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Wintry Nov 12-13 Cold & Light Mix

I gotta admit, the GEFS absolutely nailed this potential for IP/ZR several days out over south-central Texas.

Areas as far south as Laredo, Brownsville, & Corpus Christi could get in on the action later tonight & into tomorrow. Keep in mind their snow climo is much worse than nearly all members on this forum.

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Webberweather53 said:
I gotta admit, the GEFS absolutely nailed this potential for IP/ZR several days out over south-central Texas.

Areas as far south as Laredo, Brownsville, & Corpus Christi could get in on the action later tonight & into tomorrow. Keep in mind their snow climo is much worse than nearly all members on this forum.

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I've been posting the gefs like crazy and the nam crazy clowns maps when people though I was crazy. Also notice that precipitation in Texas and Louisiana is further north while moving east bound. Some models were picking up on that
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
HRRRRRR isn’t impressed with NC’s chances outside of the mountains. What gives?
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HRRR and RAP do this stuff all the time. It'll lure you in with false hopes of an overperforming event at first... and then they'll slowly crush your soul as we count down hours toward the end of event. Always buy low with these short-range models.

I've been burned by HRRR/RAP so many times in New England before I learned my lesson :\
 
WxBlue said:
HRRR and RAP do this stuff all the time. It'll lure you in with false hopes of an overperforming event at first... and then they'll slowly crush your soul as we count down hours toward the end of event. Always buy low with these short-range models.

I've been burned by HRRR/RAP so many times in New England before I learned my lesson :\
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? we all got burnt on an icing event last year. 12k NAM showed a wedge into Macon when it got into range with ice totals approaching an inch for most in the Carolinas only for it to verify as 34 degree rain for 90% of the board. It was glorious
 
The precip rates on the HRRR were significantly lower than on previous runs which likely explains the lack of snow in NC east of the mountains on the 0z suite. It'll be important to monitor how closely the HRRR resembles reality upstream to get a sense of whether or not this trend is actually real or model noise.


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Anyway, here's my "final call" snow accumulation forecast that I posted across social media to family and friends. I made this earlier this morning and I still haven't seen a reason to change my map. I believe mountain peaks... especially Smokies, Blacks, Balsams, and Roan Highlands... should do well with northwest flow snow that'll do some upsloping. Anyone above 4,000' should see up to 4-6 inches and between 2,500' to 4,000' should see 2-4 inches. There will be some snow spillovers into valleys... especially Asheville and Boone... that could accumulate up to an inch. Outside mountains, I am not forecasting any accumulation... but I highlighted the area that *could* see a surprise flurry event if we do get a brief rain-to-snow changeover before the end of event.

I'm a current GIS graduate student at NC State so I used my new ArcGIS skills to put together this map. Fun stuff.Chance_of_Snow_11_13_ver8_2.png
 
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