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Pattern Novemburrr

NickyBGuarantee said:
Much more cold air to work with this run but it’s still showing up in medium range if the cold was denied past 240 at any point now that would be an actual model delay of cold air where I would start being worried about it being a mirage but this is not that View attachment 93790View attachment 93791
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It is interesting how the models keep trending slowly to the west with each run but then also intensify the cold once it finally comes. This delay from run to run is quite possibly due to the convective forcing from near record very warm W Pacific/Maritime Continent anomalies and the inherent biases of models being slowly corrected with each run from a pro met I’ve talked to. It does remind me of Feb of 2021.
 
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All of you in the Midwest flaunting your cold can keep it. There’s still a novelty factor in Oct/Nov, then when it’s -15 at 3 PM in January and your car won’t start you can come flaunt it some more. I’ll be enjoying the 60 degree weather at the beach (which is only 2 1/2 hrs away ?)
 
Cadi40 said:
All of you in the Midwest flaunting your cold can keep it. There’s still a novelty factor in Oct/Nov, then when it’s -15 at 3 PM in January and your car won’t start you can come flaunt it some more. I’ll be enjoying the 60 degree weather at the beach (which is only 2 1/2 hrs away ?)
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65D1D461-2CC2-4FC4-B0A7-79BE6E9D3C9A.png?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Sucks it's not winter and the wavelengths aren't longer, because a pattern like this would have some real potential in January-February.
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Yeah I’ve been thinking about this short wavelengths make all these warm ups and cool downs quick so we have to get more lucky more times this time of year
 
The 12z Euro throws the kitchen sink and the pipes its connected to at the CONUS later next week. The anticyclonic wave break in NW Canada sends every shred of cold air it can muster and hurls it in our general direction. Another reason it's getting delayed/shifted west w/ time is because the entire wave pattern is amplifying, which means you end up seeing shorter wavelength troughs/ridges that advect more air across them >> more warm advection into Canada & cold advection towards the US.
 
Lol the whole kitchen sink and pipes ?? but yeah it would probably also mean after the cold settles a sneaky ridge will try to pop back up and move east .. I wanna see ensembles
 
Webberweather53 said:
Good news for folks in the SE US is the 12z ECMWF has compromised a little with the GFS/GEFS and is more progressive this time around, but not as progressive as yesterday's 12z.
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Looks like this was just noise, today's ensemble mean looking a little more like this morning's 0z op
 
GaWx said:
It is interesting how the models keep trending slowly to the west with each run but then also intensify the cold once it finally comes. This delay from run to run is quite possibly due to the convective forcing from near record very warm W Pacific/Maritime Continent anomalies and the inherent biases of models being slowly corrected with each run from a pro met I’ve talked to. It does remind me of Feb of 2021.
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The tropical W Pacific is definitely on fire right now. We all know what that means!

An all you can eat buffet of SE ridge!

1635367979136.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
To pour even more salt on the wounds, here's the last 4 days of 12z EPS runs.

Lol

View attachment 93816
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This would hurt if we were actually going above normal and miss the cold completely .. instead we stay average with cool nights before the cold eventually makes it here ??‍♂️ If anything it’s more of a trend for the whole US to get in on the action
 
Webberweather53 said:
I mean, I wouldn't rule that out just yet.
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You’re right I’ll give it a 2% chance that cold air won’t hit us at all. At the end of the day this pattern is transient so any “warm up” or “cool down” won’t last too long and instead they’ll go back and forth as they have been but I don’t see many scenarios that big ole lump of cold misses us completely. Probably first freeze potential with it
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
You’re right I’ll give it a 2% chance that cold air won’t hit us at all. At the end of the day this pattern is transient so any “warm up” or “cool down” won’t last too long and instead they’ll go back and forth as they have been but I don’t see many scenarios that big ole lump of cold misses us completely. Probably first freeze potential with it
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I remember we was saying the same thing back in February ? it didn’t even get below freezing here with that when there was precip
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I remember we was saying the same thing back in February ? it didn’t even get below freezing here with that when there was precip
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The true definition of fire and ice … the only time all winter the SER wanted to flex like that .. maybe the cold shot was so amplified it really sparked the SER .. i dont know us Cold lovers shake at night thinking about that cruel week
 
If that energy entering the plains doesn’t get crushed, we might see our first modeled snow outside the mountains A32FDD56-C5B8-42BE-929F-6D95DBF51860.pngEAC8F5EA-0994-4057-A3A6-4DAE7603BDC4.png
 
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