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Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers

Myfrotho704_ said:
If we get the -NAO like that to come into the picture it’s gonna get vodka cold around here
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What we actually need to get vodka cold is a -EPO to dislodge cooler air from Siberia and feed it into N America, -NAO will continue to provide us more temperate continental polar (Cp) air masses like we are currently seeing, but will afford us better opportunities for properly placed coastal cyclones. A -EPO coupled with a -NAO would be ideal but the wave pattern from -EPO often tends to destroy -NAOs, unless of course we have something to continuously support it (like a stratospheric warming event etc) and/or a strong -AO
 
It's a popular misconception that you need to have a cold surface high over New England to get adequate cold air transport for a coastal cyclone/Miller A in the Carolinas & I've been seeing it on here a lot lately. The reality is for coastal cyclones you really don't need it, having a surface high over the midwest is actually pretty optimal

1606301022075.png


Look at all the northerly flow and cold advection ahead of the surface high over the Great Plains
1606301064117.png


This composite of nearly 100 Miller A winter events for NC since 1948 also shows this pretty nicely, there's no cold high over New England or SE Canada

NCEPR1 MSLPa NC Miller A Winter Storms (1948-2019).png


The 6z GFS is in about the right place for something here taken at face value.

1606301188820.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's a popular misconception that you need to have a cold surface high over New England to get adequate cold air transport for a coastal cyclone/Miller A in the Carolinas & I've been seeing it on here a lot lately. The reality is for coastal cyclones you really don't need it, having a surface high over the midwest is actually pretty optimal

View attachment 53635


Look at all the northerly flow and cold advection ahead of the surface high over the Great Plains
View attachment 53636


This composite of nearly 100 Miller A winter events for NC since 1948 also shows this pretty nicely, there's no cold high over New England or SE Canada

View attachment 53637


The 6z GFS is in about the right place for something here taken at face value.

View attachment 53639
Click to expand...

On the other hand, what you often need for a good Miller A in the Carolinas in addition to a deep longwave trough centered just east of the TN/OH valley, is a west-based -NAO, a -AO & -EPO doesn't hurt either.

North America NCEPR1 z500a NC Miller A Winter Storms (1948-2019).png

Pattern-wise, of the most recent NWP model runs, the 0z operational ECMWF was the closest to reproducing this composite Miller A pattern

1606301438140.png
 
How bout that first wave wraparound snow on the 6z gfs?
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's a popular misconception that you need to have a cold surface high over New England to get adequate cold air transport for a coastal cyclone/Miller A in the Carolinas & I've been seeing it on here a lot lately. The reality is for coastal cyclones you really don't need it, having a surface high over the midwest is actually pretty optimal

View attachment 53635


Look at all the northerly flow and cold advection ahead of the surface high over the Great Plains
View attachment 53636


This composite of nearly 100 Miller A winter events for NC since 1948 also shows this pretty nicely, there's no cold high over New England or SE Canada

View attachment 53637


The 6z GFS is in about the right place for something here taken at face value.

View attachment 53639
Click to expand...
One thing I remember Eric Thomas off WBTV when I was a kid was him saying a big ole high coming out of the plains and low forming in the gulf. There's alot of truth in your post alot of ppl think a HP to our North is a must...its not unless you want ice with CAD.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
That’s because it’s on the other side of the globe ??‍♂️View attachment 53610

@Rain Cold loves it when it’s over there ?
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Lol...I honestly don't know what you guys are chasing. A Midwest snowstorm?! I like the pattern that ultimately appears to develop for some nice chilly weather. Hopefully that continues to show up.
 
Rain Cold said:
Lol...I honestly don't know what you guys are chasing. A Midwest snowstorm?! I like the pattern that ultimately appears to develop for some nice chilly weather. Hopefully that continues to show up.
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Ill be in mtns next week late.
Pretty good consensus this closes off over TN. TN and NC mtn posters have a decent shot at some nice leftovers backside.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Okay I will not ask anymore questions.
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Lol, being a new member is awesome and thank you for joining our team. As I always tell others in the past, if your new the best thing to do is sit back and learn a little. You will find out there are alot of smart and knowledgeable people up in here. I started years ago like you and ask questions and yes there were times I felt yay tall for asking. So keep posting, but be wise about it.
 
accu35 said:
Lol, being a new member is awesome and thank you for joining our team. As I always tell others in the past, if your new the best thing to do is sit back and learn a little. You will find out there are alot of smart and knowledgeable people up in here. I started years ago like you and ask questions and yes there were times I felt yay tall for asking. So keep posting, but be wise about it.
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Eric is just so smart and I don't understand some of the things he posts so I genuinely try to learn. I'll read up on the MJO and some other things. I'm sorry for causing frustration.
 
More backside members
GEFSSE_prec_ptypens_138.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Lol...I honestly don't know what you guys are chasing. A Midwest snowstorm?! I like the pattern that ultimately appears to develop for some nice chilly weather. Hopefully that continues to show up.
Click to expand...
Sounds good to me
 
Mcdowell_weather said:
One thing I remember Eric Thomas off WBTV when I was a kid was him saying a big ole high coming out of the plains and low forming in the gulf. There's alot of truth in your post alot of ppl think a HP to our North is a must...its not unless you want ice with CAD.
Click to expand...
This very true... in fact if you look at Charlotte’s two biggest snowstorms in the last 50 year, January 1988 and February 2004, both had the high centered over the Midwest
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's a popular misconception that you need to have a cold surface high over New England to get adequate cold air transport for a coastal cyclone/Miller A in the Carolinas & I've been seeing it on here a lot lately. The reality is for coastal cyclones you really don't need it, having a surface high over the midwest is actually pretty optimal

View attachment 53635


Look at all the northerly flow and cold advection ahead of the surface high over the Great Plains
View attachment 53636


This composite of nearly 100 Miller A winter events for NC since 1948 also shows this pretty nicely, there's no cold high over New England or SE Canada

View attachment 53637


The 6z GFS is in about the right place for something here taken at face value.

View attachment 53639
Click to expand...

Thanks for clarifying that for me! What is it that we need to trend towards on the GFS? Our waves just aren’t maturing, or getting enough cold air.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
On the other hand, what you often need for a good Miller A in the Carolinas in addition to a deep longwave trough centered just east of the TN/OH valley, is a west-based -NAO, a -AO & -EPO doesn't hurt either.

View attachment 53640

Pattern-wise, of the most recent NWP model runs, the 0z operational ECMWF was the closest to reproducing this composite Miller A pattern

View attachment 53641
Click to expand...

And a 1050 HP sitting over [mention]Tarheel1 [/mention]’s house.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Eric is just so smart and I don't understand some of the things he posts so I genuinely try to learn. I'll read up on the MJO and some other things. I'm sorry for causing frustration.
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There are a lot of informative web pages about the different alphabet soup weather terms. Even though it’s frowned upon by scholars to use as cited material, Wikipedia is a good source for answering a lot of questions you might have.
 
tramadoc said:
There are a lot of informative web pages about the different alphabet soup weather terms. Even though it’s frowned upon by scholars to use as cited material, Wikipedia is a good source for answering a lot of questions you might have.
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I feel like it might be a good time to dust off the learning thread and for us as a community to add to it, the wiki also has links to good resources. Maybe we can start moving some questions into that thread to get answers posted there. I'm sure that poster isn't the only one with those same questions.
 
SD said:
I feel like it might be a good time to dust off the learning thread and for us as a community to add to it, the wiki also has links to good resources. Maybe we can start moving some questions into that thread to get answers posted there. I'm sure that poster isn't the only one with those same questions.
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I also think it’s important to remember that we were all once there. Hopefully we will never discourage learning by asking questions, which the learning thread would be appropriate for.
 
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