18z HRRrrrRRrrRRrRrR shows light icing for northern MS/AL, very similar to 18z 12k NAM snow wise
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Wintry Nov 12-13 Cold & Light Mix
- Thread starter BirdManDoomW
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Roxboro wins again. I would have never seen that coming!
This is true, not generally in November, but we see back end flurries here usually several times a year.
WxBlue
Meteorologist
If I ever move around the Triangle again with a better job, I'll consider living in Roxboro or just south of it. It's comical.
Rosie
Member
80% chance in am tomorrow!
WRAL now talking about the possibility of some wet flakes or sleet pellets mixing in the RDU area.
Brent
Member
36 and drizzle here remember it was in the 60s at 10am 
I'm not feeling much frozen precip but this front is legit
I'm not feeling much frozen precip but this front is legit
33 with a rain/snow mix.
Here's a good radar site to track this sytem
http://web2.wright-weather.com/cgi-bin2/loopradar.cgi?type=mosaic/us_mosaic-&type2=12&type3=cities
http://web2.wright-weather.com/cgi-bin2/loopradar.cgi?type=mosaic/us_mosaic-&type2=12&type3=cities
ATLwxfan
Member
Us ITP’ers read back end flurries and laugh uncontrollably.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Showmeyourtds
Member
All snow. 32F
Rhyno23
Member
NWMSGuy
Member
AFD from Memphis:
.DISCUSSION...
A strong cold front is barreling through the Mid-South this
afternoon and is located roughly along the Interstate 40 corridor
as of 3 PM. Temperatures behind the front are quickly dropping
into the mid 40s and will continue to fall through the evening as
cold air rushes into the region from the north. Temperatures in
southern MO are already around freezing with snow observed as near
as Poplar Bluff, MO. The rain/snow line will shift south
throughout the evening, but will be racing against the dry air
aloft approaching from the northwest along the trough axis.
Strong frontogenetic forcing will exist in behind the cold front,
gradually diminishing and lifting into the mid-levels through
early Tuesday. This will maintain precipitation well into the
evening hours. Rain will generally change over to light sleet
this evening, then snow as the rain/snow line moves south. There
is a window of a few hours for this changeover to occur with light
accumulations possible across west TN, northeast AR, and the MO
Bootheel. One caveat is the area of instability over central AR,
highlighted by the thunderstorms near Little Rock. This could sure
wreak havoc with precip type.
This precipitation is expected to end from northwest to southeast
beginning after 03z, but if forced ascent continues as the dry
air aloft arrives, the drying of the dendritic growth zone could
result in a period of light freezing drizzle. Confidence remains
low in this scenario, but the potential does exist. As far as
winter weather headlines, the snow/sleet accumulations are
currently expected to remain below advisory criteria, so the SPS
will be updated to reflect recent changes. It would not be
surprising to see an advisory needed eventually this evening, but
we`ll have to see how this system evolves over the next few hours.
The other issue is the very cold air. The combination of record
cold temperatures and strong north winds will push wind chill
readings into the single digits and teens late tonight and early
Tuesday. With temperatures only warming into the upper 20s and
lower 30s tomorrow, wind chill values will remain in the 20s
throughout the day. Also, a few flurries cannot be ruled out
tomorrow as the very cold air aloft overspreads the region.
Winds will become light under clear skies on Tuesday night. This
will promote strong radiational cooling, supporting overnight lows
in the mid teens to near 20 degrees Wednesday morning. Again,
we`re looking at record temperatures during this period.
Fortunately, a moderating trend is anticipated throughout the
remainder of the week, despite a reinforcing cold front on
Thursday. This system looks to be too dry to support rainfall,
with precipitation confined to areas closer to the Gulf coast. Dry
weather will persist through the weekend as short-wave ridging
affects the lower MS Valley. Both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble
suites indicate a high likelihood of dry weather during this
period. The deterministic runs depict a deep trough swinging
across the MS Valley late Sunday into Monday. This may be the next
opportunity for precipitation, but chances remain low at this
time.
.DISCUSSION...
A strong cold front is barreling through the Mid-South this
afternoon and is located roughly along the Interstate 40 corridor
as of 3 PM. Temperatures behind the front are quickly dropping
into the mid 40s and will continue to fall through the evening as
cold air rushes into the region from the north. Temperatures in
southern MO are already around freezing with snow observed as near
as Poplar Bluff, MO. The rain/snow line will shift south
throughout the evening, but will be racing against the dry air
aloft approaching from the northwest along the trough axis.
Strong frontogenetic forcing will exist in behind the cold front,
gradually diminishing and lifting into the mid-levels through
early Tuesday. This will maintain precipitation well into the
evening hours. Rain will generally change over to light sleet
this evening, then snow as the rain/snow line moves south. There
is a window of a few hours for this changeover to occur with light
accumulations possible across west TN, northeast AR, and the MO
Bootheel. One caveat is the area of instability over central AR,
highlighted by the thunderstorms near Little Rock. This could sure
wreak havoc with precip type.
This precipitation is expected to end from northwest to southeast
beginning after 03z, but if forced ascent continues as the dry
air aloft arrives, the drying of the dendritic growth zone could
result in a period of light freezing drizzle. Confidence remains
low in this scenario, but the potential does exist. As far as
winter weather headlines, the snow/sleet accumulations are
currently expected to remain below advisory criteria, so the SPS
will be updated to reflect recent changes. It would not be
surprising to see an advisory needed eventually this evening, but
we`ll have to see how this system evolves over the next few hours.
The other issue is the very cold air. The combination of record
cold temperatures and strong north winds will push wind chill
readings into the single digits and teens late tonight and early
Tuesday. With temperatures only warming into the upper 20s and
lower 30s tomorrow, wind chill values will remain in the 20s
throughout the day. Also, a few flurries cannot be ruled out
tomorrow as the very cold air aloft overspreads the region.
Winds will become light under clear skies on Tuesday night. This
will promote strong radiational cooling, supporting overnight lows
in the mid teens to near 20 degrees Wednesday morning. Again,
we`re looking at record temperatures during this period.
Fortunately, a moderating trend is anticipated throughout the
remainder of the week, despite a reinforcing cold front on
Thursday. This system looks to be too dry to support rainfall,
with precipitation confined to areas closer to the Gulf coast. Dry
weather will persist through the weekend as short-wave ridging
affects the lower MS Valley. Both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble
suites indicate a high likelihood of dry weather during this
period. The deterministic runs depict a deep trough swinging
across the MS Valley late Sunday into Monday. This may be the next
opportunity for precipitation, but chances remain low at this
time.
Like clock work
Rhyno23
Member
Yep, I usually get at least a dusting when they close.
At the moment I'm not extremely optimistic about snow, in NC.
I do want to let you know that the Nam has spoken for folks in the Triad. While to me, I would not be surprised if Sleet came out of this sounding with some good lift and include some heavier precip and very cold 925's to freeze the layer. On the contrary, the Nam is spotting a bit of a warm nose, which we've learned to lean towards Its thermal solutions.
Comparison, NAM, a classic warm nose, warmer 850's, cold 925's
GFS (much cooler 850's)
I do want to let you know that the Nam has spoken for folks in the Triad. While to me, I would not be surprised if Sleet came out of this sounding with some good lift and include some heavier precip and very cold 925's to freeze the layer. On the contrary, the Nam is spotting a bit of a warm nose, which we've learned to lean towards Its thermal solutions.
Comparison, NAM, a classic warm nose, warmer 850's, cold 925's
GFS (much cooler 850's)