FamouslyHot
Member
I posted another reply without seeing this. I do know the new gfs is supposed to be much more sensitive for tropical development. Looks like we have a good example on its very first day!
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Pattern Muddy March 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I posted another reply without seeing this. I do know the new gfs is supposed to be much more sensitive for tropical development. Looks like we have a good example on its very first day!
Yep it worked
Okay now this is something I can endorse .. wait would this be severe weather or run of the mill
More sensitive for tropical dev, which includes more false alarms than the prior version. Just when we got a version that didn’t keep spitting out a bunch of fakes.
Could be both
Made it up to 59 but it's starting to rain now
Is that Tucson?
Let’s just turn every pattern favorable for severe weather I guess 
Top shelf...
To give a good example of the new GFS reducing the cold bias of the prior version:
Yesterday’s 6Z GFS, the last run of the old version, along with prior runs all had only 68-69 for a high at KSAV yesterday:
wxweb.meteostar.com
The first new version run, yesterday’s 12Z, had 73 and the 18Z of yesterday had 74. The actual high was 78:
wxweb.meteostar.com
So, during the very short term, the old version runs were too cold with KSAV Monday high by a whopping 9-10! The first two new GFS runs were too cold by “only” 4-5. So, a nice reduction in cold bias there.
By the way, the warmer new version GFS runs had nothing to do with cloud cover, as that was similar on the runs of both versions.
Yesterday’s 6Z GFS, the last run of the old version, along with prior runs all had only 68-69 for a high at KSAV yesterday:
MeteoStar Home > User
The first new version run, yesterday’s 12Z, had 73 and the 18Z of yesterday had 74. The actual high was 78:
MeteoStar Home > User
So, during the very short term, the old version runs were too cold with KSAV Monday high by a whopping 9-10! The first two new GFS runs were too cold by “only” 4-5. So, a nice reduction in cold bias there.
By the way, the warmer new version GFS runs had nothing to do with cloud cover, as that was similar on the runs of both versions.
FamouslyHot
Member
Can't miss a tropical threat if everything is a tropical threat ?More sensitive for tropical dev, which includes more false alarms than the prior version. Just when we got a version that didn’t keep spitting out a bunch of fakes.
Sunday might be a day where we get organized thunderstorms off the mountains
Hopefully they didn’t create another Crazy Uncle, Bastardi’s nickname for an older version of the CMC which had so many fake TCs that it became a laughingstock. It kind of is intuitive that a warmer GFS version would have more TC geneses.
We’ll know if @Ollie Williams follows them in one of his threads.
Never to early for a MCS 
We’re so close to dumping this out west 
We don’t wanna push for these warm patterns too much. Soon it won’t be spring but summer and those warm pattern will give u tons of heat and humidity and 0 storm activity .. that is the dreaded combo
Meh if we get stuck in a SER then there would probably be storms but a huge ridge East of the Rockies like how some modes have in the LR = no rain
She’s headed west 
Lol
Lol 
Tbh the western dump that’s getting trended towards has a effect on all that past, I’m willing to Bet the GFS is to progressive and the icon/CMC have a better idea
Add this to the 1,000,000 time ive seen this, lol if it connects to those lower heights near the Baja we’re gonna find a way for more severe weather 
Probably
And for your troubles @Myfrotho704_ ill even give you a flurry even tho you don’t deserve it
Lol I thought they upgraded this thing !!! 
I like this, probably wouldn’t be a high tornado threat but damaging wind/hail threat 
I'm trying to find better data but I saw some hints earlier that something like that is favored in P5 april. Hence why I needed the data in the whamby thread
You wake up.. it’s almost mid April ... and all day it stays in the 30s ... and scene
It’s so hard to see some good hail .. I’ve been begging for a hail storm since we got quarter sized one afternoon a couple years back... since then it’s been a pea sized disaster
Us pushing and wishing for anything won't do diddly. So wish and push away for whatever as it has no effect. The summer pattern is already determined. We and the models just don't know what that is.
Gotta like these flat sort of setups with troughs to our NW, means long straight mid/upper level Hodographs which favor large hail
Oh god it seems as if we’ve intruded on GA’s smoke sesh this afternoon ?
UK = about to dump out west 
Lol. I haven't even had one drink in months though I probably could use one! And I don't do weed or any drugs.
LickWx
Member
We couldn’t even get that in March this year let alone second week of April which that cold has never happened that late.
Yes we know GA
