Jeremy Camp
Member
I would love a polar vortex right now to kick of winter here in Texas.
I would love a polar vortex right now to kick of winter here in Texas.
What we actually need to get vodka cold is a -EPO to dislodge cooler air from Siberia and feed it into N America, -NAO will continue to provide us more temperate continental polar (Cp) air masses like we are currently seeing, but will afford us better opportunities for properly placed coastal cyclones. A -EPO coupled with a -NAO would be ideal but the wave pattern from -EPO often tends to destroy -NAOs, unless of course we have something to continuously support it (like a stratospheric warming event etc) and/or a strong -AOIf we get the -NAO like that to come into the picture it’s gonna get vodka cold around here
It's a popular misconception that you need to have a cold surface high over New England to get adequate cold air transport for a coastal cyclone/Miller A in the Carolinas & I've been seeing it on here a lot lately. The reality is for coastal cyclones you really don't need it, having a surface high over the midwest is actually pretty optimal
View attachment 53635
Look at all the northerly flow and cold advection ahead of the surface high over the Great Plains
View attachment 53636
This composite of nearly 100 Miller A winter events for NC since 1948 also shows this pretty nicely, there's no cold high over New England or SE Canada
View attachment 53637
The 6z GFS is in about the right place for something here taken at face value.
View attachment 53639
One thing I remember Eric Thomas off WBTV when I was a kid was him saying a big ole high coming out of the plains and low forming in the gulf. There's alot of truth in your post alot of ppl think a HP to our North is a must...its not unless you want ice with CAD.It's a popular misconception that you need to have a cold surface high over New England to get adequate cold air transport for a coastal cyclone/Miller A in the Carolinas & I've been seeing it on here a lot lately. The reality is for coastal cyclones you really don't need it, having a surface high over the midwest is actually pretty optimal
View attachment 53635
Look at all the northerly flow and cold advection ahead of the surface high over the Great Plains
View attachment 53636
This composite of nearly 100 Miller A winter events for NC since 1948 also shows this pretty nicely, there's no cold high over New England or SE Canada
View attachment 53637
The 6z GFS is in about the right place for something here taken at face value.
View attachment 53639
Lol...I honestly don't know what you guys are chasing. A Midwest snowstorm?! I like the pattern that ultimately appears to develop for some nice chilly weather. Hopefully that continues to show up.That’s because it’s on the other side of the globe ??View attachment 53610
@Rain Cold loves it when it’s over there ?
Does this mean warm weather?
Come on man...... read more and post less. This is all about where the Pacific forcing originates. Do some reading on the MJO. That will help explain it.Does this mean warm weather?
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Okay I will not ask anymore questions.Come on man...... read more and post less. This is all about where the Pacific forcing originates. Do some reading on the MJO. That will help explain it.
Ill be in mtns next week late.Lol...I honestly don't know what you guys are chasing. A Midwest snowstorm?! I like the pattern that ultimately appears to develop for some nice chilly weather. Hopefully that continues to show up.
Lol, being a new member is awesome and thank you for joining our team. As I always tell others in the past, if your new the best thing to do is sit back and learn a little. You will find out there are alot of smart and knowledgeable people up in here. I started years ago like you and ask questions and yes there were times I felt yay tall for asking. So keep posting, but be wise about it.Okay I will not ask anymore questions.
Eric is just so smart and I don't understand some of the things he posts so I genuinely try to learn. I'll read up on the MJO and some other things. I'm sorry for causing frustration.Lol, being a new member is awesome and thank you for joining our team. As I always tell others in the past, if your new the best thing to do is sit back and learn a little. You will find out there are alot of smart and knowledgeable people up in here. I started years ago like you and ask questions and yes there were times I felt yay tall for asking. So keep posting, but be wise about it.
Your fine lol. Eric has alot of us lost most of the time.Eric is just so smart and I don't understand some of the things he posts so I genuinely try to learn. I'll read up on the MJO and some other things. I'm sorry for causing frustration.
Sounds good to meLol...I honestly don't know what you guys are chasing. A Midwest snowstorm?! I like the pattern that ultimately appears to develop for some nice chilly weather. Hopefully that continues to show up.
This very true... in fact if you look at Charlotte’s two biggest snowstorms in the last 50 year, January 1988 and February 2004, both had the high centered over the MidwestOne thing I remember Eric Thomas off WBTV when I was a kid was him saying a big ole high coming out of the plains and low forming in the gulf. There's alot of truth in your post alot of ppl think a HP to our North is a must...its not unless you want ice with CAD.
I’m chasing mountain snow ??Lol...I honestly don't know what you guys are chasing. A Midwest snowstorm?! I like the pattern that ultimately appears to develop for some nice chilly weather. Hopefully that continues to show up.
It's a popular misconception that you need to have a cold surface high over New England to get adequate cold air transport for a coastal cyclone/Miller A in the Carolinas & I've been seeing it on here a lot lately. The reality is for coastal cyclones you really don't need it, having a surface high over the midwest is actually pretty optimal
View attachment 53635
Look at all the northerly flow and cold advection ahead of the surface high over the Great Plains
View attachment 53636
This composite of nearly 100 Miller A winter events for NC since 1948 also shows this pretty nicely, there's no cold high over New England or SE Canada
View attachment 53637
The 6z GFS is in about the right place for something here taken at face value.
View attachment 53639
That looks cooler than the 00Z
No one understands half the stuff he talks about. He could literally just be making words up and no one would notice.Eric is just so smart and I don't understand some of the things he posts so I genuinely try to learn. I'll read up on the MJO and some other things. I'm sorry for causing frustration.
Looks slightly cooler for Tennessee and the gulf statesThat looks cooler than the 00Z
On the other hand, what you often need for a good Miller A in the Carolinas in addition to a deep longwave trough centered just east of the TN/OH valley, is a west-based -NAO, a -AO & -EPO doesn't hurt either.
View attachment 53640
Pattern-wise, of the most recent NWP model runs, the 0z operational ECMWF was the closest to reproducing this composite Miller A pattern
View attachment 53641
Does this mean warm weather?
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Eric is just so smart and I don't understand some of the things he posts so I genuinely try to learn. I'll read up on the MJO and some other things. I'm sorry for causing frustration.
Yes, this is out in front of the first waveRather warm 850’s.
I feel like it might be a good time to dust off the learning thread and for us as a community to add to it, the wiki also has links to good resources. Maybe we can start moving some questions into that thread to get answers posted there. I'm sure that poster isn't the only one with those same questions.There are a lot of informative web pages about the different alphabet soup weather terms. Even though it’s frowned upon by scholars to use as cited material, Wikipedia is a good source for answering a lot of questions you might have.
I also think it’s important to remember that we were all once there. Hopefully we will never discourage learning by asking questions, which the learning thread would be appropriate for.I feel like it might be a good time to dust off the learning thread and for us as a community to add to it, the wiki also has links to good resources. Maybe we can start moving some questions into that thread to get answers posted there. I'm sure that poster isn't the only one with those same questions.