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Wintry Nov 12-13 Cold & Light Mix

Ollie Williams said:
At the moment I'm not extremely optimistic about snow, in NC.
I do want to let you know that the Nam has spoken for folks in the Triad. While to me, I would not be surprised if Sleet came out of this sounding with some good lift and include some heavier precip and very cold 925's to freeze the layer. On the contrary, the Nam is spotting a bit of a warm nose, which we've learned to lean towards Its thermal solutions.
Comparison, NAM, a classic warm nose, warmer 850's, cold 925's
View attachment 25818
GFS (much cooler 850's)View attachment 25819
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Yeah the NAM sounding verbatim would suggest a rain/sleet mix in the Triad.
 
My current thoughts on this event in NC:
Rain will most likely changeover to snow in the northern piedmont, north of US HWY 64 (if anywhere). Given that rates will be moderate-heavy if any snow/sleet occurs, a slushy coating on grassy and elevated surfaces is legitimately possible in areas like the Triad and Roxboro. We also can't entirely rule out some stray wet flakes or sleet pellets making it into areas like Raleigh or Charlotte, but no accumulation is expected.

Regardless, it's nice to have the potential for a little appetizer event in November. Even seeing snow or sleet in the air around lunchtime tomorrow in Charlotte would be a considered a win here w/ this one.

November 12 2019 NC Snowmap forecast.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
My current thoughts on this event in NC:
Rain will most likely changeover to snow in the northern piedmont, north of US HWY 64 (if anywhere). Given that rates will be moderate-heavy if any snow/sleet occurs, a slushy coating on grassy and elevated surfaces is legitimately possible in areas like the Triad and Roxboro. We also can't entirely rule out some stray wet flakes or sleet pellets making it into areas like Raleigh or Charlotte, but no accumulation is expected.

Regardless, it's nice to have the potential for a little appetizer event in November. Even seeing snow or sleet in the air around lunchtime tomorrow in Charlotte would be a considered a win here w/ this one.

View attachment 25820
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Agree with your map. With as many near sleet soundings you can find on the models during the last 1-2 hours of precip it seems pretty likely there will be a good amount of reports of a change over.
With as much fgen as we have I do wonder if we start to see banded precip occurring where some snow in the heavy bands near the back edge can survive a thin warm nose or if melting can cool the column to snow.

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Some ZR not too far away from you @Brent
KDFW_mosaic-819984.gif
 
SD said:
Agree with your map. With as many near sleet soundings you can find on the models during the last 1-2 hours of precip it seems pretty likely there will be a good amount of reports of a change over.
With as much fgen as we have I do wonder if we start to see banded precip occurring where some snow in the heavy bands near the back edge can survive a thin warm nose or if melting can cool the column to snow.

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Yeah that’s exactly what I’m thinking, I believe we should at the very least see some reports of sleet/rain in the northern piedmont if the soundings bust warm
 
guess I’ll be up around 6am checking for a few flying flakes haha.

for my area I’m concerned my temp won’t drop as fast as modeled. Already one NW flow event we were forecast to go down to 31 but woke up with a low of 33.

this is completely different though with a front and steady precip. Just a wait and see kind of event.

10DE6F43-537B-495C-949D-9204AA5E27E8.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah that’s exactly what I’m thinking, I believe we should at the very least see some reports of sleet/rain in the northern piedmont if the soundings bust warm
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Made the mistake of looking at the arws can't unsee the changeover.

I think a sleeper area will be the norfolk, va beach, Elizabeth city, Edenton area where we could see some bay/ocean effect snow

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SD said:
Made the mistake of looking at the arws can't unsee the changeover.

I think a sleeper area will be the norfolk, va beach, Elizabeth city, Edenton area where we could see some bay/ocean effect snow

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Yeap that water is still plenty warm enough.


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SD said:
Made the mistake of looking at the arws can't unsee the changeover.

I think a sleeper area will be the norfolk, va beach, Elizabeth city, Edenton area where we could see some bay/ocean effect snow

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All in....

Rah NWS - Areas from Roxboro to Roanoke Rapids seem most likely to see this brief mix, which is consistent with a couple HREF members.

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metwannabe said:
All in....

Rah NWS - Areas from Roxboro to Roanoke Rapids seem most likely to see this brief mix, which is consistent with a couple HREF members.

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You might be one of the privileged few that has a second chance to see snow after the frontal passage in the form of a lake effect band off Kerr Lake. Kinda jealous already
 
Webberweather53 said:
You might be one of the privileged few that has a second chance to see snow after the frontal passage in the form of a lake effect band off Kerr Lake. Kinda jealous already
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I think I'm too far east, however might happen at the office of course by then I'll be headed out Lol... look if I see a flake or ip on Nov. 12th I'll call it a win. Otherwise the brutal cold coming in tomorrow night will be fun to track, wind chills Wednesday AM in teens...bring it!

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I gotta admit, the GEFS absolutely nailed this potential for IP/ZR several days out over south-central Texas.

Areas as far south as Laredo, Brownsville, & Corpus Christi could get in on the action later tonight & into tomorrow. Keep in mind their snow climo is much worse than nearly all members on this forum.

KSAT_mosaic-819996.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
I gotta admit, the GEFS absolutely nailed this potential for IP/ZR several days out over south-central Texas.

Areas as far south as Laredo, Brownsville, & Corpus Christi could get in on the action later tonight & into tomorrow. Keep in mind their snow climo is much worse than nearly all members on this forum.

View attachment 25825
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I've been posting the gefs like crazy and the nam crazy clowns maps when people though I was crazy. Also notice that precipitation in Texas and Louisiana is further north while moving east bound. Some models were picking up on that
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
HRRRRRR isn’t impressed with NC’s chances outside of the mountains. What gives?
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HRRR and RAP do this stuff all the time. It'll lure you in with false hopes of an overperforming event at first... and then they'll slowly crush your soul as we count down hours toward the end of event. Always buy low with these short-range models.

I've been burned by HRRR/RAP so many times in New England before I learned my lesson :\
 
WxBlue said:
HRRR and RAP do this stuff all the time. It'll lure you in with false hopes of an overperforming event at first... and then they'll slowly crush your soul as we count down hours toward the end of event. Always buy low with these short-range models.

I've been burned by HRRR/RAP so many times in New England before I learned my lesson :\
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? we all got burnt on an icing event last year. 12k NAM showed a wedge into Macon when it got into range with ice totals approaching an inch for most in the Carolinas only for it to verify as 34 degree rain for 90% of the board. It was glorious
 
The precip rates on the HRRR were significantly lower than on previous runs which likely explains the lack of snow in NC east of the mountains on the 0z suite. It'll be important to monitor how closely the HRRR resembles reality upstream to get a sense of whether or not this trend is actually real or model noise.


download - 2019-11-11T204327.248.png

download - 2019-11-11T204322.905.png
 
Anyway, here's my "final call" snow accumulation forecast that I posted across social media to family and friends. I made this earlier this morning and I still haven't seen a reason to change my map. I believe mountain peaks... especially Smokies, Blacks, Balsams, and Roan Highlands... should do well with northwest flow snow that'll do some upsloping. Anyone above 4,000' should see up to 4-6 inches and between 2,500' to 4,000' should see 2-4 inches. There will be some snow spillovers into valleys... especially Asheville and Boone... that could accumulate up to an inch. Outside mountains, I am not forecasting any accumulation... but I highlighted the area that *could* see a surprise flurry event if we do get a brief rain-to-snow changeover before the end of event.

I'm a current GIS graduate student at NC State so I used my new ArcGIS skills to put together this map. Fun stuff.Chance_of_Snow_11_13_ver8_2.png
 
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