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Pattern November Knock-Out

Webberweather53 said:
I can buy that although it may be volatile but warm overall seems reasonable. Looks like a ridge in the North Pacific will begin to retrograde westward as usual thanks to planetary vorticity advection, thus, we should see the trough over the eastern US back westward towards the Rockies and allow the SE US ridge to flex its muscles about 1-2 weeks from now
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Yay. Maybe it can retrograde to Greenland by winter

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SD said:
Yay. Maybe it can retrograde to Greenland by winter

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Haha that almost certainly won't happen unfortunately... It'll retrograde and dissipate over eastern Siberia and Northern Eurasia, helping to dump cold there and over the Rockies instead of the eastern US... Need a legitimate east Atlantic anticyclonic wave break or one over Scandinavia to give us some help because this low frequency pattern (NINA esque) isn't conducive atm
 
Webberweather53 said:
Haha that almost certainly won't happen unfortunately... It'll retrograde and dissipate over eastern Siberia and Northern Eurasia, helping to dump cold there and over the Rockies instead of the eastern US... Need a legitimate east Atlantic anticyclonic wave break or one over Scandinavia to give us some help because this low frequency pattern (NINA esque) isn't conducive atm
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Honesty is always the best policy ...
Thanks, Webb!
;)
 
I'll be honest I'm not sure I wouldn't this look all winter.
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EPS front 10 days of November look warm atm... The temperature distribution across the US is potentially setting us up for an active-very active storm track across the Plains, OH/MS river Valleys and Great Lakes with cold/snow to the NW over southern Canada, North-central Rockies, as well as the Upper Midwest, and potentially severe weather further south & east in/around our neck of the woods... Nothing short of what you'd anticipate in a La Nina
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SD said:
I'll be honest I'm not sure I wouldn't this look all winter.
6814525a7edda65ddd98de231a1d267a.jpg


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To me (and please don't take me wrong) ... that seems lke like going into a casino with $500 you're willing to lose, and coming out several hours later with $175 and somehow feeling like you "won" ... o_O
 
Today we talk about " Warmish" November or first half, tomorrow we talk about a cold November. This has been the problem for years now, anything in the long range is a piss in the bucket. Im enjoying what we have now, if we do have a warm November for moat part then maybe December will be rockin with cold and winterstorms. Let all that cold air build up, only to release the pressure south.
 
MRStorm said:
People say you can't always get the real meaning from just reading what someone has typed via email, posts. etc. But I can certainly tell on this Forum who the "Glass Half Empty" and "Glass Half Full", people are. Some folks just never have anything positive or hopeful to say. Some will say they are just being realistic, but can anyone really be sure about the upcoming Winter? Just sayin'.
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The posters I respect the most for their opinions/predictions/feelings are those who are objective based on supporting data/facts rather than those who tend to be either overly positive or overly negative with no supporting facts. After all, this is a science based forum. Those who have a good mix over the years of being positive sometimes and of being negative sometimes are going to get my attention way before anyone else as far as seasonal predictions are concerned.

Similar to this are posts at political forums. The posts I have the most interest in reading are those who are at least somewhat unpredictable (including many independents/moderates/swing voters) rather than those who almost always support one party or the other (party hacks).

Back to weather: There's nothing wrong with being hopeful. It feels good and is normal to be hopeful. But what's not good imo is to make outright predictions based exclusively on either hope or pessimism and without supporting data/facts to back that hope or pessimism.

Of course, nobody can ever be sure of the upcoming winter as regards it being positive or negative. That's why people make "predictions" as opposed to being able to read a crystal ball.
 
GaWx said:
The posters I respect the most for their opinions/predictions/feelings are those who are objective based on supporting data/facts rather than those who tend to be either overly positive or overly negative with no supporting facts. After all, this is a science based forum. Those who have a good mix over the years of being positive sometimes and of being negative sometimes are going to get my attention way before anyone else as far as seasonal predictions are concerned.

Similar to this are posts at political forums. The posts I have the most interest in reading are those who are at least somewhat unpredictable (including many independents/moderates/swing voters) rather than those who almost always support one party or the other (party hacks).

Back to weather: There's nothing wrong with being hopeful. It feels good and is normal to be hopeful. But what's not good imo is to make outright predictions based exclusively on either hope or pessimism and without supporting data/facts to back that hope or pessimism.

Of course, nobody can ever be sure of the upcoming winter as regards it being positive or negative. That's why people make "predictions" as opposed to being able to read a crystal ball.
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Larry,
You need a side job as a brief writer?
Best,
Phil
 
Webberweather53 said:
EPS front 10 days of November look warm atm... The temperature distribution across the US is potentially setting us up for an active-very active storm track across the Plains, OH/MS river Valleys and Great Lakes with cold/snow to the NW over southern Canada, North-central Rockies, as well as the Upper Midwest, and potentially severe weather further south & east in/around our neck of the woods... Nothing short of what you'd anticipate in a La Nina
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Webber, I was just wondering is this the type of pattern advertised on eps that will happen alot this winter, leave the south and se out of the cold air and snow/ice? If so, then how will we even have a chance to see some winter excitement? Just thinking of realistic possibilities before winter actually starts.
 
Mr. Golf said:
Webber, I was just wondering is this the type of pattern advertised on eps that will happen alot this winter, leave the south and se out of the cold air and snow/ice? If so, then how will we even have a chance to see some winter excitement? Just thinking of realistic possibilities before winter actually starts.
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at least we can get on some nice severe weather events ... novemeber seems to be the peak of fall severe weather....least it looks active kevin...
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Sadly, I have to agree..... As a wise man once told me, "hope is not a good strategy"
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Have to disagree. That wasn't a once in a thousand year set up! All it takes is one good banana high, and a weak gulf low! I was reading on it awhile back, I think the surface low was 1018 mb, or close to it. We may not see it again in our lifetime , but chances are we see something like it, before we see another superstorm '93
 
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