Was just about to post this lol
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Pattern Nippy November
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
- Start date
Was just about to post this lol
Avalanche
Member
I dont want to temper my expectations, i want them to be met for just once.
SnowNiner
Member
NoSnowATL
Member
Yea he already said so he can’t go back, I see what he is saying but when you have 7k followers you kinda get what you pay for. If you take the Kirk Mellish approach you can’t go wrong.
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Jon
Member
Mentions -NAO causing trouble in December and mentions southern sliders near the holidays (aka late Dec) but then says don’t get carried away...
sorry but if someone like HM mentions southern sliders, I’m going to get carried away. But I get it, it’s hard to repeat a blockbuster -NAO wall to wall winter. We shouldn’t expect that.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The persistent positive atmospheric angular momentum anomaly in the subtropics is definitely eye-opening and it argues for a really active southern stream for the foreseeable future and the next time the MJO comes rolling thru the Central Pacific & Western Hemisphere in about a month or so from now. I can certainly see where HM is coming from regarding a possible southern stream disturbance near or just after the holiday season. A lot of this timing wise depends on how fast this MJO wave dislodges from the Indian Ocean.
Also unrelated but probably an important piece of information to keep in your back pocket later in the winter:
SnowNiner
Member
Mentions -NAO causing trouble in December and mentions southern sliders near the holidays (aka late Dec) but then says don’t get carried away...sorry but if someone like HM mentions southern sliders, I’m going to get carried away.
But I get it, it’s hard to repeat a blockbuster -NAO wall to wall winter. We shouldn’t expect that.
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He went all "game of thrones" on it with the Winter is Coming declaration! Can't walk that back. lol.
I know what he means and I'm not expecting much honestly (been doing this too long). But this is the internet...horse is out of the barn and we're all weenies.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Atleast the drought looks to be in jeopardy!
NCSNOW
Member
I'll be in Boone with a lot of Ragin Cajuns visiting. Long as the wind is under 15mph so we can throw the ball, I want complain. Georgia Southern 35-50mph was ridiculous and cost us dearly back on Halloween.
Rain is pretty much already dead to the forum due to winter's early start. Go wintry or go home until further notice.
NoSnowATL
Member
I’ll be in Gatlinburg that first week in December so I’m hoping for a nice modeled anafrontal passage in that time frame ? ?
pcbjr
Member
Speak like a Champion; play like a Champion; win like a Champion ...
MichaelJ
Member
Ant is right, it is possible to see a great pattern including a -NAO but it is way too early to actually predict it will happen. Just having it on the table for a change is reason enough to get a little excited just don't go overboard. Jon in a previous post is also correct too, anyone here expecting a wire to wire cold winter are in for a major disappointment. Best we can hope for is some cold air timing just right with precipitation events at times this winter.
Don't sleep on the first week of December. May end up with too much of a SER response to anything digging into the SW. However a well timed clipper and polar front with a sheared wave riding through in a split flow and you have a messy early season system
Edit. Not even sure if it's a true split flow
Edit. Not even sure if it's a true split flow
pcbjr
Member
By late next next week, a upper level high builds over the Gulf of Mexico, so late next week (and into parts of early December) it is going to be warm across the east due to this upper level high pushing warm air northeast. Addition to the upper level high, a trough builds over the western states.
With this pattern, this is going to favor storms cutting late this month. As the pattern transitions, storms would start to track underneath the western trough from Baja California and tracking towards Texas. As early December comes around, the upper level high will slowly push east to allow cold air to push further south and east. This is setting up for an icing event, for now. It looks like the -NAO will still be around, so if that upper high gets out of the way, we could see some Miller-A storms as well.
The map below is just showing on where the winter weather battle zone will be for now. This "battle zone" maybe further northwest, or it maybe right where I placed it on the map. The "battle zone" is all going to depend on that upper level high and how far south and east the trough builds.
We'll see how things start to pan out with this. We'll need to keep an eye on the progression of the upper level high and other factors downstream. Nothing is promising yet, I'm just putting idea's out.
With this pattern, this is going to favor storms cutting late this month. As the pattern transitions, storms would start to track underneath the western trough from Baja California and tracking towards Texas. As early December comes around, the upper level high will slowly push east to allow cold air to push further south and east. This is setting up for an icing event, for now. It looks like the -NAO will still be around, so if that upper high gets out of the way, we could see some Miller-A storms as well.
The map below is just showing on where the winter weather battle zone will be for now. This "battle zone" maybe further northwest, or it maybe right where I placed it on the map. The "battle zone" is all going to depend on that upper level high and how far south and east the trough builds.
We'll see how things start to pan out with this. We'll need to keep an eye on the progression of the upper level high and other factors downstream. Nothing is promising yet, I'm just putting idea's out.
NoSnowATL
Member
That upper level high in the GOM might be the poop like the SER was last year, something to watch for this winter.
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Obvious trend with the ridge starting to appear again 
raging -nao and a SER, gotta love weather models.
Seems to be entering from the gulf side? Maybe this is not a permanent fixture. I’ll take my chances with those heights over Greenland. Also, shocker our PNA is hot garbage ?
good spot... first week of Dec is certainly a transition week into 09-10 redux, only on steroids this time. That recurring -nao feature with come back every 3 weeks until the first of May. Earthwide AN background state will become a myth. Look for many areas south of I-20 seeing a 20 inch seasonal snowfall. Raleigh will bust too east for storm tracks though, oops.
Gfs definitely looks like it’s own ensemble around that time aswell, pacific pattern is disgusting but matches the MJO phase at that time 
the good news is we have ten days to collectively wishcast that pacific ridge further east by 1000 miles... We can do it!
The ridge although it looks ominous on modeling looks like it’ll be fairly short lived in general and even when it’s around we may have a good high pressure system funneling cold air down us so it’s not too warm .. warmest I saw it get was mid 70s for a few days... I’ll take it for a little relaxing ... I do have a feeling we are going to have a lot of crazy weather news in the next two weeks all across the United States
SnowNiner
Member
Overnight the GEFS lost the Greenland ridging in the long range. Starts around the 5th and it's completely gone by the end of the run. Last year redux? -NAO mirage for the winter? We'll see. I'm starting to think we revert to the -EPO for cold shots and hope for timing again. Persistence forecasting from the last 10 years.
It will come back by tonight. The rollercoaster continues.
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tennessee storm
Member
And it will be gone again by tomorrow afternoon ... models don’t have clue that far out... why even bother looking
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
For real. No sense in getting worried about anything more than 10 days out at this time.
Ethan80963!
Member
Nobody needs to worry about what models show long-range they are bouncing around a lot here's an example. Here are the last 4 runs of the GEFS. As seen many big changes so I don't think there's anything to worry about yet.
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Yes, until we see some consistent runs for things past 7 days, there really is no telling what will happen further out than that.
There are some quasi-consistent features in that animation, though. I think the way to use LR guidance is to try and identify things that can influence the general pattern and go from there. Watching for trends in the strength and duration of those can provide clues to how things may develop over that period. Obviously, things won't turn out exactly like the models show, but you can glean some info about how the overall pattern is likely to evolve, which will then give you an idea of the general weather pattern we're likely to see in the SE. Then, refine that outlook as we move forward in time and the strength, configuration, and duration of these features become more clearly defined.
Getting married to a specific solution 10+ days out is unwise. But attempting to get a sense of how the general pattern may evolve can be a useful exercise.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Unless the pattern 10 days out shows a massive snow storm, and then I'm picking out my dress!
Just be sure to hang onto your receipt!
From Maxar this morning, the GEFS cold bias has been bad in the SE US the last 30 days:
“The GFS EN is a colder outlier in the 6-10 Day period, projecting 116.7 GWHDDs. For comparison, our forecast is 110.5 GWHDDs, while other models are additionally warmer (GFS OP at 100.8; Euro OP at 106.6; Euro EN at 107.2). The GFS EN has carried a cold bias at this lead time of late, and thus the colder output may not be reliable. This bias is evident in the GEFS warmer output now projected in the 1-5 Day period when compared to that at 6-10 days lead. In the past 30 days of observations, the GFS EN has averaged too cold for average temperatures by 6° in Atlanta, Washington, DC and New York City, while cold biases of ~4° are in Cincinnati, Minneapolis, Philadelphia and St. Louis. The model has averaged too cold by 3° in Boston and 2° in Chicago. Using the observed biases of the past 30 days, the map at the end of this discussion shows what the 6-10 Day GFS EN would look like in its 0z run today with a bias correction applied. The data suggests that the risk to our forecast is additionally warmer along the East Coast. Our forecast is similar to the bias corrected data in the Midwest.”
“The GFS EN is a colder outlier in the 6-10 Day period, projecting 116.7 GWHDDs. For comparison, our forecast is 110.5 GWHDDs, while other models are additionally warmer (GFS OP at 100.8; Euro OP at 106.6; Euro EN at 107.2). The GFS EN has carried a cold bias at this lead time of late, and thus the colder output may not be reliable. This bias is evident in the GEFS warmer output now projected in the 1-5 Day period when compared to that at 6-10 days lead. In the past 30 days of observations, the GFS EN has averaged too cold for average temperatures by 6° in Atlanta, Washington, DC and New York City, while cold biases of ~4° are in Cincinnati, Minneapolis, Philadelphia and St. Louis. The model has averaged too cold by 3° in Boston and 2° in Chicago. Using the observed biases of the past 30 days, the map at the end of this discussion shows what the 6-10 Day GFS EN would look like in its 0z run today with a bias correction applied. The data suggests that the risk to our forecast is additionally warmer along the East Coast. Our forecast is similar to the bias corrected data in the Midwest.”
By "cold bias" does that mean the pattern its modeling is correct and temp departures are being over estimated? Or is it not even getting the pattern right?
Storm5
Member
It’s like Shane pointed out . The model uses algorithms in order to spit out a solution . You can’t just blanket a model and say it has a cold bias . There is a reason it spits out a cold solution . Now maybe there are flaws with how it comes up with those solutions but it’s not like it’s just spitting out cold to be cold
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