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Pattern Muddy March 2021

SD said:
I'm a little concerned about a frost/freeze here honestly.
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That's climo, bro! There's no telling what will actually happen as they don't show an actual freeze at RAH (other than the 12Z Crazy Uncle), but RAH has had a freeze in April 3 years in a row, 14 of the past 21 Aprils, and 52 of the last 71 Aprils. I just hope the models aren't overdoing this supposed little cool spell, but they likely are due to cold bias even with the GFS op apparently not being as cold biased as before. I'd be happy to get down to the 40s here for a few days. 30s would be highly doubtful here notwithstanding the 12Z Crazy Uncle.
 
GaWx said:
That's climo, bro! There's no telling what will actually happen as they don't show an actual freeze at RAH (other than the 12Z Crazy Uncle), but RAH has had a freeze in April 3 years in a row, 14 of the past 21 Aprils, and 52 of the last 71 Aprils. I just hope the models aren't overdoing this supposed little cool spell, but they likely are due to cold bias even with the GFS op apparently not being as cold biased as before. I'd be happy to get down to the 40s here for a few days. 30s would be highly doubtful here notwithstanding the 12Z Crazy Uncle.
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What is your freeze criteria sub 32?

I'll have to look back but I don't think I did here either of the last 2 years
 
SD said:
What is your freeze criteria sub 32?

I'll have to look back but I don't think I did here either of the last 2 years
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I'm talking about 32 or lower at the official RAH airport site. So, getting a freeze there at some point in April would actually be more normal than not getting one, even since 2000.
 
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Busting low today. GSP did mention this possibility in the morning disc. Currently 62F and cloudy
 
GaWx said:
That's climo, bro! There's no telling what will actually happen as they don't show an actual freeze at RAH (other than the 12Z Crazy Uncle), but RAH has had a freeze in April 3 years in a row, 14 of the past 21 Aprils, and 52 of the last 71 Aprils. I just hope the models aren't overdoing this supposed little cool spell, but they likely are due to cold bias even with the GFS op apparently not being as cold biased as before. I'd be happy to get down to the 40s here for a few days. 30s would be highly doubtful here notwithstanding the 12Z Crazy Uncle.
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The airports freezes drive me nuts. Greensboro does not average freezes in April as late as we do, I don’t even think Washington DC does . Stupid airport .
 
Lickwx said:
The airports freezes drive me nuts. Greensboro does not average freezes in April as late as we do, I don’t even think Washington DC does . Stupid airport .
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- Even so, Greensboro still had 12 of the last 21 Aprils with 32 or lower (vs 14 of 21 at RAH).
- But since 1950, Greensboro has had 52 of 71 Aprils with 32 or lower vs 52 of 71 at RAH.

So, @Lickwx , I learned something new today. RAH airport may be colder than one would expect vs Greensboro considering that Greensboro is in a slightly colder location. Could it be that it is the Great Radiator of NC in @pcbjr Hogtown fashion?
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Now that I’m out here in desert southwest I guess we can truly say this is southern weather, almost have all our states covered!
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We need that guy from San Jose to post more so we cover California as well.I think we do got the entire southern us. My friend AJ who joined goes to school in Tucson so there’s aridzona .
 
More about the cold biased Crazy Uncle: 12Z on 4/3 has RAH well down into the 20s, upper 20s at ATL, and upper 30s down to about Hogtown (I don't believe it, @pcbjr , as it is far out on its own and it has a bad cold bias): it has a 1040 Arctic high parked over the SE...not going to happen!

canop_12_t2ms_us_h_0240.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Now that I’m out here in desert southwest I guess we can truly say this is southern weather, almost have all our states covered!
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Adding the MT guy, Mack, and Dewpoint Dan, we really now have the entire US covered. Maybe a name change is in order. Any suggestions? I'll go first:
How about American Wx? Opinions?
 
GaWx said:
- Even so, Greensboro still had 12 of the last 21 Aprils with 32 or lower (vs 14 of 21 at RAH).
- But since 1950, Greensboro has had 52 of 71 Aprils with 32 or lower vs 52 of 71 at RAH.

So, @Lickwx , I learned something new today. RAH airport may be colder than one would expect vs Greensboro considering that Greensboro is in a slightly colder location. Could it be that it is the Great Radiator of NC in @pcbjr Hogtown fashion?
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Yes , I do think the airport is a great radiator lol. Greensboro actually has warmer mean minimums than Raleigh outside of winter , and in winter they are very close despite Raleigh being roughly 2 degrees warmer ! The airport is next to a large complex of forest land made up of 6000 acres of state park ,800 acres of county park , and I want to say another 1000 acres , maybe a bit less of airport owned undeveloped land/ quarry. Could make a difference with less UHI than one would expect .
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
What do you look at for hail on these charts? Also what sized hail could you find in this type of environment shown above .. also does it matter that it’s so late ... or so early depending on how you look at it.. that’s not anywhere near peak heating
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Impressive MUcape/180mb MLcape advection, advection of steep mid level lapse rates, and a long straight Hodograph past 3km through 12km, high LCL-EL shear.
worth noting that cape that’s advecting in is driven by steep lapse rates, so while diurnal heating helps, sometimes you can advection those environments in via a strong subtropicalridge or LLJ
Also the “SHIP” or significant hail parameter, between 0-1 is meh
1-1.5 is decent
1.5-2 solid
2+ = good environment for large hail, although that’s only a piece to the puzzle and sometimes there’s reasons why low numbers could be deceiving or high numbers could be deceiving
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Impressive MUcape/180mb MLcape advection, advection of steep mid level lapse rates, and a long straight Hodograph past 3km through 12km, high LCL-EL shear.
worth noting that cape that’s advecting in is driven by steep lapse rates, so while diurnal heating helps, sometimes you can advection those environments in via a strong subtropicalridge or LLJ
Also the “SHIP” or significant hail parameter, between 0-1 is meh
1-1.5 is decent
1.5-2 solid
2+ = good environment for large hail, although that’s only a piece to the puzzle and sometimes there’s reasons why low numbers could be deceiving or high numbers could be deceiving
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The lower pwats help here as well so you aren't loading the updraft. The wbz being around 700mb isn't bad at all. Only concern id watch for here is that warm level around 700 and to see if it gets worse on future runs and tried to cap things out at least reduce the ML LRs
 
SD said:
The lower pwats help here as well so you aren't loading the updraft. The wbz being around 700mb isn't bad at all. Only concern id watch for here is that warm level around 700 and to see if it gets worse on future runs and tried to cap things out at least reduce the ML LRs
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Seems like there’s 2 rounds, first one has been wobbly,but it looks SB based F5D31F03-4C34-4810-944B-2BD7C7C0BC02.png31AAC3F5-7E11-4FB1-B103-BCFB24315D41.png
Then again in the morning, probably elevated but impressive CAPE already, especially given globals are to low most of the time 1D4A5453-C450-4703-AB6B-89EE76667C13.pngE1FD0129-66FF-439C-994D-05F93835DA7A.png
 
SD said:
Makes sense almost wonder if the Sunday morning stuff is a mcv/convectively originated wave
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Looks like it, altho it’s messy at H5 on the euro, but it shows energy for both waves 4224E04D-7EE4-4C51-9877-DF8203D57C25.png7F42FEC5-25B6-4716-8857-8100622E470C.png15436B46-FE36-4D48-861B-4185A11320FE.png2848AE96-8109-4E10-BCA8-F4968829D4F3.png
Also interesting trend for sat aft on the euro, really interested in seeing the short range models/CAMs on this, honestly potentially the most solid hail setup since that one that gave RC that hailstorm per models atm39CD0E65-4D8A-49A8-9EAD-75F8DFE55D1D.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looks like it, altho it’s messy at H5 on the euro, but it shows energy for both waves View attachment 80253View attachment 80254View attachment 80252View attachment 80255
Also interesting trend for sat aft on the euro, really interested in seeing the short range models/CAMs on this, honestly potentially the most solid hail setup since that one that gave RC that hailstorm per models atmView attachment 80251
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I'm really interested in this setup these wedge fronts usually pop a monster or 2. I. Interested in the storm motion Saturday. Do they ride toward the east and stay along and south of the moisture boundary or do they go into the less moisture air and become elevated?
 
SD said:
I'm really interested in this setup these wedge fronts usually pop a monster or 2. I. Interested in the storm motion Saturday. Do they ride toward the east and stay along and south of the moisture boundary or do they go into the less moisture air and become elevated?
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Wonder if we get left splits and get elevated left movers due to straight Hodographs, and left movers go over that wedge boundary and feed off MUcape
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Wonder if we get left splits and get elevated left movers due to straight Hodographs, and left movers go over that wedge boundary and feed off MUcape
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Yeahhh I'm ready to get this within the CAMs range. Right now it's just guesses and looking between the euro and nam there isn't a lot of consistency
 
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