Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers

[SD]

The GEFS even had some member that threw some flurries and snow showers into AL, GA, and SC.

I wouldn't be surprised given the setup. These strong cold troughs have a tendency to squeeze out a few flakes

 

[SD]

South trend for the win

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[SD]

Can't wait to see what the gfs does with the energy over the arklatex.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This could get interesting

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Can't wait to see what the gfs does with the energy over the arklatex. View attachment 53677

It comes in faster every run

 

[Avalanche]

Wish that was east of the Apps though, ULL that is.

 

[Round Oak Weather]

I wouldn't be surprised given the setup. These strong cold troughs have a tendency to squeeze out a few flakes

I think most of us would take a snow flake ?

 

[SD]

Wish that was east of the Apps though, ULL that is.

It will be

Not much option on the gfs but for it to plow east

 

[Webberweather53]

It comes in faster every run

Might actually force the southern stream wave in front of it to kick out faster directing the storm track a little further SE.

 

[Avalanche]

It will be

Not much option on the gfs but for it to plow east

Yeah, but that will be Mid-Atlantic and NE right? At least cooler air will follow behind it.

 

[SD]

 

[BufordWX]

Liking this trend.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

GFS has flakes flying all the way down into Auburn Alabama

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

View attachment 53679View attachment 53680

Any La Niña analogs on that? ? ️

 

[EmersonGA]

Liking this trend.View attachment 53681

I figure at worst we should see our first flurries of the year. Might even be some convective nature to it.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This run was pretty Convective with this precip, just to warm, however Other areas got something, which is a W

 

[Webberweather53]

That's it, come to papa. In 1-2 more runs w/ this trend, it's gonna be in NC's wheelhouse.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That's it, come to papa. In 1-2 more runs w/ this trend, it's gonna be in NC's wheelhouse.

View attachment 53684

Warm sector recovery and wedges by tomorrow

 

[Avalanche]

That's it, come to papa. In 1-2 more runs w/ this trend, it's gonna be in NC's wheelhouse.

View attachment 53684

What feature is causing this southern trend? I mean, that is pretty substantial.

 

[Avalanche]

Warm sector recovery and wedges by tomorrow

Ying yang.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Kick you sob

 

[Webberweather53]

Kick you sob

Lol well this doesn't look complicated at all

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Can the sfc temps respond please, that’s a good sounding if you can lower sfc temps

 

[Myfrotho704_]

.... lol

 

[Webberweather53]

What feature is causing this southern trend? I mean, that is pretty substantial.

Looks like the GFS got a little too overzealous w/ the northern stream disturbance, it's much flatter/progressive in recent runs (kind of shocking tbh because the opposite is usually true!)

 

[Webberweather53]

Can the sfc temps respond please, that’s a good sounding if you can lower sfc tempsView attachment 53685

With the freezing level at or below 900mb in this sounding, we could probably snow w/ surface temps well above freezing, arguably in the 40s even.

 

[BufordWX]

CMC looks good for Tennessee.

 

[Webberweather53]

.... lol View attachment 53688

Alright, bring along a friend while you're at it, give us 2 for the price of one.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Damn the energy over the four corners sort of just meanders in one spot and can never truly phase with the upper level trough diving down over the east.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

With the freezing level at or below 900mb in this sounding, we could probably snow w/ surface temps well above freezing, arguably in the 40s even.

Given the cold air aloft would heavier rates help in that situation to cool the surface effectively, especially if there’s a dewpoint spread ?

 

[Ollie Williams]

Looking good so far on the CMC!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Let’s see what CMC does

 

[BufordWX]

CMC looks good for Tennessee.View attachment 53689

Actually brings flurries through much of Georgia as well. Lol

 

[Webberweather53]

Subtropical jet still going ? ? after wave 1 departs

 

[Ollie Williams]

SMH, looks like more cold rain on the CMC.

 

[Fountainguy97]

With the freezing level at or below 900mb in this sounding, we could probably snow w/ surface temps well above freezing, arguably in the 40s even.

yeah Pretty classic look there for convective snow showers even if surface is 40-45.

 

[Webberweather53]

SMH, looks like more cold rain on the CMC.
View attachment 53696

Lol of course massive mid-level warm nose ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

SMH, looks like more cold rain on the CMC.
View attachment 53696

Womp

 

[Webberweather53]

Given the cold air aloft would heavier rates help in that situation to cool the surface effectively, especially if there’s a dewpoint spread ?

Yeah absolutely, you'd have melting, sublimation, downward sensible heat transfer, & adiabatic lift all acting to cool the column