Given the risk to outdoor animals and possible plumbing issues esp. NC mountains a thread was warranted. Some places could break 100 year records. May this clear the other thread for other November interests.
Only reason I'm not deleting it is because it is an unusual cold event. IF a storm happens to stay in the runs AND we get inside day 5, I or someone else will add it to the title.So this thread is only for the cold and not the potential system that falls in those dates as well?
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Good evening everybody, I hope all is well.
With our small chance of snow next week, I went ahead and analyzed all the data and created a graphic (see below)
*Disclaimer This data is based on model analytics and is no way includes model biases or any human forecasting*
Data: 12z EPS and GFS ensemble members, reflected from Weatherbell Meteograms
Region: KGSO (Greensboro) Most Triad regions apply, even triangle regions wouldn't be too far off
Section 1. Mean
What I did with this set was as I created my excel spreadsheet, I set up the members and found their averages separately. The second thing I did was, weigh the members seperately. The GEFS was weighed 40% of the total; 1.1(mean) was multiplied by .40 and I got .44 The EPS was weighed 60%, I multiplied .29(mean) times .60 and got 0.171. I then added the total and got my average in which see below which is 61". Nothing Incredible
Section 2. % of members show snow
A bit more self-explanatory, I turned the members that showed snow into a percentage.
Section 3. Consistency.
What is did here was to use the mathematical formula, Mean Absolute Deviation, or for short MAD. Essentially It's the average distance the ensemble members are away from the mean. The process would be finding the original average, subtract the average from each member and find the average of that product. It is helpful because it lets you know whether a model is much more or less likely to verify. So essentially the smaller the number, the more likely that model set will verify and vise virsa, you could have a mean with 100 inches of snow, but will a low number, that would most likely verify, a high number and that means that 100 mean probably has a couple 50" members and a few 200" members.
Summary: This snow chance at the moment is very low right now, however, bears watching. As we head into the week, I hope to keep track of all these variables.
View attachment 25474
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/winter-2019-20-discussion.595/What happened to the Winter Discussion thread?
I'm starting to see signs that this cold wave may not be as potent as we thought, but nothing set in stone yet. Still chilly for November, I guess.
It has been far easier to get snow into Mexico than into central NC lately. Ug.
The winter discussion thread is still live. This thread is for the severe cold air outbreak for those dates that are on the name of this thread. Also, if there will be a winter storm, the thread will be revised.What happened to the Winter Discussion thread?
January or so ...When is the cold coming? ?View attachment 25670
The cold is coming, but the deep freeze isn't going to last, it's only November!When is the cold coming? ?View attachment 25670
Your forecast screams sleet onset to me. Low 25 then highs barely scraping 40 before precip? If enough dry stable cold air is deposited east of the mtns I can see it happening pretty far south/west.When is the cold coming? ?
Actually, as I been posting for the last couple days, there's a chance on the southern side which the nam and other models have been showing also the 12z gfs now has it back in sleet/ freezing rain. Not much but somethingI know most people on here wont be seeing snow but TN and KY have a good shot I believe.