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Learning Model watching for newbies and other Winter advice

Arcc

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Due to the models becoming more certain on a +PNA/-EPO pattern, I have no doubt we will start to see winter storms pop up on the models in the coming days. Due to that I'm sure the site will have another influx of members. I wanted to do this thread to help out on what to watch for and what NOT to post about interpretations of the models during winter time threats. Maybe this will help everyone out. As time permits I will find example images about what I'm talking about. 

1. Just because the model shows QPF or precip and the 0C line is south of you, does not mean snow. QPF is displayed six hours to twelve hours behind the temperature map depending on the model time frame. So if you see this scenario, check the temp six or twelve hours behind and then overlay the QPF map in your mind. Of it is still good, you need to check for warm noses, high surface temps and moisture saturation. Watch what you post. 

2. The phrase "Cold chasing moisture" has another name, it's called a "Cold Front". If you see someone post something to this effect and say some thing like "maybe the cold air will speed up", discount that post. This scenario only works one out of a hundred times in the SE unless you live in the mountains or have a super clipper come through. 

3. Clown maps! Before you get all excited about the foot of Snow the GFS has for you, you need to realize many snow maps also include freezing rain and sleet in the totals. Some also just count the snow that falls, NOT what actually accumulates. Check the soundings using Pivitol WX or Twister Data or Bufkit before getting excited. 

4. That dadgum Great Lakes Low. This rarely has an effect on any winter event. Don't worry about it.

5. There is a low popped in the gulf on that weather map because of the big red L. Firstly make sure that is a legit low pressure. For example, a 1016mb "L" on the map in a large area of 1017mb pressure with a 1028mb High pressure pulling southeast a few hundred miles away is not a Miller A. Sorry to spoil dreams. Some site such as Tropical Tidbits mark the area of the absolute lowest pressure. 

6. Yes the northwest trend is real. No it's not because the model hates you, but because the models love to over amp the northern stream.  So for your hearts sake, don't buy in to a Miller A bringing Mobile a foot. You have been warned. 

7. WAA means Warm air advection and CAA means cold air advection. 

8. When looking at WX models, you want to be north of every part of a low pressure system. A lot north of the surface low and just north and along the track of the low at 850mb and 700mb. 

9. Being south of the 700mb low will rip your heart out. Another firm warning.
 
This isn't model watching but it's something that drives me crazy....a winter weather advisory is an UPGRADE from a winter storm watch

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SD said:
This isn't model watching but it's something that drives me crazy....a winter weather advisory is an UPGRADE from a winter storm watch

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk

I always thought, wsw was a upgrade from wwa
 
Nothing like going from a Winter Storm Watch, to a wwa! That's like a kick in the sack!
- Take all snowfall clown maps, with a grain of salt, most show ice accumulation as snow and will rip your heart in half!
- Don't believe JB
-Don't watch TWC or use their APP
 
I always thought, wsw was a upgrade from wwa
The watch means they are watching things, of course. This comes before the decision of WSW ( more severe event/ impactful) or WWA ( nuisance event)
 
Stop being a nerd mack. the clique doesn't exist here.
 
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