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Pattern November Knock-Out

GaWx said:
The 12Z GFS isn't suggesting the warm spell in the SE US would end earlier. Rather, it is suggesting similar timing of the end but that the change would be much colder than all earlier GFS runs were showing. For example, lows at ATL 11/10-11 are in the mid to uipper 30s vs them being high 40s to near 50 on earlier GFS runs. Plus this could be just the start of a trend to colder and colder runs. The NE US and Midwest still get the brunt of the cold on the 12Z. But again, it is much colder than earlier runs even down into the SE US as well as in the Midwest and NE.
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Well, right now I'm slapping mosquitoes again so it needs to get on in here, lol. But it's worth it because they turned on the technology in my yard last night. Suddenly everything started blazing over night. Everywhere I look in the yard is some amazing color, and some trees have never been so radiant. It's the vines and the scrubs, the big trees and small trees, even the ornamental grasses have all started shouting really loudly. Never seen it do this.... like turning on a light switch to everything at the same time. It seems binging and purging with water and cold stimulated amazing displays. Drought, then 5 inchs from a hurricane, then bone dry and another 5 inches from a hurricane. Then go from summer to wood stove and back to summer, and bingo bring on the acid, lol. Amazing. T
 
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pcbjr said:
Sounds like a November Bird Song ... Dry your eyes in the wind ... snow and rain ...

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:cool:
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Love it! Might be the last chase of the year. Taking the other half on her first chase, so it could get interesting, may have my hands (and ears) full:eek:. May be dodging some anomalously large hailers for this area, that is definitely the biggest concern storm wise, could see a few baseballs, pretty rare up here. We'll see how it plays out. I'm 50/50 atm as the low isn't looking to impressive but the other parameters may make up for it. Get another 10 to 20kt of backing winds and she could really start to blow up (the storm mode that is ;)). We'll see if we can get a few stay discreet, gonna be searching the warm front in the mid to late am. Good thing is most of the crops are in so should be fairly good visibility, chasing in 8ft corn sucks! Hopefully my camera mount will hold up this time and I'll have some stuff to post, along with a potentially panicked woman! lol. The saying goes, in the fall in Indiana you don't chase twisters, they chase you (have not provided that quote to her yet lol). If I had my choice I'd chase right on down to Franklin county NC and never come back!:D

The 18Z NAM (grain of salt taken) went nuts up here. This is a crazy sounding for November, right over the area we're gonna be working.
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Jackstraw said:
Love it! Might be the last chase of the year. Taking the other half on her first chase, so it could get interesting, may have my hands (and ears) full:eek:. May be dodging some anomalously large hailers for this area, that is definitely the biggest concern storm wise, could see a few baseballs, pretty rare up here. We'll see how it plays out. I'm 50/50 atm as the low isn't looking to impressive but the other parameters may make up for it. Get another 10 to 20kt of backing winds and she could really start to blow up (the storm mode that is ;)). We'll see if we can get a few stay discreet, gonna be searching the warm front in the mid to late am. Good thing is most of the crops are in so should be fairly good visibility, chasing in 8ft corn sucks! Hopefully my camera mount will hold up this time and I'll have some stuff to post, along with a potentially panicked woman! lol. The saying goes, in the fall in Indiana you don't chase twisters, they chase you (have not provided that quote to her yet lol). If I had my choice I'd chase right on down to Franklin county NC and never come back!:D

The 18Z NAM (grain of salt taken) went nuts up here. This is a crazy sounding for November, right over the area we're gonna be working.
nam_2017110418_027_39.88--86.55.png

nam_2017110418_027_39.88--86.55.png
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Careful, Man!
That triangle area from Anderson to Kokomo to Ft. Wayne is a hot bed ... :(
Better yet, head SW to Brown County (at least you have scenery and valleys to duck into if need be ...)
But on another note, I'd prefer Haywood County, NC, just IMHO ... :cool:

Anyways ... stay safe ... need you here, for winter and next 'Cane season ... ;) (and the music) ... :rolleyes:
 
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Dallas hit 90 for the 2nd time ever in November yesterday and today should go for three easily

The front Tuesday cannot be soon enough. Perhaps Wednesday will fail to hit 60... maybe lol
 
Both 00z Gfs and Euro operational takeaways: mostly zonal flow with little kinks in the trough/ridge pattern. No extremes either way for the foreseeable future.
 
tennessee storm said:
Take it then not going do anybody much good ...upper air pattern supports a se ridge to me ... matter time
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Upper air pattern doesn't support snow , but one day it will.... matter of time, and law of averages
 
6Z gfs much colder run this morning. Almost the same as the other day. I would like to see some more like it but were talking about the gfs here.
 
ATLwxfan said:
I’ll take a zonal flow and run like I stole something.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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And if you take the GFS as truth, the next time the ridge comes back it's not even going to mean 80s in the se.

(Of course I won't but still)
 
After a respite yesterday, the Super Ensemble today is back to the SE cool trend; not as significant as earlier in the week ... We'll see ... but fun watching IMHO ... :confused:

sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif
 
dsaur said:
Well, right now I'm slapping mosquitoes again so it needs to get on in here, lol. But it's worth it because they turned on the technology in my yard last night. Suddenly everything started blazing over night. Everywhere I look in the yard is some amazing color, and some trees have never been so radiant. It's the vines and the scrubs, the big trees and small trees, even the ornamental grasses have all started shouting really loudly. Never seen it do this.... like turning on a light switch to everything at the same time. It seems binging and purging with water and cold stimulated amazing displays. Drought, then 5 inchs from a hurricane, then bone dry and another 5 inches from a hurricane. Then go from summer to wood stove and back to summer, and bingo bring on the acid, lol. Amazing. T
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Tony, I think it is due to going from one extreme of a very warm 1st 3 weeks of Oct to the other extreme of a very cool last week of Oct. Consistent lows in the 40s and 30s will always get the colors going soon after an extended warm period. And these sudden transitions often lead to the prettiest fall leaves. Enjoy it!

Anyone else have any current reports about the autumn leaves?

Meanwhile, ever since my last post on Friday, the GFS runs have obviously warmed back up considerably for the SE US to about normal for the days following when the torch ends (still around 11/8) averaged out. However, it is still quite cold in much of the Midwest as well as in much of the NE US a few days later. And at least the torch is still projected to end. Near normal late fall wx is just fine with me. It is fantastic for walking. We're no longer in summer when near normal is uncomfortable. Furthermore, those wanting it cold in W Canada to build up their snowpack
still have that to be happy about. It stays cold there for the next 2 weeks!
 
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dsaur said:
Well, right now I'm slapping mosquitoes again so it needs to get on in here, lol. But it's worth it because they turned on the technology in my yard last night. Suddenly everything started blazing over night. Everywhere I look in the yard is some amazing color, and some trees have never been so radiant. It's the vines and the scrubs, the big trees and small trees, even the ornamental grasses have all started shouting really loudly. Never seen it do this.... like turning on a light switch to everything at the same time. It seems binging and purging with water and cold stimulated amazing displays. Drought, then 5 inchs from a hurricane, then bone dry and another 5 inches from a hurricane. Then go from summer to wood stove and back to summer, and bingo bring on the acid, lol. Amazing. T
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Whatever you do, avoid the brown stuff, Tony ... LOL ... :eek:
 
Euro 2 meter minimum temps during this cold air damming event its forecasting next weekend. Starting to get a little too close for comfort in the traditional CAD areas of VA, NC, SC, and GA
ecmwf_t2min_nc_31.png
 
GaWx said:
Tony, I think it is due to going from one extreme of a very warm 1st 3 weeks of Oct to the other extreme of a very cool last week of Oct. Consistent lows in the 40s and 30s will always get the colors going soon after an extended warm period. And these sudden transitions often lead to the prettiest fall leaves. Enjoy it!

Anyone else have any current reports about the autumn leaves?

Meanwhile, ever since my last post on Friday, the GFS runs have obviously warmed back up considerably for the SE US to about normal for the days following when the torch ends (still around 11/8) averaged out. However, it is still quite cold in much of the Midwest as well as in much of the NE US a few days later. And at least the torch is still projected to end. Near normal late fall wx is just fine with me. It is fantastic for walking. We're no longer in summer when near normal is uncomfortable. Furthermore, those wanting it cold in W Canada to build up their snowpack
still have that to be happy about. It stays cold there for the next 2 weeks!
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The colors have really started to pop around here! Kickstarted by some cooler nighttime temps! They are delayed by about a week or two, but color is very vivid! I've heard dry weather makes the colors brighter, so my back yard has been very dry the last few months.
 
tennessee storm said:
Take it then not going do anybody much good ...upper air pattern supports a se ridge to me ... matter time
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We could have the best setup in the world and it most likely wouldn’t result in snow for most of us this time of year. I’d much rather have the pattern we are in now then some great setup that would be useless to us until at least a month from now. You’d think it’s mid January and not early November based on some of your posts. :)
 
pcbjr said:
Whatever you do, avoid the brown stuff, Tony ... LOL ... :eek:
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No visits to the trip tent here, Phil :) But like Larry says I need to enjoy it. The leaves are about ready to let go with one good wind, and rain is coming, and wind behind it, I'm sure. I'll be glad when the acorns stop falling. It's bang, bang, bang all day and night, hitting the roofs, and the black walnuts are a menace there are so many this year. T
 
As Webb is showing, the 12Z Euro is colder than the 0Z Euro. It suggests that there could be a very nice and early cold rain next Sunday all of the way back to Atlanta thanks to a very nice wedge. That would make a lot of SE CAD area folks happy. :)

There's been a lot of back and forth on the Euro and also the 12Z GFS. So, there's lots of uncertainty to say the least about how cold it will get this weekend as well as to the potential wedged precip event.

Prior to the potential wedged precip event, check out the huge contrasts between the 12Z models for Sat AM lows at RDU. The 12Z CMC, which I usually ignore due to it not being a good model overall, is ridiculously cold ~24 and I think too cold. The 12Z Euro is in the middle at around 31. The 12Z GFS is much warmer at 50!

Anyone want to guess this Saturday's RDU low?

Edit: Tony, the hickory nut falls here at this time of year are loud and probably not roof friendly.
 
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GaWx said:
As Webb is showing, the 12Z Euro is colder than the 0Z Euro. It suggests that there could be a very nice and early cold rain next Sunday all of the way back to Atlanta thanks to a very nice wedge. That would make a lot of SE CAD area folks happy. :)

There's been a lot of back and forth on the Euro and also the 12Z GFS. So, there's lots of uncertainty to say the least about how cold it will get this weekend as well as to the potential wedged precip event.

Prior to the potential wedged precip event, check out the huge contrasts between the 12Z models for Sat AM lows at RDU. The 12Z CMC, which I usually ignore due to it not being a good model overall, is ridiculously cold ~24 and I think too cold. The 12Z Euro is in the middle at around 31. The 12Z GFS is much warmer at 50!

Anyone want to guess this Saturday's RDU low?

Edit: Tony, the hickory nut falls here at this time of year are loud and probably not roof friendly.
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38 for RAH Saturday morning!
I'm not that worried about temps for the upcoming week or two, I am hoping the wetter pattern and rain chances hold up!
 
GaWx said:
As Webb is showing, the 12Z Euro is colder than the 0Z Euro. It suggests that there could be a very nice and early cold rain next Sunday all of the way back to Atlanta thanks to a very nice wedge. That would make a lot of SE CAD area folks happy. :)

There's been a lot of back and forth on the Euro and also the 12Z GFS. So, there's lots of uncertainty to say the least about how cold it will get this weekend as well as to the potential wedged precip event.

Prior to the potential wedged precip event, check out the huge contrasts between the 12Z models for Sat AM lows at RDU. The 12Z CMC, which I usually ignore due to it not being a good model overall, is ridiculously cold ~24 and I think too cold. The 12Z Euro is in the middle at around 31. The 12Z GFS is much warmer at 50!

Anyone want to guess this Saturday's RDU low?

Edit: Tony, the hickory nut falls here at this time of year are loud and probably not roof friendly.
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Well, the EPS number of members w/ <32F next weekend over the CAD regions more than doubled vs the last run, and verbatim, the ensemble is hinting at some freezing rain along/NW of I-40 from Greensboro to Asheville & Hendersonville...
eps_tmin_32_nc_29.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Well, the EPS number of members w/ <32F next weekend over the CAD regions more than doubled vs the last run, and verbatim, the ensemble is hinting at some freezing rain along/NW of I-40 from Greensboro to Asheville & Hendersonville...
View attachment 1493
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That set up looks odd. Asheville does not usually get ZR from a wedge set up. That looks like a typical temp map on a cold day, with highest elevations are coldest . I've seen mid 20s in GSP and Athens , with 50s in AVL. Just saying that doesn't look like a typical wedge.
 
As I mentioned several days ago on another thread, the classical planetary wave recipe for cold air damming/Miller B events here in the Carolinas usually involves high latitude North Pacific blocking, accompanying split flow, and a deep trough over SE Canada and the Great Lakes and New England... This large-scale configuration in general favors CAD because the large north pacific ridge deposits Siberian air into North America, and the trough over SE Canada and the Lakes becomes attached to this air mass and allows for very prominent area of arctic high pressure to filter down in their wake. Meanwhile, the split flow generated underneath the North Pacific blocking allows for disturbances to get caught into the subtropical jet underneath them and entice general SW flow aloft over the southeastern US and this SW flow is often accompanied by WAA, which (in conflict w/ most pre conceived notions) only "locks in" the CAD by strengthening the low-mid level temperature inversion that prohibits appreciable mixing and inducing clouds over the CAD dome that protects it from solar insolation... Shouldn't be terribly surprising then that NWP is starting to sniff out a CAD threat in the medium range
eps_z500a_5d_nh_33.png

CAD:Miller B z500 NC Winter Storms.gif
 
Tarheel1 said:
That set up looks odd. Asheville does not usually get ZR from a wedge set up. That looks like a typical temp map on a cold day, with highest elevations are coldest . I've seen mid 20s in GSP and Athens , with 50s in AVL. Just saying that doesn't look like a typical wedge.
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There's nothing terribly unusual about this at all, it's a pretty normal hybrid in-situ-classical CAD wedge on the Euro & its ensemble suite.
ecmwf_slp_precip_east_29.png
 
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