Lol this look and it’s still not cold enough 
*edit wait a minute looks like the euro might show something the next frame
*edit wait a minute looks like the euro might show something the next frame
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Muddy March 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Jesus euro really trying to do something ... just do it euro just do it to us already!
Honestly as much as that’s true .. I can see this trending colder and still I can see us getting heavier rates and bring that cold air down .. this has to atleast be watched for the potential ..
Eh I’d rather see the EPS improve, 00z/12z EPS runs had 0 means across all of NC/SC, which is terrible, let’s see what it shows soon
And just as I suspected it does just that... it’s a coastal storm but wow ... a couple more miles NORTH WEST (where do we know those words from) and this is a bigger deal
I would normally be intrigued by this but after this winter, I’m not at all, get this under hour 100 and I get interesting, this could easily become another rugpull 
I’m banking on a cold rain, it’s been the story of this winter, just hard to get excited or anything, especially given this is hour 180 plus, we’ve seen so many day 7+ storms this year lol
I'm going to wait until the GFS gets on board before I get too excited. Good sign when the Euro shows snow on the Coast. That means temps might be cold enough for the Midlands of SC to get snow. Just 50-100 west shift would be good enough for us. Too bad this will likely disappear in the next 12 hours or so .
Last edited:
Lol that’s almost just like feb 2004 
I’d rather it be there with the northwest trend to come
Well I think the problem, is that we’ve seen systems far to are south this year at that range on models, and we still lose, just really nothing to be optimistic about at that range imo
For example, models can’t be trusted. This ended up being 50F with light rain 
ew 
0.1" way down here on 3/6? This is an extreme run out at day 7 that looks nothing like other models. I fully expect the next run to look totally different.
Has it ever accum snowed here that late? It did a little 3/13/1993. Also, oddly enough, the 2nd largest snow ever here was only two days earlier than 3/6, the 3/4/1837 doozy of a coastal.
I give the crazy Doc a 2% chance of being right with a coastal accum snow then for here. esp with -PNA/+AO/+NAO!
The SENC, (NC Coast's) have had (some) of their biggest snowfalls, in Muddy March..
(Wilmington Stats)
3/22/18751.0"
3/22/1883 2.0"
3/7 1890 .03"
3/30 1915 1.0"
3/13 1926 0.6"
3/1 1927 4.5"
3/3 1931 0.1"
3/15/1934 1.0"
3/26/1947 0.1"
3/9/1960- 6.2"
3/2/1962 0.3
3/6/1962 0.8
3/6/1965 0.4
3/1/1980 6.6"
3/24/1983 4.2"
3/12/2017 1.1
(so there's that)..
(Wilmington Stats)
3/22/18751.0"
3/22/1883 2.0"
3/7 1890 .03"
3/30 1915 1.0"
3/13 1926 0.6"
3/1 1927 4.5"
3/3 1931 0.1"
3/15/1934 1.0"
3/26/1947 0.1"
3/9/1960- 6.2"
3/2/1962 0.3
3/6/1962 0.8
3/6/1965 0.4
3/1/1980 6.6"
3/24/1983 4.2"
3/12/2017 1.1
(so there's that)..
| |
Most of the operational models are showing something at the day 7 mark. Do I believe it, no way. Not until we get a lot closer. Here's the 6z GFSv16:
Lol
Here's the next frame (would be a nice hit for many):
The only thing I can say is someday one of these models will be correct. The eastern Carolinas are due.
The Midlands of SC are due. Eastern Carolinas got hit in early Jan 2018
Nomanslandva
Member
Perfect example of what has happened numerous times this year. As I sit here wedged in at 33 with rain.
A decent hit for most of the SE areas east of the Appalachians .I guess we can say GFSv16/Euro VS GFS/GEFS/EPS VS Icon/Cmc assuming the models are not once again completely incorrect, which I'm not even remotely confident if that's the case.
True, but mostly areas from Georgetown and points south and west towards SE South Carolina/Florence. Also from Wilmington and points north and also areas around Lumberton. Myrtle Beach/Whiteville/Fayetteville areas got screwed over on the early Jan 2018 winter storm.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Nobody east of the mountains in NC has gone longer without a one footer than places like Laurinburg, Raeford, Fayetteville, Dunn, & Smithfield. Portions of Cumberland, Robeson, Hoke, & Scotland counties have gone nearly a century without a 12”+ storm. I’ll obviously have to make some tweaks to the eastern part of this map as the Dec 2000 & Feb 1989 storms have some east of 95 in the central-northern coastal plain a foot or more
Last edited:
0.2 is 0.1 more than CAE has seen in over 7 years.
LovingGulfLows
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 1,376
- Reaction score
- 3,613
This period is definitely beginning to look interesting. A cutoff is trying to phase with the northern stream. Ive been slowly watching to see if models would ever pull it off and they're starting to. Thats definitely a classical way to bring snow this far south late in the season.
Euro is pretty crazy with coastal SE snow in March, but given the anomalous events that have happened so far this winter, I'm not totally discounting it.
Heavy breathing. Time this perfect and it's a storm some talk about the rest of their lives. Even as is right now it's not a bad look at all. Still not a lot of support from the ensembles though which is frustrating
SWVAwxfan
Member
Umm. No.
SWVAwxfan
Member
Getting a decent little ice storm here this morning. Some of the pines are sagging a bit.
SWVAwxfan
Member
I doubt this is gonna happen.
HugeSnowStick
Member
This so-called winter for the eastern SE is over, toast...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
SWVAwxfan
Member
Maybe for your backyard.
lexxnchloe
Member
GFS06 did look ALOT better than that warm low over DC
lexxnchloe
Member
Its time to start preparing.
Yeah I’m preparing for another rainstorm
cd2play
Member
Fixed