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Pattern November Knock-Out

olhausen said:
I’m really not understanding all the negativity about how warm it’s going to be. This year feels nothing like last year as we’ve already had multiple cold fronts that have dropped temps well below normal for a number of days. Today will be the second day in a row where my temp doesn’t get above 45 degrees. My average high is 66 and I’ve had plenty of days that were below that when the avg high was even higher. Heck I remember the cold front that came in during September and I barely got to 60 for a high. We live in the south and so we are going to have big swings from hot to cold and from cold to hot. I think we are all overacting to every warm front the models show because of how bad it was last winter.
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FWIW; If I remember correctly, November 1987 (the season that eventually lead to the January 1988 snow storm) was very warm first half of the month (at least it was in Nashville)
 
Is it even possible ... :eek:

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We locked into a warmer pattern until further notice. Trough west ridge east :(. If it lasts through most of winter, cliff diving will begin in earnest sooner than later
 
Hah I don't think we're flipping back to a trough-y pattern but I do feel like we're going to have cold fronts...we always do during this time of the year.
 
Well I do at least hope the warm up is not as warm as advertised, I'd take 70-75 but 80? Meh.

Don't have a problem with the flip flop pattern right now though.
 
Of course I don't think it'll play out as advertised as it's lala land, but the cold front in the models is what happens in transitional months. Flip flopping. I think November is more transitional than October is.
 
olhausen said:
I’m really not understanding all the negativity about how warm it’s going to be. This year feels nothing like last year as we’ve already had multiple cold fronts that have dropped temps well below normal for a number of days. Today will be the second day in a row where my temp doesn’t get above 45 degrees. My average high is 66 and I’ve had plenty of days that were below that when the avg high was even higher. Heck I remember the cold front that came in during September and I barely got to 60 for a high. We live in the south and so we are going to have big swings from hot to cold and from cold to hot. I think we are all overacting to every warm front the models show because of how bad it was last winter.
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Thank goodness I am not the only one.... I really have never understood why folks get so emotional over these things..lmao. It's weather...it's going to do what it wants, when it wants and could careless how we feel about it. Why anyone gets bent out of shape or starts stressing/getting frustrated is ridiculous to say the least. I am one that just goes with the flow... you can't live and die by each run, forecast or extended outlook. That's just absurd.

Enjoy it. It's the only weather we got!
 
I’m with you guys on the early cliff diving while the tide is still out. I enjoy the silly cliches and making a mockery of the emotional investment some make in the weather. I also enjoy taking heat for my premature sled purchase. Which reminds me... the end of the 18z GFS has got me in the mood.


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I'm starting to notice that the various GEFS means aren't as warm as they were in the SE US a couple of days ago for 11/8+...fwiw. They are actually fairly close to seasonable. But the generally more accurate EPS runs remain warmer than the GEFS and above normal.
 
GaWx said:
I'm starting to notice that the various GEFS means aren't as warm as they were in the SE US a couple of days ago for 11/8+...fwiw. They are actually fairly close to seasonable.
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And I'd happily take that. It's always a marathon, not a sprint.
 
Mr. Golf said:
Wxrisk has his preliminary winter outlook on FB now :rolleyes:
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Ugh lol he's certainly free to believe what he wants but a few issues I'll just broad brush over...
A) La Nina or any ENSO event for that matter doesnt just magically end, even if the ocean component is lost entirely in a month from now (unlikely), the atmosphere will still resemble a NINA through at least the entirety of Jan and/or Feb

B) What in the world would lead anyone to believe or bank on December being the warmest winter month in the eastern US w/ -ENSO forcing?

C) Background AGW confirmed by recent observations and the proxy record, inter annual variability, and general circulation changes induced by alterations in the local Atlantic THC support positive regime this winter even though it may not be as positive as last year w/ easterly QBO coupled w/ higher than normal MJO variance as well as a warmer far North Atlantic
 
Webberweather53 said:
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Ugh lol he's certainly free to believe what he wants but a few issues I'll just broad brush over...
A) La Nina or any ENSO event for that matter doesnt just magically end, even if the ocean component is lost entirely in a month from now (unlikely), the atmosphere will still resemble a NINA through at least the entirety of Jan and/or Feb

B) What in the world would lead anyone to believe or bank on December being the warmest winter month in the eastern US w/ -ENSO forcing?

C) Background AGW confirmed by recent observations and the proxy record, inter annual variability, and general circulation changes induced by alterations in the local Atlantic THC support positive regime this winter even though it may not be as positive as last year w/ easterly QBO coupled w/ higher than normal MJO variance as well as a warmer far North Atlantic
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I've had some Atlantic THC before. It's nowhere near as good as California THC tho...
 
EPS/CFS hinting at the potential for temperature anomalies to reach/exceed 5C in the SE US in/around the 2nd week of November. For many that means highs in the 70s & 80s, perhaps record breaking warmth... Again.
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ForsythSnow said:
There's some good to that. Get bitter cold up in Canada, build up the snowpack there. The Euro puts down a good amount of snow up there and in the Upper Plains too.
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Yeah I noticed it gets colder the closer we get to that time frame in Canada as well.
 
GaStorm said:
Yeah I noticed it gets colder the closer we get to that time frame in Canada as well.
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when all that cold air builds, eventually it has to release its mother load southward right? I seen it happen many times as where Canada builds bitter cold, southeast stays warm until that cold starts slowing moving southeast. It may take a while but it eventually gets here in some intense way
 
accu35 said:
when all that cold air builds, eventually it has to release its mother load southward right? I seen it happen many times as where Canada builds bitter cold, southeast stays warm until that cold starts slowing moving southeast. It may take a while but it eventually gets here in some intense way
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Yep. I'm hoping the extreme cold in winter will bleed down into our area at some point. Could be an interesting scenario if there is a good snow pack to our north as well.
 
Interestingly, despite all of this warm Nov talk, the last two EPS runs each came in colder than the prior ones and now both the 12Z EPS and the 12Z GEFS are near normal in the SE US starting 11/9 and continuing through 11/12. For 11/13-14, the 12Z EPS maintains near normal while the 12Z GEFS goes slightly colder than normal 11/13-15. All of this implies that any torch may last only one week.
 
GaWx said:
Interestingly, despite all of this warm Nov talk, the last two EPS runs each came in colder than the prior ones and now both the 12Z EPS and the 12Z GEFS are near normal in the SE US starting 11/9 and continuing through 11/12. For 11/13-14, the 12Z EPS maintains near normal while the 12Z GEFS goes slightly colder than normal 11/13-15. All of this implies that any torch may last only one week.
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Yep but even still we are going to have to erase a very substantial deficit, we will need temps to average significantly below normal ~2-3C for the last half of the month to just get back to or slightly below 0 and that's asking a lot in this kind of climate but doable when there is predominantly -ENSO forcing
 
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ForsythSnow said:
There's some good to that. Get bitter cold up in Canada, build up the snowpack there. The Euro puts down a good amount of snow up there and in the Upper Plains too.
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Yeah it's definitely helping to set us up for an early winter Cp airmass barrage that often occurs in NIÑA or cool biased neutral winters in/around December and sometimes this lingers into January. I'm all for it, would be great to have a BN December for once, haven't seen that since 2010 then again many of us received a rare white Christmas so this is probably the price we had to pay for it (coupled w/ warmer climate too)
 
A snowpack is better than no snowpack, iirc there was no/very limited snowpack due to how warm it was over North America early last winter.
 
If I remember correctly, 2010-2011 was with a strong La Nina and it's one of the best winters in recent memory. I feel like I remember all of the projections that year were for a warm entirety of the winter...needless to say, all of those projections were wrong. (February may have been warm. I don't remember as my long term memory is very bad.)

Of course the difference here is we're talking about a weak La Nina.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
If I remember correctly, 2010-2011 was with a strong La Nina and it's one of the best winters in recent memory. I feel like I remember all of the projections that year were for a warm entirety of the winter...needless to say, all of those projections were wrong. (February may have been warm. I don't remember as my long term memory is very bad.)

Of course the difference here is we're talking about a weak La Nina.
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Started out very, very cold in Dec and ended up real warm in Feb ... pollen was a bear that year ... but we pay the price, I 'spose ...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah it's definitely helping to set us up for an early winter Cp airmass barrage that often occurs in NIÑA or cool biased neutral winters in/around December and sometimes this lingers into January. I'm all for it, would be great to have a BN December for once, haven't seen that since 2010 then again many of us received a rare white Christmas so this is probably the price we had to pay for it (coupled w/ warmer climate too)
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Do you think the warming climate is one reason why it's so incredibly tough to get a cold December lately ? 6 straight insanely warm Decembers in a row can't be just a coincidence can it ? Maybe this is the new normal and delayed winters will be something we should expect more and more in the future ?
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
If I remember correctly, 2010-2011 was with a strong La Nina and it's one of the best winters in recent memory. I feel like I remember all of the projections that year were for a warm entirety of the winter...needless to say, all of those projections were wrong. (February may have been warm. I don't remember as my long term memory is very bad.)

Of course the difference here is we're talking about a weak La Nina.
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The one, very large glaring discrepancy most often forget and/or overlook is the huge Icelandic volcanic eruption that went off earlier that year which impacted the high-latitude radiative balance and in concert with the continued, unusually low solar activity and very robust +AMO regime that lingered after the 2009-10 NINO helped bring about the unusual pattern that was observed... While this winter is entering into a regime with relatively low solar activity, the AMO is nowhere close to where it was near the beginning of 2010-11, and we currently have no major high-latitude volcanic eruptions to speak of to greatly disrupt the radiative balance of the extratropical stratosphere and perhaps entice blocking...
 
Could be 90 here Thursday Dallas has NEVER hit 90 in November before...

The 34 Saturday morning was the coldest in October since 1993 lol
 
I guess the plus side to really warm weather in the cold months is when an arctic front comes through and there's a 30 degree temperature difference by about 30 miles lol
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Do you think the warming climate is one reason why it's so incredibly tough to get a cold December lately ? 6 straight insanely warm Decembers in a row can't be just a coincidence can it ? Maybe this is the new normal and delayed winters will be something we should expect more and more in the future ?
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I think it's playing a role, and the warming climate skews the probability distribution frequency towards warmer temperatures, by how much it's rather uncertain.
Here is a temperature anomaly difference animation for ONDJF during the post 1997-98 super NINO era against the 1950-1995 base period showcasing the recent climate trend across the US. Overall most of the US has warmed in every month (minus a couple exceptions) and Decembers have apparently warmed the fastest here in the eastern US relative to the rest of the ONDJF period and the US...
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Looks like we cool back off around 11/11 or so? Definitely doesn't look all that warm to me after this week compared to normal. *Shrugs* We shall see! I like what I see though! It'll get me in the holiday spirit as I decorate quite early in November(inside the house anyways!)
 
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