Six Mile Wx
Member
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Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
NoSnowATL
Member
And so it begins.....
FYI- before the complaining starts about "too soon" "jinx" whatever else, stop it, the thread is fine. The only suggestion I have is maybe opening up the dates on the title a little bit.
WXinCanton
Member
To have storm thread or to be even contemplating one on November 24th is pretty nuts!!!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Even this far out, I think it's pretty safe to say w/ near-certainty that someone east of the Rockies between Texas & Oklahoma to the Carolinas is going to see some significant winter weather during the first week of December from this upper level low given the active subtropical jet and very favorable longwave pattern/Rex blocking that'll be in place. That's about the extent of what we know regarding this "threat" atm.
Important to also keep in mind that upper lows and Rex blocking patterns are among the most unpredictable features to forecast and are usually full of surprises even in the short range, so expect a ton of changes between now & early December, arguably even more than you're accustomed to seeing in the day 9-10+ range.
Important to also keep in mind that upper lows and Rex blocking patterns are among the most unpredictable features to forecast and are usually full of surprises even in the short range, so expect a ton of changes between now & early December, arguably even more than you're accustomed to seeing in the day 9-10+ range.
Broken024
Member
Six Mile Wx
Member
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I say give it 5 days and we see where we are at then take swings at 3 cities or locations for totals and/or temps.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A +4 sigma PNA...
Umm wow
Might need to look into some statistics down the line to see how unusual/anomalous this is on a daily scale
Umm wow
Might need to look into some statistics down the line to see how unusual/anomalous this is on a daily scale
Jessy89
Member
It’s not to early for this thread. Because we all need it to move off of politics. But I will say hopefully things become clearer on this event after thanksgiving! Pretty excited to have something to track
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The most recent example I can find of a major winter storm in NC that occurred when of the EPO, NAO, WPO, & PNA, only the PNA was favorable occurred in January 2018 courtesy of (you guessed it) an upper level low.
A few honorable mentions to Dec 16-17 1973 & Jan 23-24 1955 that produced significant winter storms in NC during patterns where only the PNA was favorable
A few honorable mentions to Dec 16-17 1973 & Jan 23-24 1955 that produced significant winter storms in NC during patterns where only the PNA was favorable
I'll take any of those the first week of Dec and not complain one bit.
That first system is still on my mind for maybe some backside snow or something in NC/VA/TN, but man that STJ is a beaut.... 
I know the better chance for snow on the board will be the ULL, but don’t sleep on the first system completely. Still got a few good GEFS members for parts of the area early next week. Mountain support at the least looks somewhat better.
I like it 
Broken024
Member
Any of those will do
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
According to the GFS ensemble, we may be about to see the first +2 sigma (or greater) PNA day in December for the first time since 2014 & only the 2nd time since 2001.
Wow
Wow
It's about freaking time.