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Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers

I think you must take a step back with the pattern that lies ahead.. all ensemble runs and model runs aren’t going to be pretty for everyone’s backyard .. and it’s tough to get snow down here this time of year that’s for sure .. but also we’ve seen how bad the ensembles preformed last winter and usually only picked onto things that were 3-4 days out and sometimes models or ensembles wouldn’t even see snow a DAY out .. I’m not too worried about the models this far out especially with the delicate pattern we have down the stove pipe .. but let’s also remember it takes a lot of things to line up for anyone to get a good snow down south at this time of year.. don’t get the hopes too high .. we’re aiming for FLIZZARD action and that in and of its self would be a WIN
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I think you must take a step back with the pattern that lies ahead.. all ensemble runs and model runs aren’t going to be pretty for everyone’s backyard .. and it’s tough to get snow down here this time of year that’s for sure .. but also we’ve seen how bad the ensembles preformed last winter and usually only picked onto things that were 3-4 days out and sometimes models or ensembles wouldn’t even see snow a DAY out .. I’m not too worried about the models this far out especially with the delicate pattern we have down the stove pipe .. but let’s also remember it takes a lot of things to line up for anyone to get a good snow down south at this time of year.. don’t get the hopes too high .. we’re aiming for FLIZZARD action and that in and of its self would be a WIN
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I think you are forgetting that this time of the year is when the south has seen their best snows since 2017. So is it really that difficult to get snow this time of year in the south ?
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
I think you are forgetting that this time of the year is when the south has seen their best snows since 2017. So is it really that difficult to get snow this time of year in the south ?
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Haha climo wise yes it is difficult .. we’ve been lucky past few years
 
BufordWX said:
I just realized that if we get snow Monday it’s not even December yet. When was the last time Atlanta saw snow In November?
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Maybe 2013? I remember it snowed/accumulated the day before Thanksgiving, but it was gone it in a couple hrs.? Edit: Idk how much the airport got, but I got around 1/4 inch or so it wasn’t much and it was quick.
 
Major difference on 18z gfs in the low on H102 from 12z gfs

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Nick_boynton_ said:
I think you must take a step back with the pattern that lies ahead.. all ensemble runs and model runs aren’t going to be pretty for everyone’s backyard .. and it’s tough to get snow down here this time of year that’s for sure .. but also we’ve seen how bad the ensembles preformed last winter and usually only picked onto things that were 3-4 days out and sometimes models or ensembles wouldn’t even see snow a DAY out .. I’m not too worried about the models this far out especially with the delicate pattern we have down the stove pipe .. but let’s also remember it takes a lot of things to line up for anyone to get a good snow down south at this time of year.. don’t get the hopes too high .. we’re aiming for FLIZZARD action and that in and of its self would be a WIN
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You are absolutely correct. Reading this I’m reminded of what ------------- says he looks for first when it comes to forecasting winter weather... it’s pattern recognition. The pattern certainly seems to be coming in to give at least some of a chance and there are players on the field.
 
Chazwin said:
You are absolutely correct. Reading this I’m reminded of what ------------- says he looks for first when it comes to forecasting winter weather... it’s pattern recognition. The pattern certainly seems to be coming in to give at least some of a chance and there are players on the field.
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Yeah, as much as you guys know I complain. I’m still staying up for the 00z models. Not too far fetched to see something.
 
Really liking the look for wrap around snow on the 18z gfs

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