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Wintry Nov 12-13 Cold & Light Mix

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Some observations from tracking many snow events in the north...

ARW = Always really wicked juiced. Not a fan of this suite...
NAM = Pretty accurate sniffing out areas for snow vs. rain. Sometimes too amped with dynamics.
HRRR, RAP, etc... = often over juiced by a bit... usually end up getting about 50-75% of initial output.
 
Someone on the other board said the euro looked better for middle and eastern Tennessee. Anyone got maps? I have not renewed my subscription yet as I usually don’t until December. I might change that soon though.
 
So this whole event for MS,AL,GA looks to be going from 9 PM tonight to 12 PM Tuesday. So we are in now-casting as much as we are watching short term models. I hate over-running events a slight over performance or under performance of conditions means the world of difference. For example like at the RAP having snow down into the Metro ATL area. Now I'm not calling for this not many models getting winter precipitation all they way down to Metro Atl and temps supposed to in middle of day around 34-35 but a few degrees off can become a nasty mess.

-Real-time watching of High and Arctic air along
-Moisture Feed and just how much precipitation we seem to get going
 
As a forecaster, I wouldn't bet on anything more than 1" in valleys of western NC and between 1-4" for mountain peaks above 4,000 feet. I think odds are too low that we see accumulation outside mountains into central NC so I wouldn't forecast it publicly. Can't rule out flurries for Triad to Triangle, though.
 
WxBlue said:
As a forecaster, I wouldn't bet on anything more than 1" in valleys of western NC and between 1-4" for mountain peaks above 4,000 feet. I think odds are too low that we see accumulation outside mountains into central NC so I wouldn't forecast it publicly. Can't rule out flurries for Triad to Triangle, though.
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Agree. While I wouldn't completely rule it out either, it looks like the chances of seeing wet flakes or a brief change-over around the Triangle are very low. Maybe 5%.
 
eyewall said:
Central NC folks DON"T fall for this. We will not see anything out of it. It is a classic cold chasing the moisture. It almost NEVER works out.
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Yep. The only reason I'd even consider the possibility this time is how anomalous the incoming air mass is.
 
eyewall said:
Central NC folks DON"T fall for this. We will not see anything out of it. It is a classic cold chasing the moisture. It almost NEVER works out.
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Unfortunately, the "almost" part is there because it do works out sometimes and it's a possibility that we cannot dismiss entirely. Gotta love anafront events... /sarcasm
 
While I am happy some folks on here will see their first flakes of the year on here, I just think it's cool that we are getting such a shot of cold air this early in the season. Temps will literally fall all day here in the Midlands of SC tomorrow. You don't see things like that often, especially in November. If you have an PWS, tonight into tomorrow will be a fun with checking out obs.
 
HRRR detecting bright banding already with that band of precipitation with a isothermal sounding, could see a heavy burst of wet snow if there’s that much lift/- omega inside the DGZ 65216986-80E2-405F-8C68-0B67E8660DF4.png00D3FCDC-556C-4715-B3C0-4579F2036158.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
While its probably not as good as mesoscale models now, it’s worth noting how the gefs continues to bump up the mean, almost every ensemble member agrees on snow making it past the mountains View attachment 25806View attachment 25807
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I'll make sure to enjoy my 37 and rain. In all seriousness, this has been an interesting one to track, and I'm rooting for y'all elsewhere
 
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