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Pattern November 2023

Brent said:
I guess we are having fall this year ?

November snow last year did us no good for the winter so I'm fine with waiting

I get people are tired of warmth but like it's not like warmth now is like summer either...

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IDK I think 80 is at least 15 degrees too warm for this time of year. IAD average is 63/40
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
This was Nov 1995 before that big winter. Not sure if that was an El Nino but it was wet and cold.
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Oddly enough that was a weak La Niña, and it was definitely not a normal one. December was slightly below average, but did get mild a few days after Christmas into the first couple days of the January. Then of course there was the big storm of 1/6-1/8 followed by a few days of very cold temperatures then another significant storm on 1/11-1/12… after that things got mostly mild with some quick in and out cold snaps for the rest of the month followed of course by the huge ice/sleet storm across the southeast and the Arctic blast that followed it. I think the western and central Carolinas had another smaller snow event around mid February.
 
Billypg70 said:
The only winters I remember being wall to wall cold,
Was in the 70's.
77/78 was bitter.
75/76 seems was very cold also.
Along with 79/80.
As for the warmistas,
I was once in the as cold as possible for as long as possible camp.
I've crossed over to the other side.
The older you get the cold affects you much more than the heat does.
Also it just seems that extreme cold damages much more than extreme heat.
Pipes bursting !
Plus I've gotten extremely cheap in my old age.
Warm saves a ton on the natural gas bill.
Doesn't mean I don't want cold or winter weather.
I'll take some 10° nights or colder with plenty of snow storms but after a few at most,
Enough bugs and snakes should be dead to move on to moderate winter conditions.
I'm ready to be in the 60 to 70 for highs and 30-45 for lows.
Good sleeping weather and easy on the bills.
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76-77 was alot more cold than 77-78 but all of them were legendary. Trust me, this forum would have more action than Bill Clinton ?? if we ever get anything remotely similar. Just saying. Lots of drawer changing lol
 
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Billypg70 said:
The only winters I remember being wall to wall cold,
Was in the 70's.
77/78 was bitter.
75/76 seems was very cold also.
Along with 79/80.
As for the warmistas,
I was once in the as cold as possible for as long as possible camp.
I've crossed over to the other side.
The older you get the cold affects you much more than the heat does.
Also it just seems that extreme cold damages much more than extreme heat.
Pipes bursting !
Plus I've gotten extremely cheap in my old age.
Warm saves a ton on the natural gas bill.
Doesn't mean I don't want cold or winter weather.
I'll take some 10° nights or colder with plenty of snow storms but after a few at most,
Enough bugs and snakes should be dead to move on to moderate winter conditions.
I'm ready to be in the 60 to 70 for highs and 30-45 for lows.
Good sleeping weather and easy on the bills.
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LOL I'm the opposite. The heat really gets to me now. Also very boring to track heat.
 
Itryatgolf said:
76-77 was alot more cold than 77-78 but all of them were legendary. Trust me, this forum would have more action than Bill Clinton ?? if we ever get anything remotely similar. Just saying. Lots of drawer changing lol
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I don't remember the years exactly so I may of been a year off,
I just know 70-80 had some wall to wall cold and 5 good winter storms wasn't that uncommon at that time.
Also their wasn't an East Coast vs West Coast type of Troughing or setup back then.
I distinctly remember west to east coast cold.
Sure their was a pockets of warmth here or their in Southern Cali, Arizona, Texas, & Florida but that was it.
I know I've seen Rain Cold comment of this in some of my past posts.
So I'm not the only one that remembers these winters.
I distinctly remember either 77 or 78 Miami reporting snow flurries for the only time in the existence of their weather stations down their from the time record keeping began through today.
The 80's were pretty good for winter weather also.
I hear that the 60's were too.
I'm just not old enough to remember that,
I can tell you,
That we seem to not have True Miller A's like we used to have prior to 90 that would snow Dallas to ATL to the Carolinas from I-20 to I-40.
It used to be an almost certainty that if Dallas got snow places East from ATL north to at least I40 was guaranteed a good snowstorm.
I miss those so much.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
That's why I prefer 95/96. Got early dismissal from school in early Nov for sleet and then had low 20s in late April. In b/w had ups and downs of course but saw significant cold each month with multiple winter events. That winter is my gold standard.
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Anything below 20 is too cold under any circumstances. 32 will get you are good snowstorm if other things are right for it.
 
Already down to 43 here. If the winds had been as calm yesterday evening as what we’re seeing tonight, there would have been widespread lows near 20 and probably some upper teens in the NC Piedmont this morning. Dewpoints last night were in the 11-16F range across the region then. Tonight they’ve bumped back up to the 25-29f range. This really was a very impressive airmass for early November when you consider the source regions in NW Canada and northern Alaska haven’t really built up anything overly impressive yet in terms of home grown cold air.
 
Brent said:
I guess we are having fall this year ?

November snow last year did us no good for the winter so I'm fine with waiting

I get people are tired of warmth but like it's not like warmth now is like summer either...
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Yep, the silver lining with next week is at least it's too late for it to be hot, but still I'd rather it be in the low 70's instead of what we're going to see.
 
JHS said:
This November may be cold but certainly not wet. No rain in sight on the GFS. The drought map just keeps getting more colorful.
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Both the GEFS and the EPS the last couple days are really starting to pick up the activity of the STJ as we go into the 11-15th timeframe. The GEFS has a widespread 1.5-2” precipitation mean by the 18th. The timing on this follows right in line when we typically start seeing moisture dramatically increase during a moderate to strong El Niño.
 
Chazwin said:
Both the GEFS and the EPS the last couple days are really starting to pick up the activity of the STJ as we go into the 11-15th timeframe. The GEFS has a widespread 1.5-2” precipitation mean by the 18th. The timing on this follows right in line when we typically start seeing moisture dramatically increase during a moderate to strong El Niño.
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Hopefully the ops will start indicating it also
 
EmersonGA said:
If by Atlanta you mean the square mile around the airport. Literally everywhere else around there had one last night.
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Don't even get me started about this crock of ----. I have had 3 nights this spell at 30 or lower, currently I have 28. The Airport has 39. The “official” temp for Atlanta is hideously misleading.
 

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NoSnowATL said:
We hear about the 09/10 winter so much, if you go back and look that fall started warm until mid December.
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Can’t speak for our entire region obviously, but for Atlanta October this year for example was WAY WARMER overall than October 2009 was. There were 9 days in the 80s compared to 2 80+ degree days in 2009. Another significant difference is precipitation also. October 2009 was extremely wet (8.71 inches). There was only 1.78 inches recorded last month at the airport. It’s too early to say how November/December will turn out on temps/precip, but with the possibility of low 80s returning again next week I can say if it happens November 2023 will be warmer than November 2009 was. The warmest day was 74 that month/year. Personally, I feel like this El Niño has been off to a slower start compared to 2009/10 mainly on the precipitation. The temperatures don’t matter that much at this point, it’s fall not winter yet. The switch can wait to flip on winter temps post December 20th as far as I’m concerned.

October 2009
October 2023
 
NC guys need to look at the 12z GFS. It has snow, at least briefly, over much of the area west of I-77 at 240.
 
JHS said:
NC guys need to look at the 12z GFS. It has snow, at least briefly, over much of the area west of I-77 at 240.
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Yeah actually it shows snow from about Highland County VA south into NC.
 
MB22 said:
Yeah actually it shows snow from about Highland County VA south into NC.
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0 pattern support unfortunately, it’ll be gone next run
 
Chazwin said:
There is literally zero support for it. The GEFS mean has temperatures well into the 60s that day.
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Yeah, it is not happening of course. I just thought it was interesting. A month later it might have had a chance. I just hope the rain it shows is right.
 
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