• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern November Knock-Out

SD said:
Still early but models are hinting at a nice wedge next week

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Yeah we actually discussed this in our synoptic meteorology class... We have the large-scale pattern for it w/ North Pacific high latitude blocking accompanied by split flow in the southern stream and a cold core trough over southeastern/Atlantic Canada (albeit not as strong as what we observe in the heart of winter)...

Really just about any time we have some legitimate window for wintry weather here in the southeastern US and the North Pacific high latitude blocking is dominating relative to the North Atlantic, look for an overrunning/CAD event...
gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_17.png
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I read that DFW has never recorded a 90F temp in the month of November.
Click to expand...

True(record is 89 set several times), but actually kind of weird because December and January has(colder months overall)... January actually hit 93 in 1911, December is 90 in 1951
 
Brent said:
True(record is 89 set several times), but actually kind of weird because December and January has(colder months overall)... January actually hit 93 in 1911, December is 90 in 1951
Click to expand...
If it hit 93 in Jan 1911, im afraid to know how hot it got that summer.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Today's the 3-year anniversary of the freak snowstorm that struck the SC midlands courtesy of a very strong cut-off ULL. Dumped about 4-5" of snow @whatalife's place...
View attachment 1466

View attachment 1467
View attachment 1468

View attachment 1469
View attachment 1470
View attachment 1471
Click to expand...
I remember that event!
Very windy/warm Halloween evening - then, BAM! dusting of snow here - frigid that morning for youth soccer.
Total surprise as no local forecaster mentioned any wintry weather overnight.
 
Last edited:
GeorgiaGirl said:
That's one thing to remember, especially outside of the northern parts of the southeast. You can be very warm all winter but it takes just one storm to get to or eclipse average.
Click to expand...

Yep 2 winters ago most of the winter was not great at all. Most of January was above normal temp wise except for maybe 5-6 days. But during those 5-6 days most of northern middle Tennessee and the Nashville area in general received anywhere from 6-12 inches of snow. It was Nashville’s and many other middle Tennessee areas biggest snow in over a decade. That one storm made it one of my best winters ever in the 10 years I had lived here. But had we not got the big one it would have been one of the worst. On the Flip side I’ve had a few really cold winters that didn’t produce much snow wise.
 
I'm starting to wonder if this true warm spell actually ends in about 8 days. It'll still be above, but maybe not way above.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I'm starting to wonder if this true warm spell actually ends in about 8 days. It'll still be above, but maybe not way above.
Click to expand...

The ensemble mean has generally been cooling (in a stair-step progression) during this period. The control side swipes the upper southeast with a monstrous arctic air mass...
eps_t850a_c_conus_41.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The ensemble mean has generally been cooling (in a stair-step progression) during this period. The control side swipes the upper southeast with a monstrous arctic air mass...
View attachment 1476
Click to expand...
Yeah - I'm archiving runs for a few days to see the progression, and if it suggests anything; so far it does, but until there are a few more days to review, it's all at best speculation from the southern outpost ... :confused:
 
Webberweather53 said:
The ensemble mean has generally been cooling (in a stair-step progression) during this period. The control side swipes the upper southeast with a monstrous arctic air mass...
View attachment 1476
Click to expand...
That could provide some monster wedges for western Carolins, if arctic air was to set up in that fashion! There is some pretty impressive arctic air setting up in Western Canada! Whether we ever see any down our way, is the bigger question! I'd say it moderates, Canada warms through Nov/Dec, then we wait/hope / look for more to build by Jan/Feb! :(
 
Can't wait for the 80s to return next week! I love November ! :)
 
Webberweather53 said:
The ensemble mean has generally been cooling (in a stair-step progression) during this period. The control side swipes the upper southeast with a monstrous arctic air mass...
View attachment 1476
Click to expand...

This will likely happen. I am going to be in Myrtle Beach next weekend and it is one of the few times I would want it to be a little warmer. If I was going to Gatlinburg or somewhere else in the mountains it would torch.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Can't wait for the 80s to return next week! I love November ! :)
Click to expand...

VcN1NRX.jpg
 
Webber, I read your twitter stuff about the +iod. Will that hurt us bad despite a -QBO and possibly an east based niña? I saw 1951, 2005 and 2016 as only analogs for this configuration. Is there any reason to be optimistic this winter? Just curious
 
Mr. Golf said:
Webber, I read your twitter stuff about the +iod. Will that hurt us bad despite a -QBO and possibly an east based niña? I saw 1951, 2005 and 2016 as only analogs for this configuration. Is there any reason to be optimistic this winter? Just curious
Click to expand...

Redistribution of mass related to alterations in convective heating in response to a +IOD in a NINA background favors even more retraction of the North Pacific jet, and thus poleward displacement of the Aleutian ridge... This forcing directly interferes with the EQBO's tendency to suppress the anomalous Aleutian high but is currently superimposed onto the background state & inter annual persistence. Normally, this would favor a more robust SE US ridge, however, there's a peculiar, but insignificant-very insignificant anomalous + height anomaly center in/around Greenland which appears to mask this outcome in the differential composite between +IOD/cool neutral-NINA events and strong -IOD/NINAs.
hiK5nba5oG.png

Here's the NDJFM SSTa differential for the two sets of years using ERSSTv4. Note the +IOD in the IO and stronger -PDO signature in the +IOD/-ENSO years...
HyXuT66k4S.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Redistribution of mass related to alterations in convective heating in response to a +IOD in a NINA background favors even more retraction of the North Pacific jet, and thus poleward displacement of the Aleutian ridge... This forcing directly interferes with the EQBO's tendency to suppress the anomalous Aleutian high but is currently superimposed onto the background state & inter annual persistence. Normally, this would favor a more robust SE US ridge, however, there's a peculiar, but insignificant-very insignificant anomalous + height anomaly center in/around Greenland which appears to mask this outcome in the differential composite between +IOD/cool neutral-NINA events and strong -IOD/NINAs.
View attachment 1477

Here's the NDJFM SSTa differential for the two sets of years using ERSSTv4. Note the +IOD in the IO and stronger -PDO signature in the +IOD/-ENSO years...
View attachment 1478
Click to expand...
Webber, do you think the Pacific jet will be more retracted this yr compared to last yr? I think that's important because it was so prevalent last winter.
 
Mr. Golf said:
Webber, do you think the Pacific jet will be more retracted this yr compared to last yr? I think that's important because it was so prevalent last winter.
Click to expand...

The Pacific jet was not extensive at all last winter, it was very retracted as you would anticipate for a NINA as evidenced by the anomalous blocking high superimposed onto the climatological Aleutian Low center. A similar pattern would favor a stout SE US ridge and strong PV (+AO/NAO)
ZFp90bpp1H.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The Pacific jet was not extensive at all last winter, it was very retracted as you would anticipate for a NINA as evidenced by the anomalous blocking high superimposed onto the climatological Aleutian Low center. A similar pattern would favor a stout SE US ridge and strong PV (+AO/NAO)
View attachment 1479
Click to expand...
Of course I'm no expert like yourself, but I thought retracted meant to hold back or pull back. What was that jet that kept plowing into the Pacific nw or n California all of last winter then?
 
Mr. Golf said:
Of course I'm no expert like yourself, but I thought retracted meant to hold back or pull back. What was that jet that kept plowing into the Pacific nw or n California all of last winter then?
Click to expand...
Even when it's retracted the Pacific jet can easily reach the west coast of the US as a very formidable entity but against climatology it was weaker than usual and especially compared to the 2015-16 super NINO winter
 
GaWx said:
The difference between the 12Z GEFS and the colder 12Z EPS days 9-11 is largely a NW Canadian/Arctic high that the Euro/EPS bring down into the Midwest/Plains (with sub -20C 850s getting to far southern Canada) but which the GFS/GEFS keeps in Canada. Which is right? Any guesses? In between? This is unusual because more often than not the GEFS is colder.
Click to expand...

To some extent (not as strong/cold a high as the Tue runs and not that much down into the SE like those runs), the Euro is back to this in today's 12Z run after not having it in the 0Z run. For much of the E US, especially MW/NE, the 12Z Euro is like on the Tue runs colder than the GFS around that time.
 
Drought monitor update, getting worse in both Carolinas Piedmont areas! :(
 
Tarheel1 said:
Drought monitor update, getting worse in both Carolinas Piedmont areas! :(
Click to expand...
I couldn't imagine what it would be like in both the Carolinas and GA if we didn't have Irma and Nate. We got the bulk of our rain from those two storms over a couple month period.
 
fortunately I'm going up north at least twice this winter, at least record highs up there are in the 60s mostly :p
 
I hope this winter will bring me some goods where im at, because if not ill have to chase.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top