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Wintry Nov 12-13 Cold & Light Mix

Doubt any alerts east of mtns..usually lower elevation rural spots (surry/wilkes) will be used as a ground truth before any special statements or advisories for Winston east...so if any will be very short notice.
 
Definitely the most snow I’ve gotten in November in 11 years of living here!
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trying to switch over in Huntsville, Ala... 34 and rain, freezing rain in the surrounding hills. Moisture cut off is not far behind though. Going to be tough to get a change over in CHA. Heard this tune a thousand times unfortunately. I'll stay up an hour or so more. The heavier bands of snow in East Tn are going to be for mid valley north, and the plateau and mountains, obviously. Even there, short-lived.
 
Temp rapidly falling now down to 40.2. Freezing level has dropped down below 4kft now and just waiting on the last few thousand too cool off.

should see changeover when my surface hits 36-37 according to reports form my west.
 
41 F IMBY, temp has dropped about 3 F since getting up 30 minutes ago and the wind is howling. Hope to see at least a few flakes out of this.
 
Rain Cold said:
51 and liquiding lightly. May be the sun angle? Sun is out, barely above the horizon, creating a yellowish-orange sky. Sailors warning liquid snow alert!
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Temp will drop fast later today when the front passes. RAH saying folks along and north of US64 should see a little snow or sleet:

Non-liquid precip chances: As models converge on an agreed-upon
common timing of precip and vertical thermal structure, confidence
is fairly high that the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain
(roughly along and N of Hwy 64) will see some wet flakes and/or
sleet pellets mixing in with the rain on the back edge of the
precip. But based on how the strongest and deepest lift (including
fgen and that aforementioned strengthening upper divergence) is
lining up vertically and temporally with the arrival of the cold air
and within the DGZ, I have some concerns that we`ll see a short
period of sufficiently high precip rates to switch us over to mostly
snow and sleet for a brief time, although likely no more than an
hour. While the ground should be warm enough to prevent accumulation
there (NC State Climate Office agnet stations confirm this), heavy
enough rates may produce a light coating on elevated surfaces.
Confidence in this scenario is not high enough to warrant any
mention of accumulation at this time. But this is certainly
something to be watched closely this morning.
 
Hoping for my first flakes of 2019 this afternoon. Still about 50 and light rain in the Raleigh area.
 
The melting layer, represented by the arc of lower correlation coefficient values almost completely encircling the KGSP radar at large radii, is pretty evident this morning & it looks like it’s around 8000 above ground level feet east of the mountains atm. It should progressively fall throughout the morning (or in this case the melting layer will get closer to the radar), and this distance to the radar (which also provides hints to the temperature profile in the low-mid levels) will be important to monitor for areas in the northern piedmont of NC anticipating some wet snow or sleet to mix in with the rain later today.

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The melting layer is descending on the KGSP radar over the NC piedmont, indicative that the low-mid levels are progressively cooling. Still a big question mark if this will be enough for areas like Greensboro or Raleigh to briefly switch over to sleet or wet snow later.


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Well sitting at 35 right now in ATL I sure hope the cloud cover moves out in time and doesn't linger and the wind keeps up can't really afford to over near freezing or have the Artic front win out but it should help move the overcast out anyway
 
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