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Pattern November Knock-Out

We had nothing going for us last year. At least we got cold and snow building up in Canada this year. It only takes one good storm to make a good season.


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Actually, correct me if I'm wrong, but cold built up in NW Canada last year as well... and gave the Western US a pretty good first half Winter. Then the whole Continent went warm after that.
 
This morning's EPS run is warmer than yesterday's 12z during the 2nd week of November, temperatures solidly above normal over the southeastern US thru mid month but there's some volatility especially the further north you go.
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November 500 hpa pattern preceding the top 10 coldest vs warmest southeastern US Decembers...
Top 10 coldest vs warmest Decembers november z500.png

Take home message: Colder Decembers in the SE US are often preceded by -NAO stints in November.

Unfortunately, this year is showing little-no sign of that as the EPS weeklies depicted wall-to-wall +NAO for November. Now this doesnt necessarily mean that not having a -NAO in November automatically means December will be warm or vis versa, but it's a large-scale signal that's prevalent in a majority of Decembers during the preceding November and is something worth considering
 
I can’t wait for just one more cooler anything before global warming takes over and there is just no chance of having a cooler month.
 
ATLwxfan said:
These models have been wrong before and will be wrong again.

Predicted temps next week have inched downward.


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The predicted temps ticked down one run yesterday and they've increased yet again. I don't expect the models to bust so hard that we see temps turn way below normal by mid month and the strong agreement amongst them and support from the large scale seasonal pattern only lends more confidence to their solution
 
Mr. Golf said:
Webber, I know u said December would be our best chance to get cold or At least seasonal. With that said, since we will apparently have +nao, are we thinking down the lines of maybe Jan or Feb now?
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February by far is the most likely to observe a +NAO but it may occur in all 3 months. I anticipate more volatility and a less predominant positive regime this year vs last winter because the far North Atlantic is warmer, the QBO is easterly (favoring more MJO activity), & this NIÑA may remain east based (although that's highly uncertain), which will aid in reinforcing a low frequency pattern that's less conducive to a strong Icelandic Vortex however we will have to fight against an unfavorable interannual-interdecadal bgd state, persistence, etc... I would lean neutral to positive if anything but probably not as positive as last winter given the aforementioned reasons
 
Greetings from the mountains !!! Look what I found. I bring hope as we roll into a new month
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Did Kory hack Webbers account?? All I hear is : blah, blah, warm, blah blah, torch....models coming in warmer, which I really don't get, unless we're talking about a winter storm?? What's the difference between 75-80 degrees, really? As long as it's in Nov and not Jan/Feb :)
 
Tarheel1 said:
Did Kory hack Webbers account?? All I hear is : blah, blah, warm, blah blah, torch....models coming in warmer, which I really don't get, unless we're talking about a winter storm?? What's the difference between 75-80 degrees, really? As long as it's in Nov and not Jan/Feb :)
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Some were trying to allude/hint to the potential for temps to go below normal in this time frame and assumed the one run cooling trend was going to continue hence we aren't talking about just a 5 degree difference here lol, perhaps as much as 15 degrees or so had that trend continued in earnest. No Kori didn't hack my account and to be frank I don't care if you or anyone else doesn't like what I have to say about the forthcoming pattern, im not going to sit here and lie to you and gush over every single thing that supports cold and snow because that's not unbiased forecasting, that's unhinged wishcasting (which unfortunately JB et al are all too familiar with). If this means every one of my posts here are about mild weather and/or a blowtorch for the next several weeks so be it, I'd rather be right and/or actually gain forecasting experience in doing so than whoefully disappointed for no apparent reason
 
Webberweather53 said:
Some were trying to allude/hint to the potential for temps to go below normal in this time frame and assumed the one run cooling trend was going to continue hence we aren't talking about just a 5 degree difference here lol, perhaps as much as 15 degrees or so had that trend continued in earnest. No Kori didn't hack my account and to be frank I don't care if you or anyone else doesn't like what I have to say about the forthcoming pattern, im not going to sit here and lie to you and gush over every single thing that supports cold and snow because that's not unbiased forecasting, that's unhinged wishcasting (which unfortunately JB et al are all too familiar with). If this means every one of my posts here are about mild weather and/or a blowtorch for the next several weeks so be it, I'd rather be right and/or actually gain forecasting experience in doing so than whoefully disappointed for no apparent reason
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I agree 100% with what I bolded of yours above. That's why it was refreshing to see both JB mention the warm 2005-6 analog as well as Larry Cosgrove going quite warm and pretty snowless for this winter.

To clarify: it was a 2 run EPS cooling trend yesterday from warmer than normal to near normal that I mentioned yesterday and that you acknowledged.

Fwiw, today's 12Z Euro op run has the SE colder than normal 11/9-10 thanks to a 1038 mb NW Canada high that moves down into the Midwest though it just looks like a shortterm cooldown...again fwiw though I'll note that the 0Z Euro had a 1050 mb high doing something similar.
 
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Torch, warm, cool, cold coming?
These, which are in our Wiki, are always worth at least a look ... model run to model run, member by member ...
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_0z/tloop.html
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_6z/tloop.html
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_12z/tloop.html
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_12z/t7loop.html
Not suggesting how anyone else does their thing, but might I suggest that looking at individual members, over time, can depict a trend before the full model catches it ... just offering one Curmudgeon's thoughts ... :confused:
 
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Webberweather53 said:
The EPS can't make up it's mind lol now it's colder again thru day 8-9
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The difference between the 12Z GEFS and the colder 12Z EPS days 9-11 is largely a NW Canadian/Arctic high that the Euro/EPS bring down into the Midwest/Plains (with sub -20C 850s getting to far southern Canada) but which the GFS/GEFS keeps in Canada. Which is right? Any guesses? In between? This is unusual because more often than not the GEFS is colder.
 
tennessee storm said:
Can't believe folks think we're headed toward a snowy winter .... Lol come on now....
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Why can't you believe it? For every winter some folks think we're headed toward snowy and I expect that will never change. Besides folks with snow bias and it being fun for some to predict lots of snow, there's more uncertainty with SE snow than with temperatures since it only takes one big one. Be careful what you say because this kind of post can come back to bite you though I'm assuming you'd be more than happy to be bit in this case!
 
GaWx said:
Why can't you believe it? For every winter some folks think we're headed toward snowy and I expect that will never change. Besides folks with snow bias and it being fun for some to predict lots of snow, there's more uncertainty with SE snow than with temperatures since it only takes one big one. Be careful what you say because this kind of post can come back to bite you though I'm assuming you'd be more than happy to be bit in this case!
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That would be one bite that would "Hurt so good" :)
 
GaWx said:
Why can't you believe it? For every winter some folks think we're headed toward snowy and I expect that will never change. Besides folks with snow bias and it being fun for some to predict lots of snow, there's more uncertainty with SE snow than with temperatures since it only takes one big one. Be careful what you say because this kind of post can come back to bite you though I'm assuming you'd be more than happy to be bit in this case!
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Yeah, you never know what the weather in the Southeast can bring. You can be primed for a good snow and get zip or a great year, or you could have a bad outlook and get the same thing. As you said, one good storm can do it. Only things in looking for is a cold Christmas and cooler than last year winter.
 
That's one thing to remember, especially outside of the northern parts of the southeast. You can be very warm all winter but it takes just one storm to get to or eclipse average.
 
GaWx said:
Why can't you believe it? For every winter some folks think we're headed toward snowy and I expect that will never change. Besides folks with snow bias and it being fun for some to predict lots of snow, there's more uncertainty with SE snow than with temperatures since it only takes one big one. Be careful what you say because this kind of post can come back to bite you though I'm assuming you'd be more than happy to be bit in this case!
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Im glad to mention, it only takes one big one. It really does, one big winterstorm would put most if not all southeast above snowfall avg LOL!! One thing about having these early November warmth is when you start getting cold meeting these juiced up low riders lows, than watch out. The gulf being so warm still produces mounts of moisture .
 
GaWx said:
The difference between the 12Z GEFS and the colder 12Z EPS days 9-11 is largely a NW Canadian/Arctic high that the Euro/EPS bring down into the Midwest/Plains (with sub -20C 850s getting to far southern Canada) but which the GFS/GEFS keeps in Canada. Which is right? Any guesses? In between? This is unusual because more often than not the GEFS is colder.
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I honestly do not know for sure for the life of me, I'd side w/ the EPS on a planetary scale because of its higher skill scores and I suspect it may be onto something with a punctuated shortwave eroding the northern edge of this ridge.. It's pretty hard to maintain a circumpolar ridge from the US Rockies to Scandinavia and not have at least one or two decent troughs somewhere in between unlike what the GFS ensemble is currently advertising...
gefs_z500a_nh_41.png
 
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I swear I wonder what some of these NE US weenies are smoking...
In what universe is this below or even well below normal in the NE US & that's not including October which was warm af
Lmao
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Like Webber said, I think with -EQBO which should allow more mjo influence that we have periods of real cold come down and like always, comes down to timing. Also, if niña weakens some, we be OK I think
 
Mr. Golf said:
Like Webber said, I think with -EQBO which should allow more mjo influence that we have periods of real cold come down and like always, comes down to timing. Also, if niña weakens some, we be OK I think
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for everything i have studied n read on this nina... appears peeks in late january...like webber lso said. i like the chances for severe later in the winter for midsouth tn valley region....
 
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