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Pattern November 2022

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Impressive blocking signature around AK/NW Canada on the D10 Euro. GFS and CMC agree as well. Should be quite the chilly period on tap, with somewhat of a split flow.

ecmwf_z500a_namer_31.png

After that, at least on the 6z GFS op, the pattern retrogrades, but impressive cold air should continue to build up in Canada and across the northern US, if the model has the general pattern correct.

gfs_z500a_namer_65.png.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Se ridge? Looks legit.


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This winter is showing signs that it might be +TNH heavy, while it doesn’t mean it’ll be 100% of the time, imo there’s gonna be a supply of cold air this year like last year and there may be awkward North Pacific blocking which allows the southeast ridge to flex, but then there might be times where the cold makes it to the southeast (this week for example). Also day 10+ is prone to a -NAO. I show +anoms right there for the SE but there might be periods where it gets pretty cold, that average doesn’t mean it’ll be near average the whole time, it means more variable/changing temps but I lean on a little warm since it’s easier to be warmer in the SE
 
Where's Wilkes?
Tomorrow All Models Show this.

prateptype.us_ma.png
 
NCSNOW said:
Where's Wilkes?
Tomorrow All Models Show this.

prateptype.us_ma.png
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Looks like that's at the higher elevations (like Boone). And here's Boone's grid forecast (...a true winter type forecast):

This Afternoon
Mostly sunny, with a high near 40. Southeast wind around 6 mph.
Tonight
A slight chance of snow after 3am, mixing with sleet after 4am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 28. Southeast wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tuesday
Freezing rain and sleet likely before 9am, then rain. High near 34. East wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Tuesday Night
Rain before 5am, then a slight chance of rain and snow. Low around 33. Light and variable wind becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Wednesday
A slight chance of snow showers before 8am, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 38. Northwest wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday Night
A slight chance of snow showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 29.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 18.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 30.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 16.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 32.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 19.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 39.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This winter is showing signs that it might be +TNH heavy, while it doesn’t mean it’ll be 100% of the time, imo there’s gonna be a supply of cold air this year like last year and there may be awkward North Pacific blocking which allows the southeast ridge to flex, but then there might be times where the cold makes it to the southeast (this week for example). Also day 10+ is prone to a -NAO. I show +anoms right there for the SE but there might be periods where it gets pretty cold, that average doesn’t mean it’ll be near average the whole time, it means more variable/changing temps but I lean on a little warm since it’s easier to be warmer in the SE
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Agreed… I’m really starting to see signs that this is just going to be very much an up and down season with regards to temperatures in the southeast. Things will probably still average out to be slightly above when all is said and done… for example November will still be above average after these next 7-10 days. It’s odd because these type of fluctuations in temperatures is more reminiscent of a neutral ENSO… certainly not like a typical LaNina. One thing is for sure… even during the warmer periods, as long as that SE Canada vortex keeps hanging around, there will be plenty of CAD. I know I’ve said this the last number of years, but southern NC Piedmont is way overdue for a major ice storm… this could be the overall pattern that creates it
 
I would rather have a bunch of back and forth than sustained periods of warmth or cold. We can't get anything when it's too warm, and we usually don't get anything but cold and dry when we have bitter cold for a while. I think we do better with legit winter storm threats when the pattern is changing a lot.
 
First map of the year. Possibly some light ZR before it switches over to cold rain in a few areas tomorrow morning/early afternoon. Should mostly stay below 0.05 but there’s a few areas that hang tough in in-situ setups 7204E3ED-24B8-4767-B622-E5413C2C33C7.jpeg
 
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