensemble images mean anything but this looks alright with me ridging somewhere around the west coast.. blocking still going strong over top and a trough somewhere in the SE ??
I’m sure eventually things will flip flop but at this point we gotta see in in the medium range across all models 
smast16
Member
I got excited for a millisecond yesterday for my upcoming trip to Gatlingburg.
Yep which is what is what im saying above as well, with that coming back it would make it hard to get legit cold again, hopefully that day 8 trough happens
Thought I was crazy seeing the trough continually back off with more of a resistant ridge.
smast16
Member
You can see The EPo beginning to reverse the PNA and crashing the party and reloading the Pacific trough just as out trough gets here.
Craptastic pattern boys.
I’m really not gonna put much stock in anything passed day 7 pattern wise. I’m noticing the models(especially the GFS) want to go back to La Niña climo after 270hrs or so consistently just as default.
True at least averages are still going down so if it ends up above normal it’ll probably still feel nice and not mid 80s ?
iGRXY
Member
GFS has continued to pump the ridge in the medium and long range. Also this time yesterday every model showed a clear pattern change. This is still over a week away and model fluxes during pattern changes are usually pretty big. I bet within a day or so we go right back to seeing a east coast trough again.