• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern November Knock-Out

ForsythSnow said:
There's some good to that. Get bitter cold up in Canada, build up the snowpack there. The Euro puts down a good amount of snow up there and in the Upper Plains too.
Click to expand...
Yeah I noticed it gets colder the closer we get to that time frame in Canada as well.
 
GaStorm said:
Yeah I noticed it gets colder the closer we get to that time frame in Canada as well.
Click to expand...
when all that cold air builds, eventually it has to release its mother load southward right? I seen it happen many times as where Canada builds bitter cold, southeast stays warm until that cold starts slowing moving southeast. It may take a while but it eventually gets here in some intense way
 
accu35 said:
when all that cold air builds, eventually it has to release its mother load southward right? I seen it happen many times as where Canada builds bitter cold, southeast stays warm until that cold starts slowing moving southeast. It may take a while but it eventually gets here in some intense way
Click to expand...
Yep. I'm hoping the extreme cold in winter will bleed down into our area at some point. Could be an interesting scenario if there is a good snow pack to our north as well.
 
Interestingly, despite all of this warm Nov talk, the last two EPS runs each came in colder than the prior ones and now both the 12Z EPS and the 12Z GEFS are near normal in the SE US starting 11/9 and continuing through 11/12. For 11/13-14, the 12Z EPS maintains near normal while the 12Z GEFS goes slightly colder than normal 11/13-15. All of this implies that any torch may last only one week.
 
GaWx said:
Interestingly, despite all of this warm Nov talk, the last two EPS runs each came in colder than the prior ones and now both the 12Z EPS and the 12Z GEFS are near normal in the SE US starting 11/9 and continuing through 11/12. For 11/13-14, the 12Z EPS maintains near normal while the 12Z GEFS goes slightly colder than normal 11/13-15. All of this implies that any torch may last only one week.
Click to expand...
Yep but even still we are going to have to erase a very substantial deficit, we will need temps to average significantly below normal ~2-3C for the last half of the month to just get back to or slightly below 0 and that's asking a lot in this kind of climate but doable when there is predominantly -ENSO forcing
 
Last edited:
ForsythSnow said:
There's some good to that. Get bitter cold up in Canada, build up the snowpack there. The Euro puts down a good amount of snow up there and in the Upper Plains too.
Click to expand...
Yeah it's definitely helping to set us up for an early winter Cp airmass barrage that often occurs in NIÑA or cool biased neutral winters in/around December and sometimes this lingers into January. I'm all for it, would be great to have a BN December for once, haven't seen that since 2010 then again many of us received a rare white Christmas so this is probably the price we had to pay for it (coupled w/ warmer climate too)
 
A snowpack is better than no snowpack, iirc there was no/very limited snowpack due to how warm it was over North America early last winter.
 
If I remember correctly, 2010-2011 was with a strong La Nina and it's one of the best winters in recent memory. I feel like I remember all of the projections that year were for a warm entirety of the winter...needless to say, all of those projections were wrong. (February may have been warm. I don't remember as my long term memory is very bad.)

Of course the difference here is we're talking about a weak La Nina.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
If I remember correctly, 2010-2011 was with a strong La Nina and it's one of the best winters in recent memory. I feel like I remember all of the projections that year were for a warm entirety of the winter...needless to say, all of those projections were wrong. (February may have been warm. I don't remember as my long term memory is very bad.)

Of course the difference here is we're talking about a weak La Nina.
Click to expand...
Started out very, very cold in Dec and ended up real warm in Feb ... pollen was a bear that year ... but we pay the price, I 'spose ...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah it's definitely helping to set us up for an early winter Cp airmass barrage that often occurs in NIÑA or cool biased neutral winters in/around December and sometimes this lingers into January. I'm all for it, would be great to have a BN December for once, haven't seen that since 2010 then again many of us received a rare white Christmas so this is probably the price we had to pay for it (coupled w/ warmer climate too)
Click to expand...
Do you think the warming climate is one reason why it's so incredibly tough to get a cold December lately ? 6 straight insanely warm Decembers in a row can't be just a coincidence can it ? Maybe this is the new normal and delayed winters will be something we should expect more and more in the future ?
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
If I remember correctly, 2010-2011 was with a strong La Nina and it's one of the best winters in recent memory. I feel like I remember all of the projections that year were for a warm entirety of the winter...needless to say, all of those projections were wrong. (February may have been warm. I don't remember as my long term memory is very bad.)

Of course the difference here is we're talking about a weak La Nina.
Click to expand...

The one, very large glaring discrepancy most often forget and/or overlook is the huge Icelandic volcanic eruption that went off earlier that year which impacted the high-latitude radiative balance and in concert with the continued, unusually low solar activity and very robust +AMO regime that lingered after the 2009-10 NINO helped bring about the unusual pattern that was observed... While this winter is entering into a regime with relatively low solar activity, the AMO is nowhere close to where it was near the beginning of 2010-11, and we currently have no major high-latitude volcanic eruptions to speak of to greatly disrupt the radiative balance of the extratropical stratosphere and perhaps entice blocking...
 
Could be 90 here Thursday Dallas has NEVER hit 90 in November before...

The 34 Saturday morning was the coldest in October since 1993 lol
 
I guess the plus side to really warm weather in the cold months is when an arctic front comes through and there's a 30 degree temperature difference by about 30 miles lol
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Do you think the warming climate is one reason why it's so incredibly tough to get a cold December lately ? 6 straight insanely warm Decembers in a row can't be just a coincidence can it ? Maybe this is the new normal and delayed winters will be something we should expect more and more in the future ?
Click to expand...

I think it's playing a role, and the warming climate skews the probability distribution frequency towards warmer temperatures, by how much it's rather uncertain.
Here is a temperature anomaly difference animation for ONDJF during the post 1997-98 super NINO era against the 1950-1995 base period showcasing the recent climate trend across the US. Overall most of the US has warmed in every month (minus a couple exceptions) and Decembers have apparently warmed the fastest here in the eastern US relative to the rest of the ONDJF period and the US...
output_3ek4Te.gif fr
 
Looks like we cool back off around 11/11 or so? Definitely doesn't look all that warm to me after this week compared to normal. *Shrugs* We shall see! I like what I see though! It'll get me in the holiday spirit as I decorate quite early in November(inside the house anyways!)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top