Pattern November 2023

[Billypg70]

Drought breeds drought. Its real.

Isn't it amazing that the last 2 years of LA Nina acted much like an EL Nino & appears that at least the beginning of this EL Nino is doing the same.
It was so wet imby the last 2 years up till mid May.
Mby was like walking on a wet sponge the vast majority of that timeframe.
Since mid June mby has been like concrete.
Just goes to show there's many drivers to sensible weather...
We need rain...
Good news is we are done with the driest months of the year.
Sept & Oct.
????

 

[weatherfide]

Isn't it amazing that the last 2 years of LA Nina acted much like an EL Nino & appears that at least the beginning of this EL Nino is doing the same.
It was so wet imby the last 2 years up till mid May.
Mby was like walking on a wet sponge the vast majority of that timeframe.
Since mid June mby has been like concrete.
Just goes to show there's many drivers to sensible weather...
We need rain...
Good news is we are done with the driest months of the year.
Sept & Oct.
????

Long range ensembles support more precipitation toward mid-month.

 

[Itryatgolf]

Long range ensembles support more precipitation toward mid-month.

It's all about pattern recognition and we are supposedly in el niño but acting like la niña currently or maybe even both at same time?

 

[JHS]

Slight chance of rain going into next week, dry as a bone before and after. South GA/AL may see little to no rain from this.


View attachment 137691

It is gone on the 12z GFS.

 

[tractor girl]

It is gone on the 12z GFS.

Yep, just a wiff.

Fantasy land has this though, which is a lot more than we've seen hinted at in the last few months:

 

[SD]

You can see the STJ really starting to ramp up on the models. The thing that hurts is we keep dropping these big EC troughs with pwats like 10% of normal then going into blocking SERs forcing the best dynamics west and north. It's hard to win in that cycle regardless of enso state

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Pacific jet going into overdrive next week, and looks strong/zonal. I’d bet on some sort of rain and some sort of higher impact weather system (severe ?) for the SE.

 

[HugeSnowStick]

KPDK 09:53 GMT
35° F Light Snow
Wind Chill:	26° F
Dew Point:	21° F
Humidity:	56%
Pressure:	1023 mb
Wind:	NNW 13 mph
Visibility:	9 miles

 

[LukeBarrette]

First flurries of the season!

 

[EmersonGA]

Looks like 31.3 for the low here.

 

[BullCityWx]

First flurries of the season!

Tech airport had flurries too looks like

 

[NoSnowATL]

New run same result. Still looks dry going into Thanksgiving.

 

[WSW]

Still in the teens in parts of WV, VA, NC,TN this morning. Bring it on!

 

[cyclogent]

low of 30.6 imby, first freeze of the season.

 

[D-Ray]

29 this morning

 

[NWMSGuy]

Starting to wonder if someone will see Severe Weather the week of the 12th?

 

[Chazwin]

New run same result. Still looks dry going into Thanksgiving.

I think this will start to switch around some in further runs. Both the GEFS and EPS really start to get the Pacific jet going by the end of next week and the GEFS is showing some pretty good widespread precipitation means by the end of its run for the entire southeast.

 

[Itryatgolf]

25 here in the jackson area earlier. Euro was off by 5 degrees so gfs was more correct this time. Actually, it was 24 degrees here

 

[SD]

Overnight eps shows a transition into a very nino like pattern by D16

 

[BullCityWx]

41 degrees at the hospital helipad at noon.