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Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers

The infamous "PV hook" signature is showing up for wave #1 consistently across most NWP models... only see this in the most intense extratropical cyclones.

Notice the stratospheric air descending into the troposphere in the cold conveyor belt of the extratropical cyclone (south & eastern sides) w/ low-PV air from the tropics & subtropics completely enveloping the cyclone and eventually leading to warm occlusion.

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I like what I’ve seen today, because the ECMWF loves to hold back, which is a bias and could possibly be the culprit of that super amped system (and it phased a couple times) and the gfs loves to be quick/progressive which is probably why it’s so far south 916D27F3-A770-46CD-848E-EFC23A0DC188.gifBE0B8159-0541-46BD-BC51-819FCF2A1B54.png
 
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