Not really wasting it. Outside of our local region that benefitted from ophelia and Idalia is been dry across the region since 8/15. For some folks farther SW in the region they are going to need a big DJF to reverse growing negative anomalies and not start the 2024 growing season still behind
Well just to go ahead and set expectations it would be in no way surprising to me if we were sitting at 0 or T 75-90 days from today
Very unlikely to happen, but still interesting to look at. Especially interesting because this comes from a west Caribbean hurricane that transitions to a nor’easter.NE gonna freak
If we block December we could get in on something think ice or frozen to rain is more likely versus a pure snow event. If we don't block which I'm leaning towards it's not going to be great for snow
As normal, I'm going to start really looking at the models at/after Thanksgiving. Our prime time to be able to get big storms tends to be the first week of December to the first week of March. Of course, the better chances start in early January into late February. But we've had some big winter storms in the first half of December.
We don’t usually see a strong El Niño develop much blocking in December. The one thing I’m finding interesting is that I came across an article last week that I wish I had saved, but it’s indicating that the El Niño may be moving west and is not entirely east based. I’m honestly sure what effect that could have on December. I’m still think that December is going to be above average, but things could start to turn a little quicker than what we saw in 2015-16.
The problem is it would be with light rain. Hopefully it won't materialize or be over with by the evening (for trick-or-treaters).
That's unusually dry but I'm not surprised or worried, yet. The first week or two in November looks dry for the southeast. This appears to indicate the rains return during the second half of the month, which is fine with me. I'm going to enjoy this gorgeous weather for weeks!
Plenty of time to enjoy those outdoor activities unmolested by mother nature.
That's what people said when the dust bowl started.
