You'll get all the goods you can handle ,if your goods are heat! Won't have to chase at all!I hope this winter will bring me some goods where im at, because if not ill have to chase.
You'll get all the goods you can handle ,if your goods are heat! Won't have to chase at all!I hope this winter will bring me some goods where im at, because if not ill have to chase.
do mathematical models 'hype' stuff? interesting, I guess AI has invaded weather models already. We're doomed.I'm thinking the control hypes stuff up like CMC does.
I meant to say way over zealous with predictions :weenie:do mathematical models 'hype' stuff? interesting, I guess AI has invaded weather models already. We're doomed.
Yeah night and day. I want to pull more towards the Euro, because the gfs has been hinting at this back n forth for few days now. Plus its weenie in me, lolHrm, tonight's Euro and Gfs at 192 are as opposite as you can get:
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"Its the weenie in me" please dont take that in a different wayYeah night and day. I want to pull more towards the Euro, because the gfs has been hinting at this back n forth for few days now. Plus its weenie in me, lol
Hrm, tonight's Euro and Gfs at 192 are as opposite as you can get:
This could be the start of winter season with the models in disagreement with warm and cold
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Wow, I was thinking that the warm spell might end sooner than I thought, but so far the 12z GFS is....not what I expected. I just started looking at it because of Larry's comments.
The 12Z GFS isn't suggesting the warm spell in the SE US would end earlier. Rather, it is suggesting similar timing of the end but that the change would be much colder than all earlier GFS runs were showing. For example, lows at ATL 11/10-11 are in the mid to uipper 30s vs them being high 40s to near 50 on earlier GFS runs. Plus this could be just the start of a trend to colder and colder runs. The NE US and Midwest still get the brunt of the cold on the 12Z. But again, it is much colder than earlier runs even down into the SE US as well as in the Midwest and NE.
Cool!Similar to what the 12Z GEFS did for the 12Z GFS, the 18Z GEFS is validating the colder 18Z GFS nicely. So, it is looking more and more like this colder trend is for real. Not only is the 2nd week of Nov looking much colder than before and colder than normal, the latest trends suggest the SE may not go back to a torch the 3rd week of Nov and instead be near normal.
Using the 18Z GFS as a rough guideline, RDU would only be near +3 for Nov 1-18. That would be much cooler than how it looked (for the 1st half of Nov) on early week model consensus and would open the door to a near normal Nov. should it cool back off soon afterward..
It's amazing what dropping an upper low off the PNW coast and cutting it off and allowing a ridge to build over top will do to the downstream pattern versus having a stringy full latitude troughSimilar to what the 12Z GEFS did for the 12Z GFS, the 18Z GEFS is validating the colder 18Z GFS nicely. So, it is looking more and more like this colder trend is for real. Not only is the 2nd week of Nov looking much colder than before and colder than normal, the latest trends suggest the SE may not go back to a torch the 3rd week of Nov and instead be near normal.
Using the 18Z GFS as a rough guideline, RDU would only be near +3 for Nov 1-18. That would be much cooler than how it looked (for the 1st half of Nov) on early week model consensus and would open the door to a near normal Nov. should it cool back off soon afterward..
Accu35, I bet the gfs don't look like that.
it dont... gfs looks nothing even remotely like this.... above average in this timeframe...Accu35, I bet the gfs don't look like that.![]()
Not as boring as Western trough, Southeast ridge!and the euro continue to be pretty boring... meh... pretty much zonal flow... dilly dilly
I know I'm temporarily displaced out of the South but am keeping my fingers crossed for tomorrow, might be a good chase day for me. Other than that the last 2-3 weeks have been absolutely brutal up here, 40's and rain almost every dayLooks like a pretty big severe threat in the midwest this weekend. Currently an enhanced risk for areas of IL/IN/OH.
What part of Indiana are you in ?I know I'm temporarily displaced out of the South but am keeping my fingers crossed for tomorrow, might be a good chase day for me. Other than that the last 2-3 weeks have been absolutely brutal up here, 40's and rain almost every day![]()
I understand, just wanted to post the image. GFS has been back n forth with cold, but has been trending cooler as Larry and Webb has been talking about. Yes the CMC is pretty aggressive with this cold but i wouldn't rule it out. CMC has been known of handling cold pretty well in the past.it dont... gfs looks nothing even remotely like this.... above average in this timeframe...
I know I'm temporarily displaced out of the South but am keeping my fingers crossed for tomorrow, might be a good chase day for me. Other than that the last 2-3 weeks have been absolutely brutal up here, 40's and rain almost every day![]()