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Pattern Muddy March 2021

Myfrotho704_ said:
Backed off on the GFS/GEFS, but v16 was a bit colder, hopefully models trend warmer in time !
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Before then, remember for March 2nd when the GFS was way colder than the Euro and the GFS had very close calls to ZR whereas the Euro hardly even had any CAD or rain? Well, since then the GFS has warmed some, but the EPS has trended significantly colder, especially with today's Happy Hour run, and now has a full blown CAD with generous QPF (see top map). The 2nd map shows 850s, which are largely in the +3 to +6 C range for the major CAD areas of NC/SC/GA.

Note that with a solid wedge from an Arctic high, 850s of +3 to +6 C are right in the wheelhouse for major SE CAD region ZR events per history. This Arctic high has a cross polar connection and it comes down courtesy of the TPV. Just 3 days earlier (Feb 27) in NW Canada, it has lows in the -40s F, highs in the -30s F, and 850s as cold as -40 C! So this is absolutely frigid air! Also note that there have been a good number of major ZR/IP events ~March 2nd in the SE in history such as 1948, 1960, 1962, and 1980.

So, this is back to a "need to be watched" imo, especially for the major CAD areas, even if it doesn't trend colder than this run. Note that this is now only 5 days out. not in fantasy land. If it were to trend even colder and/or the high trend stronger to, say, 1035 mb or stronger, there could potentially be a more widespread wintry mess on March 2-3, including more IP and maybe even snow in some areas. So, keep your eyes on this for the time being.

ecmen_18_ps_us_hr-0024_0138.png

ecmen_18_p850ts_us_h_0120.png

****Edited for typo as 850s are +3 to +6 C, not -3 to -6 lol.
 
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SD said:
This is why we need composite maps haha
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This might have been discussed before and if so, I apologize for the repeat question, but what do you mean by composite maps? What do they help with?
 
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GaWx said:
As shown, 0Z Icon (and 18Z and I think 12Z Icon) and 18Z Euro have a ZR threat now for 3/2-3. Although cold biased always need to be kept in mind, this potentially may be a real deal considering how cold the origins of this Arctic high are.
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Icon has been way to aggressive with LLVL cold in wedges lately, that’s probably more like 33-36 and rain
 
mrdaddyman said:
This might have been discussed before and if so, I apologize for the repeat question, but what do you mean by composite maps? What do they help with?
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Just 500mb and surface temps maps that show what the US would look like in each mjo phase by month, then in biweekly segments, then by enso phase during those time periods. then add in a few other variables. It would certainly be interesting to see where those have us going if we do get an mjo progression from P7-1
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
So depressing View attachment 76997
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Probably fairly close to average unless you drop rain or clouds in. That big gyre though could be problematic for any warm-up if it stayed around. On the bright side the op Euro was in the bottom 10% of the suite with the cold shot at days 9-10
 
OTOH, 0Z CMC joins Icon/Euro with a ZR threat as it actually has some in WNC 3/8. Of course, it is an often too cold model. But this airmass origin is extremely cold.
 
The AO, NAO, and PNA combo couldn’t be much worse than it is for overall cold pattern prospects. So, any cold would likely be short lived.
 
GaWx said:
The AO, NAO, and PNA combo couldn’t be much worse than it is for overall cold pattern prospects. So, any cold would likely be short lived.
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Yeah the v16 shows that then torches us/AN temps , I’d imagine once the wannabe rex Block in the pacific falls apart as the trough wants to move East, that brings back SW flow and westernly momentum to kick the EC trough out, but that’s just speculation
 
Look out CAD folks as this is even colder with a stronger high!

ecmop_00_p850ts_us_h_0108.png

Verbatim, this ends up as just a cold rain, but we know better as far as potential is concerned. Keep watching.
 
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Eh this looks like a in-situ CAD setup at best, N/S energy in Canada ruins any forcing for descent 1118448D-C523-4517-96F5-1D429BB7BFE1.png
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I personally struggle with the idea we want to get warm too quickly. You who love warm/hot weather get 7-8 months of it with very few, if any breaks in it. Cloudy days are the norm this winter but once we get to April, it is pretty much never ending sunny and hot days until late October (barring hurricanes). With the models continuing with their samba runs, it becomes tideous to try and figure out which point on their dart board is correct. As for severe, NO thanks, people die and property gets destroyed when it happens.
 
MichaelJ said:
I personally struggle with the idea we want to get warm too quickly. You who love warm/hot weather get 7-8 months of it with very few, if any breaks in it. Cloudy days are the norm this winter but once we get to April, it is pretty much never ending sunny and hot days until late October (barring hurricanes). With the models continuing with their samba runs, it becomes tideous to try and figure out which point on their dart board is correct. As for severe, NO thanks, people die and property gets destroyed when it happens.
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No one is advocating for heat, just mild seasonable weather which this time of year is 60s! You want it to stay below average and cool? That just means 50s then we will jump straight to summer with no in between. That’s exactly what happens every year that we have a cool spring .
 
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