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Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers

So what's causing the upstate snowhole in this setup? (Not trying to be a mby question, just don't get it) Is it just a dryslot?
 
Sleet City USA said:
So what's causing the upstate snowhole in this setup? (Not trying to be a mby question, just don't get it) Is it just a dryslot?
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Almost certainly downsloping & just not the most favorable synoptic configuration on NWP, downsloping will be maximized over upstate SC when you're underneath deep layer NWly flow.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Can the sfc temps respond please, that’s a good sounding if you can lower sfc tempsView attachment 53685
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I could see a scenario where if the precip trends to being more convective in nature, then I could see heavy precip rates in the strongest bursts end up becoming heavy snow squalls
 
BufordWX said:
GEFS getting interesting.View attachment 53700View attachment 53701
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I'll take 14 out of 20 members showing flakes in December
GEFSSE_prec_snens_174.png
at the very least.
 
olhausen said:
Definitely best chance of an accumulating snow in December I’ve seen for middle Tennessee since December 2010. euro brings frozen precip in on Monday morning which is not that far out. But this Type of system is obviously going to be tricky and some could get a ton while others get very little.
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I made an edit of this post as it originally said best chance of snow for mid tenn since December 2010. Obviously it would be real sad if it had been 10 years since we had a chance of snow, lol. It was late and I meant to say best chance of snow in December for mid Tennessee since December 2010.
 
I am fond of early Dec snowstorms.....probably the second or third best storm of my life happened in early Dec back in 2000....no danger of a repeat of that though this year.....still loving that cold air the models have the first few weeks of the month....also if we can get this pattern to repeat a few times over the winter we could see some significant payouts for some folks....
 
ForsythSnow said:
A thing of that intensity isn't just going to go away that fast either if it verifies. Just need some cold air and we'll see something.
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I mean just to put into perspective how absolutely insane a ridge like that up there is, 588 decameter 500mb heights are normal for the middle of summer in the SE US.

1606328627643.png
 
BHS1975 said:
Need that over AK to tap into that Siberian air.


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A block over W Canada/+PNA tele-connects with a trough over the SE US. Thus the SER is kept away and the SE gets cold. But a block/ridge too far west, like over Alaska, may allow the SER to take over via a -PNA/La Nina pattern and it thus be warm/not allow any Siberian air to get here. Instead the Siberian air concentrates well to our NW.

I'd take a W Canadian block any day if I wanted it to get cold in the SE. You don't need Siberian air for it to get cold in the SE.
 
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