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Pattern Novemburrr

Crazy how different the GFS and icon are with the cold air. Considering how horrible the icon has been in the past I would lend toward the GFS0621CDB1-90FC-4E23-8BC0-C18CE29BF1C2.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s not gonna work on the GFS, there’s some northern stream Energy on the Icon around the NE which effectively removes any sort of retreat of the cold air source, and effectively “presses” down on the system (note the NS energy around Maine View attachment 93962
Meanwhile the GFs is flatter/faster and doesn’t have much of a press and weak N/S energy near the lakes, and tries to build heights off the SE coast allowing
Minimal retreat of the marginal cold air source, likely mostly meaning cold rain View attachment 93963it’s awesome to track something this early..
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I need ensembles this is hour 150 so this could very well be a “possibility” but I need some ensembles to climb aboard
 
As long as we can keep the ridge in central/west Canada to drop vorticity down the eastern side though the lakes into the NE to keep a cool/cold feed and the pacific leaking weak vorticity though we have some uncharacteristically early potential. That said we are going to have some issues with wave spacing, timing, cold availability.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Wow is it too early to be banking on a NW trend? This is an amazing look this far out for some potential .. so interesting models are trying to latch on to this.. euro will be telling
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It's mildly amusing. Too early in the season for any outside of the mountains. Nice cold rainy days, though. Wish I was in Boone, NC.
 
Lickwx said:
I remember @NickyBGuarantee laughing at me saying we wouldn’t be in the 50s . Who’s laughing now nicky , high 70 today 72 yesterday and 60s tomorrow .
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Forgot your meds again today? I also remember you saying we wouldn’t have our first freeze until after November 15th let’s see how that works out for you
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NickyBGuarantee said:
Forgot your meds again today? I also remember you saying we wouldn’t have our first freeze until after November 15th let’s see how that works out for you
View attachment 93981
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You put a laughing emoji on a post I made saying we had a shot at our first sub 60 highs but we probably weren’t going to get them now . … don’t get so aggressive and salty . I get your angst because the crazy Canadian model began it’s usual winter antics of throwing the entire Arctic at us . Ahhh the Canadian . I also never said till after November 15. I didn’t put a date on our first freeze bro! All I said is we probably wouldn’t see one , outside of the usual spots like roxboro . You even agreed , don’t play that.
 
Lickwx said:
You put a laughing emoji on a post I made saying we had a shot at our first sub 60 highs but we probably weren’t going to get them now . … don’t get so aggressive and salty . I get your angst because the crazy Canadian model began it’s usual winter antics of throwing the entire Arctic at us . Ahhh the Canadian . I also never said till after November 15. I didn’t put a date on our first freeze bro! All I said is we probably wouldn’t see one , outside of the usual spots like roxboro . You even agreed , don’t play that.
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You came at me homie ? I don’t take reactions on posts seriously I don’t think you should either .. I think we will see sub 60 highs soon before November 15 and I think we see our first frost and freeze before then as well ??‍♂️ If we do I’m not going to aggressively make a post at you I just think with where the models are at it’s looking pretty likely we hit it in the first week of November. Love you Liz man
 
Folks in the southern Plains that prefer it colder (just to clarify, I’m not talking about snow) should really like the 12Z EPS as it is a significantly colder run there vs the 0Z. For the SE, after an initial slightly warmer run/delay in cold (it is warmer November 3-5), it also later (November 7-10) comes in significantly colder making the overall run a colder one for the south central to SE US.
 
Well the euro giving a little nod towards the possibility … certainly I like seeing all the models wanting to do something off the East coast .. we just need more cold air obviously for it being in early November. But gives us something to look at .. more than likely the mountains will enjoy
 
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