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Wintry Nov 12-13 Cold & Light Mix

BirdManDoomW

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#1
Given the risk to outdoor animals and possible plumbing issues esp. NC mountains a thread was warranted. Some places could break 100 year records. May this clear the other thread for other November interests.
 

ForsythSnow

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#3
So this thread is only for the cold and not the potential system that falls in those dates as well?


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Only reason I'm not deleting it is because it is an unusual cold event. IF a storm happens to stay in the runs AND we get inside day 5, I or someone else will add it to the title.
 

Ollie Williams

It Gon’ Rain
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#4
11/6 12z
I'm not totally sure where to put this but, here are today's 12z Ensemble totals, in comparison to yesterdays
Not too much chance, the GFS looks worse but the Euro looks better.
If you haven't seen my post from yesterday that explains this graphic (linked)
Today's
nc snow #2.PNG
Yesterday's



Good evening everybody, I hope all is well.
With our small chance of snow next week, I went ahead and analyzed all the data and created a graphic (see below)
*Disclaimer This data is based on model analytics and is no way includes model biases or any human forecasting*

Data: 12z EPS and GFS ensemble members, reflected from Weatherbell Meteograms
Region: KGSO (Greensboro) Most Triad regions apply, even triangle regions wouldn't be too far off

Section 1. Mean
What I did with this set was as I created my excel spreadsheet, I set up the members and found their averages separately. The second thing I did was, weigh the members seperately. The GEFS was weighed 40% of the total; 1.1(mean) was multiplied by .40 and I got .44 The EPS was weighed 60%, I multiplied .29(mean) times .60 and got 0.171. I then added the total and got my average in which see below which is 61". Nothing Incredible

Section 2. % of members show snow
A bit more self-explanatory, I turned the members that showed snow into a percentage.

Section 3. Consistency.
What is did here was to use the mathematical formula, Mean Absolute Deviation, or for short MAD. Essentially It's the average distance the ensemble members are away from the mean. The process would be finding the original average, subtract the average from each member and find the average of that product. It is helpful because it lets you know whether a model is much more or less likely to verify. So essentially the smaller the number, the more likely that model set will verify and vise virsa, you could have a mean with 100 inches of snow, but will a low number, that would most likely verify, a high number and that means that 100 mean probably has a couple 50" members and a few 200" members.

Summary: This snow chance at the moment is very low right now, however, bears watching. As we head into the week, I hope to keep track of all these variables.
View attachment 25474
 

BirdManDoomW

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#7
You got a few more days to prepare before stores run out of cedar chips. Inventory is rather low this time of year for keeping outdoor animals warm FYI.
 

Shawn

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#8
I'm starting to see signs that this cold wave may not be as potent as we thought, but nothing set in stone yet. Still chilly for November, I guess.
 

PEA_RIDGE

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#12
FROM JAMES SPANN IN BHAM..

After we have a cold front move through the area during the late-night on Monday and into the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday, we’ll need to be ready for the Arctic blast that will be hitting us on Tuesday. The latest complete run of the European model continues to show temperatures topping out in the mid-30s to the lower 40s across Central Alabama from northwest to southeast during the afternoon hours. Also, don’t be surprised if you see a few sleet pellets or snow flurries on the backside of the rain shield as it moves through during the early morning hours.

If that wasn’t bad enough with it just being very cold, winds will be cranking out of the north with gusts as high as 30 MPH possible, with the average wind speed ending up around 15 MPH. With that being the case, we could see wind chills during the warmest part of the day only in the upper 20s to the mid-30s.

News is only a little better for Wednesday as the wind will not be as bad, but we could still have some gusts as high as 15 MPH at times out of the north. Daytime highs look to top out in the lower to mid-40s across the area and wind chill values could be held back in the mid to upper 30s.
sfctapp.us_se.png EURO 168 WC.png
 

BirdManDoomW

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#14
Low of 22 or less for many next week. Hard kill to any vegetation and bugs. Teens in the mountains. I wouldn’t rule out single digits above 5,500ft.
 
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#15
What happened to the Winter Discussion thread?
The winter discussion thread is still live. This thread is for the severe cold air outbreak for those dates that are on the name of this thread. Also, if there will be a winter storm, the thread will be revised.

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BirdManDoomW

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#19
When is the cold coming? 😔
Your forecast screams sleet onset to me. Low 25 then highs barely scraping 40 before precip? If enough dry stable cold air is deposited east of the mtns I can see it happening pretty far south/west.
 
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#20
I know most people on here wont be seeing snow but TN and KY have a good shot I believe.
Actually, as I been posting for the last couple days, there's a chance on the southern side which the nam and other models have been showing also the 12z gfs now has it back in sleet/ freezing rain. Not much but something
 
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